Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (12/7)
Feast Week may be behind us but conference play has begun and there are a plethora of tasty matchups to continue eating up this weekend. I hope you've been following along of late because this past week of college basketball has been thrilling with some potential Final Four preview matchups with the number of ranked teams going toe to toe.
This weekend might not feature as many but there is still plenty to be excited for. Let's jump right in.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets
Last Article: 2-1 | Season (Articles): 7-5 | Season (Overall): 27-23
Wisconsin at Marquette
Location: Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI
Line: Marquette -7.5 | Total: 149
With both teams coming off a loss, this game feels imperative as a bounce-back for both squads, each out to an 8-1 start on the young season. For Wisconsin, this stands out as their first road game. They've surprised already, jumping up to No. 11 in the AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll with wins over Arizona and Pittsburgh but came back down to earth against Michigan.
John Tonje has slotted in well after transferring from Missouri, scoring 33 in the win over Pitt and 41 over Arizona. He draws fouls at the fifth-highest clip in the nation, so Marquette will have to be disciplined to keep him from the charity stripe.
But the Golden Eagles have been surprisingly elite defensively early on, ranking sixth in KenPom defensive efficiency and forcing turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents’ possessions. It will be a fascinating battle of ball control as Wisconsin is a top-10 team at limiting turnovers offensively and they don't grab offensive boards at a high clip.
If Wisconsin can limit turnovers, it not only helps their offense but also limits Marquette in the transition game as the No. 1 ranked team in quick points off steals, per Haslametrics. But if the Golden Eagles are pickpocketing left and right, Wisconsin's field goal rate will be in the cellar. I guess it will be somewhere in the middle.
This is a tough one to handicap as I see a wide range of outcomes. Both teams will shoot a high number of threes, so I would advise alts here, but Wisconsin has shown their ability to keep up with the pace and limit opponents in transition with only 17% of opponents’ shots coming on the run. This spread is just too much considering how these teams line up.
Prediction: Marquette 74, Wisconsin 70
Best Bet: Wisconsin +7.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kentucky vs. Gonzaga
Location: Climate Pledge Arena – Seattle, WA
Line: Gonzaga -4.5 | Total: 165
What a treat we have in this early season showdown as football starts to wane and basketball begins to wax in terms of moon metaphors. It's good to see good basketball games scheduled for Saturdays again as Kentucky takes on Gonzaga in Seattle as a semi-home game for the Bulldogs.
Before jumping in, can I just say how appreciative I am of Mark Few scheduling difficult matchups so early? Baylor, Kentucky, UConn and UCLA make for a gauntlet of non-conference opponents, not to mention the Battle 4 Atlantis games.
Analytically speaking, Gonzaga is a top-five team in the country, ranked as such on KenPom, EvanMiya, Haslametrics and Bart Torvik. Their only loss so far was in overtime to West Virginia after falling apart late. Otherwise, they have been unstoppable, winning every game by no fewer than eight points.
Against West Virginia, Few's squad only shot 33% (7-of-21) from deep, which isn't bad, but important considering they are 69-3 over the last three seasons when shooting above 36% from three. It also didn't help they turned the ball over on 17% of their possessions considering all other games they've been elite at ball control.
Going up against Kentucky, only one of those two things should be a problem. The Wildcats’ defense ranks 287th in forcing turnovers but they have been elite defensively, limiting opponents to shooting shy of 26% from beyond the arc on the year. The Bulldogs have only faced one top-75 three-point defense - West Virginia. You'd think Gonzaga would go inside considering their top-10 near-proximity shooting but Haslametrics projects just 28.5% of their shots to come inside the paint, 6% below the Division 1 (DI) average.
Kentucky has been shooting lights out but their offense is only so sustainable and they're coming off a 25.9% three-point shooting night against Clemson. All their other games have come at home or on neutral court this year. The Wildcats are also due for regression defensively and don't have a high free throw rate either.
The summary here is that offensively both teams appear due for some regression while both teams represent a top-10 perimeter defense. Neither squad will get many second-chance looks with both teams ranking in the top 25 at defensive rebound rate and each team should stay out of foul trouble, limiting any free points at the charity stripe.
Both teams are run and gun offensively which may make it tempting to take the over. But I'm going the other way here and trusting neither team will be crazy efficient tonight.
Prediction: Gonzaga 82, Kentucky 77
Best Bet: Under 164.5 Points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Iowa vs. Michigan
Location: Crisler Center – Ann Arbor, MI
Line: Michigan -8.5 | