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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Big East Tournament (2024)

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Can anyone take down the Connecticut Huskies? That’s the prevailing question as the Big East Tournament gets underway at Madison Square Garden this week.

Now, that’s not to say the conference features just two tiers: UConn and everyone else. There is some depth to this league, which could get six or seven teams into the dance, depending on how things transpire at MSG. But with plenty of depth comes plenty of questions, as several teams are still fighting to solidify their standing in the field of 68.

Is this year’s Big East Tournament a formality and crowning of UConn as they prepare to defend their national title? Or can anyone else make a run?

Here’s a full breakdown of the 2024 Big East Tournament:

2024 Big East Tournament Preview & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

2024 Big East Tournament Odds

Teams To Toss Out 

The Big East Tournament has been capable of producing some unlikely runs. Just three tournaments ago, Georgetown staged an incredible run, winning the tournament as the eight seed.

However, this year’s Big East has a true division between the haves and the have-nots, so I don’t anticipate much magic occurring at MSG this go around.

We can immediately dismiss the aforementioned Hoyas, who are still figuring things out in Ed Cooley’s first season, and league bottom-feeder DePaul, who went winless in conference play. If either of these teams wins a game at MSG, it would be a minor miracle.

While scrappy teams like Butler and Xavier feature some upside when they’re at their best, they also have to get through each other in the first round, then UConn in the second round. The Bulldogs did pester the Huskies in their two matchups this season, so they could be worth a bet to cover the spread against UConn, should they advance and if the line opens in the double digits. Still, neither the Bulldogs nor the Musketeers have the horses to keep up with the Huskies.

I will also toss out Providence. The Friars are a scrappy bunch that will be a tough out at MSG as they fight for their NCAA Tournament lives. Still, they’ve also fallen apart down the stretch, losing three of four while falling into the “Next Four Out” category in Joe Lunardi’s most recent bracket forecast. A potential quarterfinal date with Creighton would serve as a golden opportunity to bolster their resumé. However, the Friars rank 131st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 89th in defensive efficiency over their last 10 games, indicating that their current form probably isn’t enough to dethrone the Bluejays.

The Contenders

With nearly half of the field cut out of the conversation, let’s break down the remaining teams in contention.

Villanova Wildcats (+1600)

So, Villanova is a really bizarre case. The Wildcats will play for their tournament lives after squandering opportunities to solidify their spot in the dance against Seton Hall and Creighton to close out the regular season.

The Wildcats are currently the first team out in Lunardi’s bracket. They’re extremely experienced yet extremely inconsistent. They struggle mightily to shoot the ball sometimes and aren’t tremendous defensively. Yet, the analytical profile tells the story of a team that deserves to be in the dance. The Wildcats are a top-30 team in both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s systems despite a 17-14 record.

Analytics aside, my eyes tell me Villanova probably doesn’t deserve a spot in the field. So why didn’t I exclude them from the conversation?

The Big East bracket could potentially set up very favorably for them. First is a matchup with DePaul, whom the Wildcats beat by 25+ in both meetings this year. The Blue Demons should offer little resistance. Assuming they handle business, Villanova will get a potentially vulnerable Marquette team in the quarterfinals. It will then most likely get a rematch with a Creighton team they just lost to at the buzzer last weekend.

While the Wildcats would have to win three games in three days, a run to the finals certainly isn’t out of the question. However, at 16/1 odds, you’re probably better off just taking Villanova with a moneyline rollover, as they’ll probably be significant underdogs in the quarterfinals and semifinals.

The odds don’t warrant a futures bet, but Villanova will be a team I’m looking to target, especially considering one signature win could be enough to get them into the NCAA field.

Seton Hall Pirates (+3500)

The Pirates should be safely in the field and will be a tough out against any higher seed in the big dance. Seton Hall is led by four seniors, has a talented guard duo and owns a win over UConn this season. Granted, that win came before Christmas, but it counts. Plus, experience beating UConn is a pre-requisite if you’re to be considered a contender in this tournament.

The Pirates have arguably the toughest road to the finals, as they’d have to get through St. John’s on their home floor and the Huskies. However, the disparity between Seton Hall and St. John’s on the odds board is fascinating, considering the teams must take the same road to the tournament crown. Plus, Seton Hall swept the season series against the Johnnies.

The Pirates’ odds warrant consideration, given their experience and ability to keep possessions alive on the offensive glass. However, Seton Hall is extremely vulnerable against the 3-pointer, ranking 328th in 3-point rate on defense while allowing opponents to shoot nearly 34% from deep. That might not hurt them against the Red Storm, who don’t shoot or make many shots from deep. Still, against contenders like UConn, Creighton or Marquette, it’ll likely be their fatal flaw.

St. John’s Red Storm (+800)

If you’re looking for a good narrative, then St. John’s is the team for you during the Big East Tournament. The Johnnies are always an intriguing team to watch this time of year since the tournament is held on their home floor. However, the Red Storm could be an especially popular pick this year when you consider these narratives:

  • Rick Pitino is an excellent coach in tournament settings and is capable of producing some magic in his return to the Big East tournament.
  • St. John’s is currently the last team in the field, according to Lunardi, which means they need at least one win to secure their fate.
  • The Red Storm has won five in a row, including a victory over Creighton during that run.

