Clippers vs. Timberwolves ATS Pick for 2/11 (Sports Betting)
For tonight’s game, I will discuss a matchup between two playoff hopefuls out west—the Clippers and Timberwolves.
Current Form
Clippers
Coming off their biggest win of the season, the Clippers rallied from 28 points down to beat the Celtics, 123-112, on Saturday night. Despite undergoing a mid-season roster overhaul, the Clippers looked surprisingly in sync. However, growing pains are imminent with four new players added to the rotation. Tonight marks the final game of the Clippers’ six-game road trip. Monday’s game is also their seventh in 12 days. Los Angeles is 19-14 when playing on one day’s rest.
Timberwolves
The Timberwolves return home Monday from a disappointing road trip. Minnesota squandered a great opportunity by losing all three games to below .500 teams. The Timberwolves have also lost six of their last seven games. However, the Timberwolves have remained competitive in these losses with a six-point average margin of defeat. Minnesota received a nice boost last game with Jeff Teague returning and now could receive another shot in the arm through Derrick Rose returning tonight. The Timberwolves will play this game on two day’s rest (4-9 record in such situations).
Edge: Timberwolves
Playing their seventh game in 12 days and the final game of the road trip, the Clippers will be far from fresh. Los Angeles is also is in the early stages of integrating all of the team’s new faces. Conversely, Minnesota—whose recent struggles have been overstated—will be well rested tonight.
Statistical Breakdown
Clippers
The Clippers have based their offensive attack on converting at the free-throw line and pick-and-roll efficiency. Los Angeles leads the NBA in percentage of points from free throws (19.6), free throws made per game (22.3), and free-throw attempts per offensive play (24.5%). Prior to the Tobias Harris trade, the Clippers were the only team with four players ranking in the top 50 in free throws attempted per game. Even without Harris, the Clippers still have three players (Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl Harrell) ranked 31 or better.
The Clippers rank third in pick and rolls run per game. However, they will miss Harris’ effectiveness as a pick-and-roll ball handler. Los Angeles now needs to find new ways to effectively generate offense out of the scheme.
The Clippers’ leaky interior defense got worse by trading away Marcin Gortat and Boban Marjanovic. Los Angeles currently ranks 24th in opposing points in the paint per game (50.6) and 20th in blocks per game (4.8). While newcomer Ivica Zubac is a talented offensive center, his deficiencies on the defensive end will compound the team’s issues.
Timberwolves
Minnesota’s offense revolves around Karl-Anthony Towns. Despite the team’s recent struggles, Towns continues to dominate. Over the team’s last four games, he has averaged 29 points, 12.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.0 block on a 64/53/83 shooting line. Towns’ offensive versatility makes him too big for undersized big men and too fast for traditional centers.
Minnesota has also relied on individual scoring contributions from Rose, Teague, and Andrew Wiggins. Similar to Towns, all three of these players score predominantly through two-pointers and free throws. The Timberwolves rank 10th in points from two-pointers per game (61.6), 12th in percentage of points from twos (55.3), and ninth in percentage of points from mid-range (11.9). Additionally, Minnesota ranks fifth in percentage of points from free throws (17.5%) and fourth in free-throws made per game (19.5).
Employing one of the league’s taller lineups, the Timberwolves thrive on the offensive glass. Minnesota is third in offensive rebounds per game (11.7) and offensive rebounding percentage (25.5). Subsequently, Minnesota leads the league in second-chance points per game (15.7).
Defensively, the Timberwolves emphasize forcing turnovers. Minnesota is sixth in steals per game (8.6) and steals per defensive play (7.5%). The Timberwolves convert these turnovers into scoring, as they are 10th in percentage of points off turnovers (15.7).
Edge: Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are an awful matchup for the Clippers. First off, the Clippers have a depleted big-man rotation that will struggle to guard Towns. Secondly, Minnesota does a better job than Los Angeles of defending without fouling. While the Clippers rank 27th in fouls per game, the Timberwolves rank 10th. Given both team’s dependence on scoring at the free-throw line, the foul disparity is a significant matchup advantage for Minnesota. Inhibiting the Clippers’ ability to score from the free-throw line will completely disrupt their offensive flow.
Minnesota also has a big advantage on the offensive glass. The Clippers rank among the league’s worst (24th) in opposing second-chance points per game. This could prove fatal against an elite second-chance points team like the Wolves. Finally, Los Angeles’ propensity to turn the ball over (20th in turnovers per game) isn’t an ideal match with Minnesota’s ball-hawking defense.
Line Analysis
The line for this game opened at -4 Minnesota. So far, the line has experienced minimal movement. The public appears to slightly favor the Timberwolves with 57% of public betting action placed on their spread. Trading away their best player (Harris) has created a negative public perception of the Clippers. As a result, I would expect Minnesota to receive a heavy amount of public action as the day progresses. The line should end up around five points.
Edge: Timberwolves
There is value in Minnesota’s low line at home. The Timberwolves’ line of -4 is an extremely low number for two relatively even teams with a significant rest disparity. Additionally, there is value in grabbing the line at its infant stages before undergoing upward movement.
Verdict: Timberwolves
Despite coming into this matchup on a losing streak, Minnesota is the side to back. The Timberwolves have a clear matchup advantage in Towns and their ability to dominate the offensive glass. The Clippers will struggle to find an offensive flow against a defense that doesn’t give up a lot of free throws. Additionally, the Clippers’ fatigue from their six-game road trip will be on full display. Take the Timberwolves at -4 in a wire-to-wire victory.
All stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com and NBA.com.