College Basketball Bets & Predictions: Auburn vs. Kentucky (Saturday)
Cue up Michael Scott because OH MY GOD IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING! We've officially reached March, folks, the best month of the year. We are one day away from conference tournaments kicking off for the mid-major squads and inching closer to a bracket. In a little over two weeks, we will be able to dissect regions, identify potential upsets and make official predictions for who will cut down the nets in San Antonio.
It's been an up-and-down season without a doubt but it's been solid lately, so let's continue riding the momentum into March Madness. As always, remember to shop around for the best odds. Lines are rarely identical across sportsbooks, especially when it comes to college basketball. The difference between -110 and -115 may seem small but it adds up throughout an entire season, especially if you're going to be a volume shooter come the tournament, as I will be. Let's get to it. Here are our best bets and predictions for Saturday’s game: Auburn vs. Kentucky.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Auburn vs. Kentucky
Last Article: 3-0 | Season (Articles): 33-27 | Season (Overall): 131-138-1
Auburn vs. Kentucky
Location: Rupp Arena | Lexington, KY
Line: Auburn -5.0 | Total: 168.5
What a year for the SEC, eh? I know it's not exactly a new point but it's worth re-emphasizing. Not only is the SEC going to be the best conference in Division I (DI) for the first time since 2003, per KenPom efficiency metrics, but it's on track to be the best conference ever. They are only rivaled by the 1997 ACC but otherwise are significantly ahead of any other best conference for any given year. Four teams rank in the top six, and every team ranks in the top 80. South Carolina has been the worst team and they beat the ACC's second-best team in Clemson. They only lost to Auburn by three, Florida by one, Texas A&M by four and took Mississippi State to overtime. But enough about them, let's get to the game.
Auburn-Kentucky is yet another gauntlet in conference play. For the best conference ever, Auburn is up there as one of the best teams ever with a 14-1 SEC record. Johni Broome has continued to excel as the John R. Wooden Award front-runner. He is one of the best rebounders in all of basketball, is an excellent defensive presence and overall force down low. Each of the Tigers’ role players has led to the most efficient offense in basketball with Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones, Tahaad Pettiford and the like, allowing a dynamic offense to flow across the court. They have the fifth-highest field goal attempt rate with how well they take care of the ball and offensive rebound prowess. They don't even have to have an efficient night to win and cover in this matchup.
Kentucky is going to counter with an elite offense of its own, speed, depth and perimeter shooting. Koby Brea is one of the best three-point shooters in the country, Lamont Butler is a defensive rock while Andrew Carr and Amari Williams anchor the frontcourt. Despite their lanky frames, however, the Wildcats’ interior defense might be their kryptonite today.
Their mid-range defense ranks 208th with their near-proximity percentage sitting at 184th. Even if the Tigers are limited from deep, I expect them to eat down low. Jaxson Robinson is also expected to miss tonight, so Kentucky's biggest strength will be limited with shooting, not to mention they're going up against a top-10 ranked perimeter defense in Auburn.
I've doubted the Tigers before and it hasn't worked out for me. Here's to learning from past mistakes. Auburn is the better team and I trust their recent dominance to continue to exert on opponents throughout the year. Don't be afraid to lay the points.
Prediction: Auburn 86, Kentucky 77
Best Bet: Auburn -4.5 (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)