College Baseball NCAA Regional Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The College World Series is upon us. The CWS has some similarities to March Madness, but it is also unique in its own way. The college baseball NCAA tournament has numerous mini-tournaments within itself. There are 16 Regional sites with four teams facing off in a double-elimination tournament. The winner of that will play a best-of-three series against the other regional winner in their bracket. This round is called the Super Regionals and the winner of that is off to Omaha to complete the 8-team field. Once in Omaha, the eight teams are split into two brackets and play another four-team double-elimination tournament. Then finally, the two prevailing teams play a best-of-three series to determine the champion.
In the last 20 years, (1) seeds (top 16 overall) have won 14 of the 20 tournaments. Seeds (2) and (3) have won five championships and only one (4) seed (Fresno State 2008) has won it all. The number (1) overall seed has yet to hoist the trophy. We will dive into some advanced statistics to help us understand each team from an analytical standpoint, and help us pinpoint value. Unfortunately, we do not have odds for teams to make Omaha like we would the Final 4 in March Madness. In the upcoming articles, we will look at contenders to win the tournament, value picks, and day-by-day picks to win games.
Glossary:
K%: Strikeout percentage
BB%: Walk percentage
ISO: Isolated Power, extra-base hits only. SLG-AVG=ISO
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play. This excludes strikeouts, walks, and home runs because they are not technically hit into play and are affected by the defense. This is viewed as a lucky statistic.
wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus. This statistic is measured on a scale of 100. 100 being average. If a team has a 130 wRC+, they are 30 percent better than the average team.
GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls
LD%: Percentage of balls in play that are line drives.
HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s value than ERA.
LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.
For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.
Wake Forest Regional
Wake Forest’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 40th
Off BB%: 2nd
ISO: 9th
BABIP: 121st
wRC+: 5th
GB%: 20th
LD%: 135th
Off HR/FB%: 20th
Pitching
BB%: 3rd
K%: 1st
FIP: 1st
LOB%: 1st
GB%: 13th
LD%: 86th
HR/FB%: 240th
Wake Forest is a complete all-around team. They are the favorite for obvious reasons. They have one weakness and that is pitching HR/FB%, but I do not know if that will even matter. Solo HRs do not win tournaments. The only thing going against them is the number one overall seed hasn’t hoisted the trophy in the last 20 years.
Maryland’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 23rd
Off BB%: 12th
ISO: 3rd
BABIP: 100th
wRC+: 3rd
GB%: 215th
LD%: 303rd
Off HR/FB%: 10th
Pitching
BB%: 201st
K%: 157th
FIP: 227th
LOB%: 165th
GB%: 10th
LD%: 6th
HR/FB%: 297th
Maryland has probably the most volatile profile in the entire tournament. They boast an explosive offense that also is disciplined. Their pitching, on the other hand, is abysmal all the way around. They force ground balls at an elite rate, but without having that paired with anything else, it will be difficult to make a championship run.
Northeastern’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 69th
Off BB%: 163rd
ISO: 23rd
BABIP: 145th
wRC+: 31st
GB%: 98th
LD%: 249th
Off HR/FB%: 30th
Pitching
BB%: 7th
K%: 109th
FIP: 11th
LOB%: 13th
GB%: 73rd
LD%: 216th
HR/FB%: 24th
Northeastern has a solid offense and does grade well from a power perspective. Their pitching staff is borderline elite. They are elite in the areas that give power teams trouble. Being top 25 in four areas that correlate (BB%, FIP, LOB%, and HR/FB%) well together give them a chance at not only beating Maryland in the first game but possibly shocking everyone and giving Wake Forest a hell of a challenge.
Whoever comes out of this regional, in my opinion, will make it to Omaha. The Alabama regional does not measure up to these three teams and does not match up well.
Alabama Regional
Alabama’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 64th
Off BB%: 47th
ISO: 38th
BABIP: 156th
wRC+: 33rd
GB%: 41st
LD%: 210th
Off HR/FB%: 32nd
Pitching
BB%: 63rd
K%: 24th
FIP: 44th
LOB%: 5th
GB%: 167th
LD%: 161st
HR/FB%: 225th
Alabama is above-average offensively but not elite. The same can be said for their pitching too. They should win their regional but I do not see them getting to Omaha.
