College Baseball NCAA Regional Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Jun 02, 2023

The College World Series is upon us. The CWS has some similarities to March Madness, but it is also unique in its own way. The college baseball NCAA tournament has numerous mini-tournaments within itself. There are 16 Regional sites, with four teams facing off in a double-elimination tournament. The winner of that will play a best-of-three series against the other regional winner in their bracket. This round is called the Super Regionals, and the winner of that is off to Omaha to complete the 8-team field. Once in Omaha, the eight teams are split into two brackets and play another four-team double-elimination tournament. Then finally, the two prevailing teams play a best-of-three series to determine the champion.

In the last 20 years, (1) seeds (top 16 overall) have won 14 of the 20 tournaments. Seeds (2) and (3) have won five championships and only one (4) seed (Fresno State 2008) has won it all. The number (1) overall seed has yet to hoist the trophy. We will dive into some advanced statistics to help us understand each team from an analytical standpoint and help us pinpoint value. In the upcoming articles, we will look at contenders to win the tournament, value picks, and day-by-day picks to win games.

College Baseball NCAA Regional Odds, Picks & Predictions

Glossary:

K%: Strikeout percentage

BB%: Walk percentage

ISO: Isolated Power, extra-base hits only. SLG-AVG=ISO

BABIP: Batting average on balls in play. This excludes strikeouts, walks, and home runs because they are not technically hit into play and are affected by the defense. This is viewed as a lucky statistic.

wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus. This statistic is measured on a scale of 100. 100 being average. If a team has a 130 wRC+, they are 30 percent better than the average team.

GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls

LD%: Percentage of balls in play that are line drives.

HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher's value than ERA.

LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Florida Regional

Florida’s CWS Profile:</p

Off K%: 142nd
Off BB%: 128th
ISO: 2nd
BABIP: 169th
wRC+: 18th
GB%: 5th
LD%: 12th
Off HR/FB%: 6th

Pitching
BB%: 167th
K%: 7th
FIP: 38th
LOB%: 57th
GB%: 85th
LD%: 267th
HR/FB%: 268th

Florida’s offense has elite power numbers (top 10 in ISO and HR/FB%). They also have an elite batted ball profile, which is rare when it comes to an elite power team. Pitching-wise, they are elite in K% but are only slightly above average in other areas. This staff will need to limit the home runs and play better than their ranking of 268th in HR/FB%. They draw arguably the hardest Super Regional in the entire tournament.

UCONN’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 48th
Off BB%: 29th
ISO: 83rd
BABIP: 32nd
wRC+: 26th
GB%: 199th
LD%: 154th
Off HR/FB%: 84th

Pitching
BB%: 95th
K%: 50th
FIP: 52nd
LOB%: 36th
GB%: 248th
LD%: 223rd
HR/FB%: 124th

UCONN has a disciplined offense that ranks top 50 in K% and BB%, but they do not excel in any other area. Overall they do not rank top 20 in any category. This is concerning because they will need to beat out some extremely talented teams, and I unfortunately do not see that happening.

Texas Tech’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 34th
Off BB%: 18th
ISO: 35th
BABIP: 35th
wRC+: 13th
GB%: 107th
LD%: 131st
Off HR/FB%: 72nd

Pitching
BB%: 208th
K%: 56th
FIP: 101st
LOB%: 104th
GB%: 4th
LD%: 36th
HR/FB%: 248th

Texas Tech’s offense will carry them as far as they go. They rank top 40 in K%, BB%, ISO, and wRC+. The pitching staff, on the other hand, is shaky, and the pairing of 208th in BB% and 248th in HR/FB% is terrifying. Their dependency on getting ground balls is not a recipe for a deep tournament run.

South Carolina Regional

South Carolina’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 294th
Off BB%: 4th
ISO: 14th
BABIP: 188th
wRC+: 35th
GB%: 68th
LD%: 203rd
Off HR/FB%: 1st

Pitching
BB%: 27th
K%: 14th
FIP: 8th
LOB%: 30th
GB%: 86th
LD%: 197th
HR/FB%: 143rd

South Carolina has one of the most unique offensive profiles in the tournament. They rank top 15 in BB%, ISO, and HR/FB%, while also ranking bottom 15 in K%. Their tournament advancement will hinge on those statistics because Campbell and NC State are elite in several of those areas. The pitching staff is one of the best in the entire country. They rank top 30 in BB%, K%, FIP, and LOB%. Whoever comes out of this stacked region will advance to Omaha.

Campbell’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 134th
Off BB%: 37th
ISO: 5th
BABIP: 8th
wRC+: 2nd
GB%: 45th
LD%: 222th
Off HR/FB%: 13th

Pitching
BB%: 191st
K%: 41st
FIP: 24th
LOB%: 107th
GB%: 29th
LD%: 15th
HR/FB%: 14th

Campbell is the dark horse to make it out of this Super Regional. They are one of only two teams to rank top 30 in Off HR/FB% and Pitching HR/FB% (Northeastern is the other team). Pair that with their plate discipline on offense and solid pitching K% and GB%, they have the recipe to make an unprecedented run.