I should probably also mention the other four teams St. John’s beat during this recent stretch: Georgetown (twice), DePaul and a free-falling Butler team. Hence why the bracket experts aren’t vaulting St. John’s into the field just because they’re on a winning streak.

The Johnnies are playing better, though, ranking as the 24th-best team over their last 10 games, per Bart Torvik. I suppose anything is truly possible with Pitino. Still, it’s hard to take a team at such short odds when they have a legitimate chance of losing their first game to a team they don’t match up well against. And, of course, we know who’s waiting for them in the next round.

If you believe in the Johnnies, I’d recommend another moneyline rollover, as they’ll likely be a short favorite against Seton Hall, then dogs against anyone they play next (assuming the top seeds prevail). That’ll likely pay out better than 8/1 odds would on a future.

Marquette Golden Eagles (+500)

I’ve written over 1,000 words and have barely mentioned Marquette, which could be the biggest wild card in this tournament.

The Golden Eagles swept the conference’s regular season and tournament titles last season. They’re a legitimate national title contender when they’re at their best, but Marquette has been short-handed as of late. Their top player, Tyler Kolek, has been sidelined by an oblique injury suffered at the end of February.

The timing for Kolek’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time, as the Golden Eagles dropped games against Creighton and UConn without their point guard. Marquette did right the ship in the regular season finale, beating Xavier on the road without Kolek.

Kolek’s status is currently unknown, as the team plans to re-evaluate his injury heading into the Big East Tournament. If he returns, the Golden Eagles have the upside to repeat as tournament champs. If Kolek’s out, this team is just as capable of losing its first game, assuming Villanova beats DePaul.

However, let’s at least discuss the team’s path with Kolek back healthy. Marquette’s draw to the championship game sets up rather well for them, as none of the teams standing in their way to the finals can exploit their biggest weakness: defensive rebounding. Creighton, Villanova and Providence all rank outside the top 250 in offensive rebounding rate. In fact, some of Marquette’s best games on the defensive glass came against these three teams.

Of course, UConn destroyed the Golden Eagles on the glass in both meetings. But at 5/1 odds, there would be opportunities to hedge against the Huskies in the tournament final. Plus, Marquette knocked off UConn en route to last year’s Big East Tournament crown.

Though I’m discussing Marquette with the best-case scenario in mind, Kolek’s uncertainty makes this team awfully difficult to place a futures bet on.

Creighton Bluejays (+425)

The Bluejays are an electric team poised to go farther than last year’s Elite Eight appearance. They attempt and make a ton of threes, have a 7-footer manning the middle in Ryan Kalkbrenner and stifle the perimeter on the other end of the floor. To beat the Jays, you must either hope for an off night from deep or find a way to keep up.

Creighton’s road to the final could also set up extremely well. While Providence did split the season series with Creighton, the Friars don’t have the horses to keep up on a neutral floor. Though Marquette hung around for a while in Omaha without Kolek just a couple of weeks ago, the Bluejays pulled away late to win by 14. If Kolek’s out for the Big East Tournament, the Jays have a pretty smooth path to the title game.

Creighton also handed UConn one of its few conference losses this year. The difference between their 14-point loss and their 19-point win against the Huskies came down to, you guessed it, 3-pointers. The Bluejays shot 6-for-27 from deep in their loss at UConn while going 14-for-29 in their home victory.

The calculus changes if Creighton has to go through both a healthy Marquette and UConn to cut down the nets. But at these odds, Creighton’s upside makes it worth a bet. 

UConn Huskies (-135)

Finally, there’s the Huskies, a team that doesn’t require much introduction. The defending national champs are as good, if not better, than last year’s bunch. The Huskies are an elite shooting team and excel at pulling down rebounds when they happen to miss. The Huskies suppress the 3-point line and have 7-footer Donovan Clingan protecting the middle, making them the 11th-most efficient defense in the nation.

If UConn has a flaw, it tends to play a bit too physically on the defensive end. The Huskies rank 205th in defensive free throw rate. Fortunately for them, none of the four teams in their path to the title game rank inside the top 150 in free throw rate.

UConn is the class of the conference and the deserved favorite to cut down the nets at Madison Square Garden. While their odds aren’t horrible, I’m typically looking to invest in plus-money odds in these conference tourneys, where one bad night can sink even the mightiest of favorites.

Tournament Predictions & Best Bets 

In our endless pursuit of finding value, I’m making Creighton my best bet to win the Big East Tournament. 

The Bluejays have the lethal offense and highly capable defense to take down any team in this field. I like their path to the final, especially if Kolek is out for Marquette. And I’ll take my chances should they meet the Huskies in the tournament final, a game in which they probably won’t be +425 on the moneyline.

Of course, Kolek returning could throw a monkey wrench into this entire tournament, so I don’t mind a shot on Marquette at 5/1, should he come back.

This doesn’t feel like a year for a longshot to emerge, as each of them is severely flawed and/or has tricky paths. But if there’s one team I’d consider a flyer on, it’s Villanova. The Wildcats are desperate, experienced and could benefit from the same path as Creighton. And we just saw Nova take Creighton to the buzzer despite falling into a 32-8 hole in the first half. Is it unlikely? Sure, but it wouldn’t stun me if Villanova got hot at the right time and shots suddenly started falling when it mattered most. Worst-case, we can always hedge a profit against UConn in the final.

Bets: Creighton (+425) & Villanova (+1600)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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