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College Basketball: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2.0

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Welcome back to Bracketology 2.0. The past couple weeks have been exciting, with upsets galore on Wednesday. Here are some quick takeaways before I jump into the updated seeding.

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Gonzaga and Baylor vs. All

With Baylor handling Texas and Gonzaga’s continued dominance, it’s crystal clear that these two are your favorites to win it all. To allow some perspective, Baylor’s second-place KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin at 34.67 is still 6.59 ahead of Michigan sitting at third. The 2015 outstanding Kentucky team was only 3.9 ahead of Wisconsin in second. The Bears and Bulldogs are elite compared to the rest of the field this year. If it doesn’t already exist, a sportsbook is bound to offer a “Gonzaga or Baylor vs field” prop with both sides at near even money. 

Don’t be Fooled by Record

The Bulldogs of Drake sit at 17-0. That is by all means impressive, but they were essentially a missed layup away from falling to 237th ranked Illinois State. While they keep winning, their strength of schedule is weak. Come tourney time, don’t fall prey to Cinderella’s/mid-majors just because of their record. Analyze who they faced and how they won, among other factors. Circle your calendars for February 13th however, because Drake vs. Loyola Chicago should be a preview of two tournament bound teams.  

Beware of the SEC and ACC

I am all-in on Alabama, and I like Virginia, but both these conferences are down this year to say the least. Inside the Ken-Pom top-25 there are seven Big Ten teams. In the same top-25, there are only four ACC and SEC teams combined. For the teams that do make it to the tournament, their strength of schedule will inherently be down. So take them with a grain of salt compared to other years.

Now let’s get to the seeding.

Locks

  • Gonzaga (17-0)
  • Baylor (17-0)

Still the same locks as last week. If Houston beat ECU they could have been team three, but alas, they did not. Some Big Ten teams are on the cusp, but with the gauntlet that conference is, any team can drop five straight at any point, and all of a sudden become a bubble team. Now that we have entered February, I expect more teams to cement their standings moving forward. 

The Bracket

1 Seeds

  • Gonzaga (17-0)
  • Baylor (17-0)
  • Michigan (13-1)
  • Iowa (13-4)

2 Seeds

  • Villanova (11-2)
  • Virginia (12-3) 
  • Houston (15-2)
  • Alabama (15-4)

3 Seeds

  • Illinois (10-5) 
  • Wisconsin (14-5)
  • Ohio State (14-4)
  • Texas (11-4)

4 Seeds

  • Texas Tech (13-5)
  • Colorado (13-5)
  • Creighton (13-5)
  • Tennessee (12-4) 

5 Seeds

  • Kansas (12-6)
  • West Virginia (12-5)
  • USC (14-3)
  • Florida State (10-3)

6 Seeds

  • Missouri (12-3)
  • Clemson (11-5)
  • Oregon (9-3)
  • Oklahoma (11-5)

7 Seeds

  • Minnesota (11-6)
  • UCLA (13-3)
  • Drake (17-0)
  • Virginia Tech (13-4)

8 Seeds

  • Louisville (11-4) 
  • Boise State (14-2)
  • Connecticut (8-3)
  • Florida (10-5)

9 Seeds 

  • Loyola Chicago (15-3)
  • Utah State (13-5)
  • Oklahoma State (11-5)
  • Purdue (12-7)

10 Seeds 

  • Xavier (11-2)
  • Saint Louis (7-3) 
  • BYU (14-4)
  • Rutgers (10-6)

11 Seeds

  • LSU (11-6) 
  • Arkansas (14-5)
  • North Carolina (11-6)
  • San Diego State (13-4)

12 Seeds 

  • St. Bonaventure* (9-1)
  • Richmond* (10-4)
  • Maryland* (10-8)
  • Indiana* (9-8) 
  • Toledo (16-4)
  • Winthrop (16-1)

13 Seeds

  • Furman (11-5)
  • Western Kentucky (13-4)
  • South Dakota State (10-3)
  • Belmont (18-1)

14 Seeds

  • Louisiana (13-4)
  • Liberty (14-5)
  • Colgate (7-1)
  • Wright State (13-4)

15 Seeds

  • UC Santa Barbara (12-3)
  • Siena (8-2) 
  • Abilene Christian (14-3)
  • Vermont (7-3)

16 Seeds

  • Bryant (10-5) 
  • Grand Canyon (12-3)
  • Northeastern* (8-6) 
  • Southern Utah* (11-3)
  • Prairie View A&M* (7-4)
  • Norfolk State* (9-6)

*Play-in games

First Four Out

  • Syracuse (10-5)
  • Seton Hall (10-8)
  • Stanford (10-7)
  • Duke (7-6)

Next Four Out

  • Pittsburgh (9-5)
  • Michigan State (8-4)
  • SMU (10-4)
  • Memphis (11-6)

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