NC State’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 30th
Off BB%: 63rd
ISO: 26th
BABIP: 170th
wRC+: 37th
GB%: 26th
LD%: 26th
Off HR/FB%: 50th

Pitching
BB%: 29th
K%: 26th
FIP: 18th
LOB%: 46th
GB%: 78th
LD%: 230th
HR/FB%: 160th

If NC State was in another regional, they probably would be a solid team to make some noise. They are well-balanced all the way around, but I do not think they have enough firepower to make a deep run.

Coastal Carolina Regional

Coastal Carolina’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 127th
Off BB%: 104th
ISO: 16th
BABIP: 14th
wRC+: 8th
GB%: 130th
LD%: 127th
Off HR/FB%: 22nd

Pitching
BB%: 225th
K%: 22nd
FIP: 196th
LOB%: 90th
GB%: 159th
LD%: 171st
HR/FB%: 294th

Coastal Carolina’s offense is solid, ranking top 25 in ISO, wRC+, and Off HR/FB%. Their pitching staff is completely another story. Ranking 225th in BB%, 196th in FIP, and 294th in HR/FB% is a recipe for disaster. I do not see them making it out of their own regional. They could also lose their opener to Rider, which is the only team to be bottom 50 in FB% (forces a lot of fly balls) and ranks top 30 in pitching in HR/FB% (limits HRs).

Duke’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 250th
Off BB%: 99th
ISO: 41st
BABIP: 146th
wRC+: 68th
GB%: 167th
LD%: 133rd
Off HR/FB%: 19th

Pitching
BB%: 126th
K%: 4th
FIP: 7th
LOB%: 20th
GB%: 34th
LD%: 18th
HR/FB%: 103rd

Duke’s offense is average. They are dependent on the home run. Their pitching staff is elite. They rank top 35 in K%, FIP, LOB%, GB%, and LD%. The pitching staff has the potential to carry this entire team out of this region and have a shot at making it to Omaha.

Virginia Regional

Virginia’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 8th
Off BB%: 89th
ISO: 69th
BABIP: 4th
wRC+: 7th
GB%: 203rd
LD%: 65th
Off HR/FB%: 109th

Pitching
BB%: 12th
K%: 13th
FIP: 7th
LOB%: 10th
GB%: 139th
LD%: 26th
HR/FB%: 189th

Virginia’s offense is a conundrum. They rank 7th in wRC+ but are also 4th in BABIP. They are only elite in one category, and that’s K%. I’m not sure how they will fare against a stellar pitching staff. Speaking of a stellar pitching staff, Virginia boasts an unreal top 15 ranking in BB%, K%, FIP, and LOB%. They have the potential to make a deep run.

East Carolina’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 38th
Off BB%: 91st
ISO: 118th
BABIP: 151st
wRC+: 97th
GB%: 253rd
LD%: 200th
Off HR/FB%: 118th

Pitching
BB%: 11th
K%: 10th
FIP: 23rd
LOB%: 8th
GB%: 200th
LD%: 227th
HR/FB%: 232nd

East Carolina’s offense is average at best. They only rank top 40 in one category, and that’s K%. Their pitching staff, on the other hand, is spectacular. They rank Top 25 in BB%, K%, FIP, and LOB%. The only issue is they are in a regional with two other elite pitching staffs. Unfortunately, their offense will have to outproduce their season numbers for them to advance to any other level.

Vanderbilt Regional

Vanderbilt’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 114th
Off BB%: 133rd
ISO: 122nd
BABIP: 242nd
wRC+: 158th
GB%: 216th
LD%: 251st
Off HR/FB%: 113th

Pitching
BB%: 150th
K%: 15th
FIP: 83rd
LOB%: 22nd
GB%: 239th
LD%: 12th
HR/FB%: 201st

Vanderbilt’s offense is abysmal. Their highest ranking is 113th in HR/FB%. This is arguably the worst offense among all sixteen (1) seeds, and it is not even close. Their pitching staff also leaves much to be desired. A ranking of 83rd in FIP and 201st in HR/FB% is concerning. If they make it out of this regional, I would be shocked to see them make it to Omaha.

Oregon’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 169th
Off BB%: 283rd
ISO: 32nd
BABIP: 63rd
wRC+: 58th
GB%: 252nd
LD%: 297th
Off HR/FB%: 37th

Pitching
BB%: 236th
K%: 158th
FIP: 201st
LOB%: 35th
GB%: 188th
LD%: 35th
HR/FB%: 161st

Oregon somehow has the best offense in this regional. They will need to hit home runs, and plenty of them, to advance to the Super Regional. Their pitching staff is a horrendous 201st in FIP. Whoever comes out of Oklahoma State’s regional will be making it to Omaha.

