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College Basketball: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 3.0

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Welcome back to Bracketology 3.0. Make sure to check my other article on rankings and betting advice, along with the best futures odds available and power rankings. Here are some quick takeaways before I jump into the updated seeding.

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Trojans Atop the Pac-12

I haven’t given much love to the Conference of Champions this year, but USC has started to separate themselves from the rest of the Pac-12, with Colorado dropping their last two games. Evan Mobley has been elite for the Trojans and is one of the main reasons for their active seven-game winning streak. They finish the season against five top-50 KenPom teams, so we will see if USC is a serious contender. 

Bubble Bonanza

It is officially the time of year where teams start to cement their standings for the NCAA Tournament. This also means that it becomes more clear which teams are on the bubble. Plenty of time remains in the season, but it appears that the bubble is stronger compared to years past. As of now, teams like Stanford, Richmond, and SMU are on the outside looking in. These are teams that I was bullish on pre-season who remain legitimate tournament threats if they find their way in. What this means is that the programs that do end up making it, I will most likely favor this year in their early March Madness matchups. 

Remember to Follow Injuries

What seems like an obvious tip is actually quite difficult at times, considering how many teams there are in DI basketball. It is necessary to track team injuries when filling out your bracket simply because a team can obviously be over ranked without their best player. Not only this, but remember to consider if a team lost a game when they weren’t playing at full strength or were perhaps without their head coach due to COVID protocols. Considering how a team played when certain players were injured compared to where they stand come tournament time is a sharp angle to take and will provide a leg up against your pool.

Now let’s get to the seeding.

Locks

  • Gonzaga (21-0)
  • Baylor (17-0)
  • Michigan (15-1)
  • Ohio State (18-4)
  • Iowa (16-6)
  • Illinois (15-5)
  • Villanova (13-3)
  • Alabama (17-5)
  • Virginia (15-4)
  • Houston (17-3)

I know I’ve been a bit hesitant to claim any team as a lock, but it’s time to open the gates a bit. Any of the Big Ten teams locked in could lose-out and still make the tournament with ease. Villanova should take down at least three of their final five regular-season games while I expect Alabama to win out, with Arkansas being their toughest opponent remaining. Virginia and Houston are both coming off losses, but Virginia can end the season 15-9 while remaining in the field of 64, and the Cougars should win out to cement a top-five tournament seed. 

This week is still just seeding, but next time around, my full bracket with all the glory of projected matchups will be included. 

The Bracket

1 Seeds

  • Gonzaga (21-0)
  • Baylor (17-0)
  • Michigan (15-1)
  • Ohio State (18-4) 

2 Seeds

  • Illinois (15-5)
  • Villanova (13-3)
  • Iowa (16-6)
  • Alabama (17-5)

3 Seeds

  • Virginia (15-4) 
  • Wisconsin (15-8)
  • Houston (17-3)
  • Oklahoma (13-5)

4 Seeds

  • West Virginia (14-6)
  • Texas Tech (14-6)
  • Creighton (16-5) 
  • USC (18-3)

5 Seeds

  • Florida State (12-3) 
  • Texas (13-5) 
  • Tennessee (15-5) 
  • Colorado (16-7)

6 Seeds

  • Kansas (16-7)
  • Clemson (13-5)
  • Oregon (13-4)
  • Missouri (13-6) 

7 Seeds

  • Boise State (18-4)
  • Loyola Chicago (19-4)
  • Arkansas (17-5)
  • Virginia Tech (14-4)

8 Seeds

  • UCLA (15-5)
  • Louisville (11-4) 
  • Florida (10-6)
  • Minnesota (13-9) 

9 Seeds 

  • Connecticut (10-5)
  • Purdue (14-8)
  • Drake (21-2)
  • Oklahoma State (14-6)

10 Seeds 

  • Utah State (14-7) 
  • BYU (16-5)
  • San Diego State (16-4)
  • LSU (13-6) 

11 Seeds

  • VCU (16-4)
  • Rutgers (12-8)
  • Seton Hall (13-8)
  • Xavier (11-4)

12 Seeds 

  • Saint Louis* (11-4)
  • North Carolina* (13-7)
  • Maryland* (13-10)
  • Indiana* (12-9) 
  • Wright State (17-5) 
  • Belmont (23-1) 

13 Seeds

  • Winthrop (20-1)
  • Toledo (18-6)
  • Furman (14-7)
  • Western Kentucky (15-4)

14 Seeds

  • Liberty (17-5) 
  • Colgate (9-1) 
  • South Dakota State (13-5)
  • UC Santa Barbara (14-3)

15 Seeds

  • Texas State (15-6)
  • Siena (8-2) 
  • Abilene Christian (18-3)
  • Vermont (10-4)

16 Seeds

  • Bryant (10-5) 
  • Grand Canyon (13-3)
  • James Madison* (13-5) 
  • Southern Utah* (14-3)
  • Prairie View A&M* (7-4)
  • Norfolk State* (12-7)

*Play-in games

First Four Out

  • Stanford (14-8)
  • Richmond (11-5)
  • SMU (11-4)
  • Syracuse (12-6)

Next Four Out

  • St. Bonaventure (10-3)
  • Memphis (12-6)
  • Wichita State (13-4)
  • Colorado State (14-4)

Biggest Risers: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, VCU, Seton Hall

Biggest Fallers: Minnesota, Drake, Xavier

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