Troy’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 160th
Off BB%: 60th
ISO: 29th
BABIP: 189th
wRC+: 38th
GB%: 209th
LD%: 134th
Off HR/FB%: 9th
Pitching
BB%: 188th
K%: 18th
FIP: 59th
LOB%: 133rd
GB%: 55th
LD%: 148th
HR/FB%: 230th
Troy profiles out with elite power numbers. That paired with an above-average BB%, gives them to chance to string together numerous big innings. From a pitching perspective, Troy’s pitching staff is elite in K% and above average in GB%. Troy will give Boston College all it can handle and possibly upend Alabama.
Miami Regional
Miami’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 279th
Off BB%: 79th
ISO: 25th
BABIP: 29th
wRC+: 34th
GB%: 19th
LD%: 3rd
Off HR/FB%: 3rd
Pitching
BB%: 36th
K%: 17th
FIP: 74th
LOB%: 34th
GB%: 245th
LD%: 278th
HR/FB%: 287th
The only weakness of this Miami offense is their K%. They rank top 40 in ISO, wRC+, GB%, LD%, and Off HR/FB%. They are elite offensively. Pitching wise they are volatile. Ranking high in K%, but low in HR/FB% can produce a wide range of results. Their toughest test will come within their region. They have the potential to make a run to Omaha but Texas will have a lot to say about that.
Texas CWS Profile:
Off K%: 105th
Off BB%: 81st
ISO: 44th
BABIP: 101st
wRC+: 56th
GB%: 39th
LD%: 271st
Off HR/FB%: 90th
Pitching
BB%: 153rd
K%: 59th
FIP: 15th
LOB%: 27th
GB%: 28th
LD%: 61st
HR/FB%: 4th
Texas is not a flashy team but they do not have many weaknesses. They are only bottom 50 in one advanced statistic category (LD%). Texas is elite in HR/FB% and that will be key against the power of Miami’s offense. Texas matches up well against everyone in their region and is elite in areas that can propel them to Omaha. If they get past Miami, they will get past whoever comes out of the Stanford Regional.
Stanford Regional
Stanford’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 54th
Off BB%: 170th
ISO: 15th
BABIP: 42nd
wRC+: 16th
GB%: 229th
LD%: 129th
Off HR/FB%: 14th
Pitching
BB%: 220th
K%: 16th
FIP: 96th
LOB%: 131st
GB%: 136th
LD%: 158th
HR/FB%: 247th
Stanford is dependent on the home run. They are elite in ISO and Off HR/FB%. From the pitching perspective, they are average. They rank 95th or worse in every category except K%. That will not be good enough to make it to Omaha.
Texas A&M’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 188th
Off BB%: 1st
ISO: 100th
BABIP: 237th
wRC+: 109th
GB%: 30th
LD%: 167th
Off HR/FB%: 103rd
Pitching
BB%: 240th
K%: 29th
FIP: 61st
LOB%: 52nd
GB%: 20th
LD%: 129th
HR/FB%: 190th
Texas A&M is elite in BB% and GB% offensively. They are average in pretty much every other offensive category. Texas A&M’s pitching staff stands out in two areas K% and GB%. They will need to limit the walks, but I can easily see them meeting Texas in the Super Regional with a chance to go to Omaha.
LSU Regional
LSU’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 94th
Off BB%: 15th
ISO: 6th
BABIP: 57th
wRC+: 4th
GB%: 25th
LD%: 221st
Off HR/FB%: 17th
Pitching
BB%: 131st
K%: 3rd
FIP: 9th
LOB%: 70th
GB%: 265th
LD%: 1st
HR/FB%: 73rd
LSU is elite offensively ranking top 30 in BB%, ISO, wRC+, GB%, and HR/FB%. This lineup is going to be a handful for any team in this tournament. LSU’s pitching staff is borderline elite. They rank Top 10 in K%, FIP, and LD%. LSU is a top contender to win this tournament and anything less than that will be a disappointment.
Oregon State’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 176th
Off BB%: 5th
ISO: 84th
BABIP: 68th
wRC+: 44th
GB%: 99th
LD%: 168th
Off HR/FB%: 79th
Pitching
BB%: 40th
K%: 30th
FIP: 14th
LOB%: 39th
GB%: 133rd
LD%: 103rd
HR/FB%: 48th
Oregon State has a history of success in the CWS. This team is extremely well-balanced with few weaknesses, but I do not know if they have enough elite firepower to overcome the juggernaut of LSU.