Oklahoma State Regional

Oklahoma State’s CWS Profile

Off K%: 196th
Off BB%: 53rd
ISO: 8th
BABIP: 34th
wRC+: 12th
GB%: 151st
LD%: 227th
Off HR/FB%: 15th

Pitching
BB%: 134th
K%: 12th
FIP: 50th
LOB%: 38th
GB%: 64th
LD%: 154th
HR/FB%: 270th

Oklahoma State’s offense is definitely power oriented. They will need to keep those numbers up because they draw a tough regional with several steller pitching staffs. Their own pitching staff leaves a decent to be desired for a (1) seed. They are balanced but not elite in much outside of K%. Also, Oral Roberts will not be a pushover in their first game.

Oral Roberts CWS Profile:

Off K%: 33rd
Off BB%:108th
ISO: 39th
BABIP: 25th
wRC+: 19th
GB%: 44th
LD%: 140th
Off HR/FB%: 77th

Pitching
BB%: 25th
K%: 28th
FIP: 32nd
LOB%: 2nd
GB%: 132nd
LD%: 20th
HR/FB%: 131st

Oral Roberts is an extremely underrated (4) seed. Their offense is disciplined and not super dependent on any one aspect, while their pitching staff is borderline elite and can give any lineup trouble. I would not be shocked if they won their opening-day game against Oklahoma State. If they can pull that off, then they can definitely win this region.

Dallas Baptist’s CWS Profile

Off K%: 168th
Off BB%: 61st
ISO: 7th
BABIP: 107th
wRC+: 22nd
GB%: 80th
LD%: 267th
Off HR/FB%: 27th

Pitching
BB%: 60th
K%: 9th
FIP: 10th
LOB%: 26th
GB%: 195th
LD%: 212th
HR/FB%: 80th

Dallas Baptist could easily be the best team in this entire Super Regional. Ranking top 10 in K% and FIP gives them a ceiling-level potential. They are dependent on power offensively, but they are disciplined enough to manufacture runs too. I have them making it to Omaha and continuing an incredible season.

Indiana State Regional

Indiana State’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 194th
Off BB%: 275th
ISO: 140th
BABIP: 159th
wRC+: 156th
GB%: 48th
LD%: 36th
Off HR/FB%: 133rd

Pitching
BB%: 10th
K%: 53rd
FIP: 22nd
LOB%: 4th
GB%: 56th
LD%: 79th
HR/FB%: 158th

Indiana State’s offense is, to put it kindly, underwhelming. Ranking 156th in wRC+ is not going to get it done. Their pitching staff is solid, but pitching cannot score runs. I do not see them making it out of this region, let alone making a run at Omaha.

Iowa’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 68th
Off BB%: 31st
ISO: 78th
BABIP: 49th
wRC+: 24th
GB%: 168th
LD%: 161st
Off HR/FB%: 114th

Pitching
BB%: 277th
K%: 5th
FIP: 21st
LOB%: 11th
GB%: 3rd
LD%: 2nd
HR/FB%: 38th

Iowa’s offense is serviceable and disciplined. They do not beat themselves. The pitching staff allows walks at a very alarming rate, but they have the perfect recipe to counter that. They are elite in K% and GB%. This team can make a deep run in this tournament.

Arkansas Regional

Arkansas’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 224th
Off BB%: 26th
ISO: 70th
BABIP: 183rd
wRC+: 87th
GB%: 23rd
LD%: 9th
Off HR/FB%: 36th

Pitching
BB%: 135th
K%: 43rd
FIP: 118th
LOB%: 7th
GB%: 241st
LD%: 304th
HR/FB%: 293rd

Arkansas ranked 87th in wRC+ and 118th in FIP is extremely alarming for a (1) seed. Even more concerning is their pitching batted ball profile. Bottom 50th in LD% and HR/FB% means a lot of balls that are put in play are getting crushed. They will have to outperform their season metrics to make a run at a championship. I just don’t see that happening.

Arizona’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 59th
Off BB%: 236th
ISO: 12th
BABIP: 10th
wRC+: 11th
GB%: 21st
LD%: 136th
Off HR/FB%: 101st

Pitching
BB%: 13th
K%: 167th
FIP: 71st
LOB%: 174th
GB%: 16th
LD%: 113th
HR/FB%: 152nd

Arizona does not jump off the page offensively, but they match up extremely well in the regional. They are head and shoulders above everyone else, with a ranking of 11th in wRC+ and an ISO ranking of 12th. This will prove to be beneficial against an Arkansas pitching staff allowing home runs at an alarming rate. The pitching staff does two things really well, they do not allow walks, and they force ground balls. Now that will not be enough to make it all the way to Omaha, but it will be enough to compete in this wide-open regional.

The four teams I see advancing to Omaha from these Super Regionals are as follows:

Campbell +600
Virginia +210
Dallas Baptist +500
Iowa +550

These four regionals are wide open in my eyes, and these teams have clear advantages and paths to make it to Omaha. I do not advise parlaying any of these together, but if you want to place a lottery ticket, the odds would pay $8453 on a $10 bet. If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions on the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!

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