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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (11/16)

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We are back for another week of college ball, bringing much-needed energy and excitement to homes as we settle into the colder months. If you think college basketball is a sport reserved only for March, think again. You’ve missed some thrilling games already.

I'll be here weekly to guide you through the day's key matchups, providing previews and my top bets. As always, shop around for the best odds, as college basketball lines can vary across different platforms, especially with mid-major matchups. There’s tremendous value every single day, and the weekend schedule is no different. While Friday hosted most of the marquee games this week, there are still some exciting matchups to watch today. Let's dive in.

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Saturday’s Best College Basketball Bets

Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 1-2

South Carolina at Indiana Preview

As Indiana hosts South Carolina, the matchup will highlight two teams built around strong frontcourt play. Mike Woodson's Hoosiers, loaded with talent, will take on a South Carolina squad that shocked many by making the NCAA Tournament last season under head coach Lamont Paris.

The most intriguing aspect of this game will be the battle in the paint. Indiana boasts a dominant frontcourt duo of Malik Reneau and Arizona transfer Oumar Ballo, while the Gamecocks counter with potential first-round pick Collin Murray-Boyles, whose sensational freshman year turned heads nationwide. Murray-Boyles, who shot 61% from inside the arc last season and posted outstanding defensive numbers, will face a stiff test in Indiana’s veteran big men.

Indiana has struggled with outside shooting, hitting only 35% from deep. Just 21% of their points have come from beyond the arc, ranking 326th nationally. They've been more effective inside, where they score 66% of their points, ranking fifth in the country in that category. Both teams Indiana has faced so far are ranked outside the top 300, so going up against a potential top-50 defense may expose some weaknesses in the Hoosiers’ offense.

South Carolina, meanwhile, has also struggled from long range, shooting below 30% from deep and relying heavily on getting to the basket and the free-throw line, which could be challenging against Indiana's disciplined defense.

For Indiana to win at Assembly Hall, they will need to utilize their frontcourt depth and physicality while pushing the pace to prevent South Carolina from setting up its structured defense. Luke Goode's shooting could prove crucial for spacing the floor, though he's struggled early this season, making just 2-of-7 from three-point range. Mackenzie Mgbako, a former five-star recruit, could be a key factor in this game, as he shot 38% from beyond the arc last season and can match up defensively with the 6-8 Murray-Boyles. Attacking Murray-Boyles early and testing his defensive discipline could also force him into foul trouble.

South Carolina's path to victory lies in controlling the tempo and keeping the game in a half-court setting, where their defense can thrive. Murray-Boyles must navigate Indiana’s double-teams and make efficient decisions, while the guard trio of Jamarii Thomas, Jacobi Wright and Myles Stute will need to knock down outside shots to prevent Indiana from packing the paint. Forcing turnovers and turning them into fast-break points will be key for the Gamecocks.

Both teams are in must-win situations, with South Carolina already suffering an upset against North Florida. A loss here would raise doubts about Mike Woodson's coaching future at Indiana. Expect Murray-Boyles to put up solid numbers, but Indiana's overwhelming interior strength should be too much for South Carolina to handle. This game will be physical, but I see the Hoosiers emerging victorious.

Prediction: Indiana – 71, South Carolina – 65
Best Bet: Under 144.5 Points (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Wake Forest at Xavier Preview

The two teams that received the most “dark horse” hype this preseason are set to face off, with the Xavier Musketeers hosting the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Both teams are aiming to build on solid 2023-24 campaigns and secure NCAA Tournament bids, making this a potential early-season showdown that could have long-term implications for both squads.

After a season plagued by injuries, Xavier is primed for a major bounce-back year. Key players like Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter, who missed all of last season, are back in action. The Musketeers also brought in a strong group of transfers, including high-scoring wing Ryan Conwell and versatile guard Dante Maddox Jr.

However, the transition hasn't been entirely smooth, as Xavier struggled to defeat IU Indianapolis, possibly the weakest NCAA Division 1 (D1) team this season. More recently, Freemantle showcased his skills against Jackson State, knocking down 4-of-5 from beyond the arc and posting 21 points. On defense, Xavier has allowed opponents to hit over 40% of their three-pointers. Fortunately for them, Wake Forest has been horrendous from long range, shooting below 26% on the season from beyond the arc after 108 attempts.

Wake Forest entered the season with high hopes, but it hasn't been entirely smooth sailing, despite a 4-0 record. The Demon Deacons, led by star guard Hunter Sallis, barely edged out Michigan and USC Upstate. While the win over Michigan is impressive, USC Upstate is ranked 329th on KenPom. Wake Forest’s defense has been lackluster, allowing 1.18 points per possession against one of the weakest offenses in the country. Expect Wake Forest to rely heavily on their offense, pushing the pace and looking to score from all over the floor.

Sallis is the driving force for the Deacons, capable of taking over games with his scoring and playmaking. He is complemented by big man Efton Reid, who developed into a dominant force in the paint as last season progressed. Xavier’s physicality in the frontcourt could cause problems for Wake Forest, but the Deacons still have enough offensive firepower, along with potential improvement from deep.

This game will likely come down to whether Wake can find some rhythm from beyond the arc, an area where they struggled against USC Upstate (7-of-26 from deep) and committed 11 turnovers. Xavier's defense is designed to allow three-point attempts, so this could either be a blowout or a much tighter game depending on Wake Forest's shooting. The Musketeers have the 11th-best interior defense this season, so if Wake Forest continues to miss outside shots and struggle inside, this could be a double-digit victory for Xavier.

With Xavier's superior shooting, ball movement, experience and home-court advantage, I expect them to handle Wake Forest comfortably at the Cintas Center.

Prediction: Xavier – 80, Wake Forest – 73
Best Bet: Xavier -4.5 (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Liberty vs. Florida Atlantic Preview

The Liberty Flames and Florida Atlantic Owls will meet in the Field of 68 Tip-Off. Liberty’s focus this season has been on rebuilding their defensive identity after struggles in that area last year. Head coach Ritchie McKay returns a talented backcourt duo in Colin Porter and Kaden Metheny, who will be key in stabilizing Liberty’s offense. JUCO transfer Owen Aquino has been efficient so far, shooting 70% from inside the arc and helping lead Liberty to a 3-0 record.

On the other side, Florida Atlantic's new head coach John Jakus has assembled an impressive roster of perimeter players. The Owls are looking to push the tempo and overwhelm their opponents with the scoring ability of transfers KyKy Tandy, Leland Walker and Ken Evans. Baba Miller, who arrived from Florida State, adds an intriguing frontcourt weapon for FAU, but the Owls will need strong defensive cohesion against Liberty's methodical offense.

This matchup pits Liberty's trademark pack-line defense against FAU’s high-speed, guard-heavy offense. If the Flames can control the tempo, slow the game down and force the Owls into a half-court game, they may be able to grind out a win. However, if FAU’s backcourt gets into a rhythm and creates fast-break opportunities, their firepower may prove too much for Liberty to handle.

Liberty holds a distinct advantage in terms of rest, as FAU comes into this game after a grueling double-overtime contest against Charleston. The back-to-back could take its toll on the Owls, potentially forcing them to play at a slower pace, which would favor Liberty’s style.

This should be an exciting clash of styles, with Liberty’s defensive discipline matching up against FAU's offensive explosiveness. If FAU struggles early due to the quick turnaround, Liberty could capitalize and pull off a close win. With the Owls' offense likely to adjust after halftime, this could be a thrilling game that comes down to the wire.

Prediction: Liberty – 72, FAU – 70
Best Bet: First Half Under 69.5 Points (-110 on ESPN Bet)

Additional Bets to Consider

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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