Kentucky Regional
Kentucky’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 201st
Off BB%: 41st
ISO: 179th
BABIP: 6th
wRC+: 39th
GB%: 49th
LD%: 41st
Off HR/FB%: 216th
Pitching
BB%: 163rd
K%: 47th
FIP: 68th
LOB%: 6th
GB%: 25th
LD%: 60th
HR/FB%: 176th
Kentucky’s BABIP gives me concern because when you pair it with their below-average power numbers we are looking at an offense that has to manufacture the majority of their runs. Kentucky’s pitching staff has poise ranking top 30 in LOB% and GB%, but if it’s enough to win this regional is still to be seen.
West Virginia’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 95th
Off BB%: 39th
ISO: 57th
BABIP: 67th
wRC+: 30th
GB%: 116th
LD%: 211th
Off HR/FB%: 92nd
Pitching
BB%: 64th
K%: 72nd
FIP: 76th
LOB%: 25th
GB%: 15th
LD%: 33rd
HR/FB%: 228th
WVU’s offense is balanced and can definitely make some noise in this regional. Their pitching staff has some intriguing splits. Ranking top 35 in LOB%, GB%, and LD%, shows they play to their strengths. They will have to limit the HR but only LSU is top 45 in Off HR/FB%. I see them making it to the Super Regional against LSU but that’s as far as they go.
Auburn Regional
Auburn’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 230th
Off BB%: 78th
ISO: 60th
BABIP: 73rd
wRC+: 70th
GB%: 175th
LD%: 212th
Off HR/FB%: 47th
Pitching
BB%: 248th
K%: 104th
FIP: 126th
LOB%: 103rd
GB%: 276th
LD%: 210th
HR/FB%: 47th
Auburn, in my opinion, is the most vulnerable (1) seed in the entire tournament. They do not rank Top 40 in any category. I see them potentially losing their first game to Penn and do not see them making it out of this regional.
Penn’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 151st
Off BB%: 191st
ISO: 125th
BABIP: 44th
wRC+: 117th
GB%: 104th
LD%: 10th
Off HR/FB%: 255th
Pitching
BB%: 177th
K%: 6th
FIP: 6th
LOB%: 18th
GB%: 238th
LD%: 263rd
HR/FB%: 17th
Penn is average offensively but they are not horrendous. They are only elite in one area and that’s LD%. Their pitching staff is a completely different story. Penn’s pitching is elite in numerous key areas. They are top 20 in K%, FIP, LOB%, and HR/FB%. This is a unique staff. They are in play to beat Auburn in the first game and could possibly win this Regional.
Clemson’s Regional
Clemson’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 82nd
Off BB%: 112th
ISO: 173rd
BABIP: 13th
wRC+: 80th
GB%: 297th
LD%: 105th
Off HR/FB%: 117th
Pitching
BB%: 85th
K%: 39th
FIP: 77th
LOB%: 9th
GB%: 52nd
LD%: 219th
HR/FB%: 287th
Clemson’s offense is concerning. The only category they rank above 80th in is BABIP, which is not what you want to rank high in. Pitching staff-wise ranking 287th in HR/FB% is troubling. They will have their hands full in this regional as Tennessee profiles as a tough out.
Tennessee’s CWS Profile:
Off K%: 245th
Off BB%: 10th
ISO: 4th
BABIP: 128th
wRC+: 14th
GB%: 64th
LD%: 262nd
Off HR/FB%: 4th
Pitching
BB%: 6th
K%: 2nd
FIP: 4th
LOB%: 16th
GB%: 102nd
LD%: 3rd
HR/FB%: 264th
This Tennessee team is a contender to win this tournament. Offensively they rank top 15 in BB%, ISO, wRC+, and HR/FB%. Having power numbers paired with discipline is an extremely dangerous combination. Tennessee’s pitching staff is arguably better than their offense. They rank top 10 in BB%, K%, FIP, and LD%. Not to mention they are 16th in LOB%. I have Tennessee making it to Omaha and contending for a championship.
The four teams I see advancing to Omaha from these Super Regionals are as follows:
If you are feeling frisky you can parlay these four teams to the tune of +4370. Tune into our next article that breaks down the other four Super Regionals. If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions on the process you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!
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