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College Basketball Conference Championship Game Picks (3/5)

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The first bids of the 2023 NCAA Tournament will be punched Sunday, when the Atlantic Sun, Big South and Missouri Valley Conferences wrap up their conference tournaments. While these games don’t feature any brand name programs, they serve as perfect appetizers for the feast that will be Championship Week.

Here are previews and betting picks for Sunday’s trio of title games.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Sunday:

Big South Championship Game: Campbell vs. UNC-Asheville (-4.5), Total 136

Location: Bojangles Coliseum, Charlotte, N.C. (neutral site)

Tip off time: 1 p.m. ET

We could have our first Cinderella story of March Madness, as the Campbell Fighting Camels will look to qualify for its first NCAA Tournament since 1992 as the seventh-seed in the Big South bracket. To complete the dream story, they’ll have to knock off the regular season champion Bulldogs.

UNC-Asheville is a fascinating case. The Bulldogs went 16-2 in conference play, shoot threes at a nearly 40% clip and hold opponents to just 30.3% from three. However, the Bulldogs also turn the ball over on more than 20% of their possessions and are rated as the second luckiest team in the country per KenPom.

It’s truly feast or famine for UNC-Asheville. The question is whether Campbell can force enough miscues out of the Bulldogs to pull off the upset. Campbell ranks 151st nationally in takeaway percentage and forced 22 turnovers in two regular season losses. The Bulldogs have also been much more careful with the ball during the Big South tournament, turning it over on fewer than 15% of their possessions in wins over Charleston Southern and USC Upstate.

Campbell’s two strengths are their interior offense and ability to get to the free throw line. However, UNC-Asheville plays respectable interior D (149th in defensive 2-point percentage) and foul on just 27% of their defensive possessions.

I’d prefer this line be -3, but I don’t see UNC-Asheville’s luck running out in the Big South title game. Campbell’s Cinderella story comes up just short.

The pick: Lean UNC-Asheville -4.5

Missouri Valley Championship Game: Drake vs. Bradley, Total 131 

Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri (neutral site)

Tip off time: 2 p.m. ET

Arch Madness concludes with the top two seeds settling the score after splitting their regular season matchups. No spread had come out as of Saturday night, but I’d imagine this game opens at Drake -1 on a neutral floor.

The regular season meetings were two completely different contests. The Bulldogs destroyed the Braves by 25 on their home floor, and Bradley returned the favor with a 12-point win at home in the regular season finale.

Bradley’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball, where it ranks 38th nationally. They’ve held opponents to just 31.7% from 3-point range and 45.2% inside the arc. However, Bradley’s aggressive defensive identity can get it into trouble, as it fouls on more than 30% of its defensive possessions.

The Bulldogs are similarly strong defensively, ranking 42nd nationally in defensive efficiency. However, Drake fouls on just 26.8% of their possessions, which could be significant if the refs call this game tightly. Drake is also a slightly better offensive team and shoots 36% from deep.

This should be a highly competitive conference tournament final despite both meetings between these teams being blowouts. The Bulldogs have disposed of their first two Arch Madness opponents by double digits, while Bradley struggled to beat Northern Iowa and Indiana State by a combined seven points.

This game is truly a toss up, but I’ll side with the slightly better, slightly more experienced Drake Bulldogs.

The pick: Drake at -2 or better

Atlantic Sun Championship Game: Liberty (-4.5) at Kennesaw State, Total 136.5

Location: KSU Convocation Center, Kennesaw, Georgia (Kennsaw State home game)

Tip off time: 3 p.m. ET

Chalk has prevailed during the ASUN tournament, as top-seeded Kennesaw State will host second-seeded Liberty seeking its first NCAA Tournament appearance in program history. To do so, they’ll have to take down the Flames, who have recently made the big dance in 2019 and 2021. The Owls won the lone meeting between these teams during the regular season, taking down the Flames 88-81 on their home floor.

This game features two proficient 3-point shooting teams and two subpar 3-point defenses. Kennesaw State ranks 37th in the country in 3-point shooting, but 253rd in 3-point defense. Liberty shoots threes on nearly 50% of their possessions and ranks 39th in 3-point shooting. However, the Flames are allowing opponents to make 35% of their shots from deep, ranking 239th.

There are a few key areas where Liberty holds an advantage on the road. The Flames play at an incredibly sluggish pace, are the top team in the nation in defensive rebounding and they defend without fouling. That third point is especially important against a Kennesaw State offense that ranks 52nd in the country in free throw rate. And should Liberty earn the auto bid, they could cause major issues for the higher-seeded team their matched up against in the NCAA Tournament.

The KSU Convocation Center is going to be rocking Sunday afternoon. And while I believe Liberty is the better team in this matchup, I won’t recommend laying 4.5 points with the road favorite. Instead, I’ll take the over in a game that has the makings of a high-scoring, back-and-forth thriller.

The pick: Over 136.5

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