College Basketball Bets & Predictions: Kentucky vs. Missouri (Saturday)
As we inch closer and closer to tournament time, it feels wonderful to bet on such pivotal games as the regular season wraps up for power conference teams and auto-bids will be handed out this weekend. In a little over a week, we can dissect regions, identify potential upsets and make official predictions about who will cut down the nets in San Antonio.
It's been an up-and-down season, but it's been solid lately, so let's continue riding the momentum into March Madness. As always, remember to shop around for the best odds. Lines are rarely identical across sportsbooks, especially for college basketball. The difference between -110 and -115 may seem small but adds up throughout an entire season, especially if you're going to be a volume shooter come the tournament. Let's get to it. Here is our top bets and predictions for Kentucky vs. Missouri.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Kentucky vs. Missouri
Last Article: 1-1 | Season (Articles): 34-28 | Season (Overall): 135-142-1
Kentucky vs. Missouri
Location: Mizzou Arena | Columbia, MO
Line: Mizzou -5.5 | Total: 169.5
I can hear what you’re saying through the computer/phone/device. Why aren't you talking about the Auburn-Alabama game? I feel like I've covered Auburn in nearly every article, so it's time to do something different.
Since the New Year, despite going 10-7, Mizzou is the eighth-best team in basketball, per Bart Torvik with the third-best offense. When you only consider home games, they rank as the fifth-best program with the seventh-best offense and 18th-best defense. The latter number is what stands out. On the season, they are 69th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, but in Columbia, it's a different story. Their perimeter defense tightens up, allowing just 29.5% shooting from deep. They force turnovers at an even higher clip and force opponents deeper into the shot clock.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has ranked 31st in DI on the road since the New Year with a 3-5 record and the 99th-ranked defense. That is going to be a major problem when facing such a deadly Mizzou team that will get to the charity stripe even more now. Kentucky ranks 355th in the away-from-home metric per Haslametrics. The only clear advantage I see for Kentucky is on the offensive glass. They will get their second chance looks but I would be surprised if it's enough to keep up with Missouri's pacing.
With Jaxson Robinson out, the Wildcats are also destined to have their depth questioned more in this game. Missouri is due for a bounce back after two tough road losses. Even if Kentucky's perimeter defense stays in check, Mizzou ranks fifth in near-proximity offense and eighth in quick points off turnovers.
There are many avenues for success for Mizzou but only a few for Kentucky, so I'm happy to be taking the favorite in a potentially pivotal matchup.
Prediction: Missouri 90, Kentucky 80
Best Bet: Missouri -5.5 (-108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)