College Basketball Bets & Predictions: Illinois vs. Michigan (Sunday)
Welcome back to another Sunday of college basketball picks and predictions. There are a ton of intriguing matchups on tap today, so let's get into the top plays before the action tips off.
A Big Ten showdown featuring Illinois and Michigan headlines the picks. Plus, we check out predictions for Quinnipiac vs. Merrimack in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) and then Missouri State vs. Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC).
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, March 2nd’s game Illinois vs. Michigan.
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Sunday's Best College Basketball Bets: Illinois vs. Michigan
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Illinois vs. Michigan (-2.5) | O/U 158.5 (-110/-110)
Despite losing to Michigan State last week, Michigan is still tied with its rival atop the Big Ten standings heading into Sunday. Both teams have critical matchups on Sunday afternoon. We'll focus on the Wolverines' side of things in their home showdown against Illinois.
Michigan has been playing with fire a lot lately. Each of its last nine wins has come by four or fewer points. That includes Thursday night's home victory over Rutgers when the Wolverines needed a buzzer-beating three-pointer to survive. They also beat Nebraska by just two points in the game prior.
The thin margins of victory are admittedly hard to ignore. However, it provides a buy-low opportunity on the Wolverines while the public is down on them. There's something to be said about a team that regularly finds ways to win. That was on full display vs. Rutgers as Michigan pulled off a double-digit second-half comeback. Dusty May's squad is overdue for a comfortable result and there's a prime opportunity today.
Illinois has notably and consistently underperformed in its toughest and biggest games this season. The Illini are just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs this season and 1-5 ATS in their last six games away from home. In the past month alone, Illinois has lost by double-digits to Michigan State, Wisconsin and Duke. The latter two were losses of 21 and 43 points, respectively.
Illinois' struggles to score from the perimeter could be an issue today. The Illini are shooting 30.5% from three-point range this season (327th in Division I) and 29.2% during conference play (last in the Big Ten). Meanwhile, Michigan is holding opponents to 31.3% shooting from deep (46th nationally). The Wolverines also boast the size to limit scoring inside.
One of Michigan's glaring weaknesses is turning the ball over. It ranks 234th nationally and last in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate. Yet, Illinois doesn't force many turnovers itself. It ranks 356th nationally and last in the conference in defensive turnover rate.
Illinois' lightning-quick pace (18th in Division I) isn't an advantage in this spot either. Michigan also likes to play fast and has the offensive upside to match the Illini. The Wolverines have also shown the unique ability to win both high-scoring and low-scoring games.
Interestingly, Illinois has dominated Michigan in recent years - winning eight straight meetings with a 7-1 ATS record in this stretch. That was the Juwan Howard era, though. It's Dusty May's turn to flip the script. This team is bound to win by more than one possession at some point soon. Plus, Illinois could get in a big hole if it's not making threes.
Pick: Michigan -2.5 (-120)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: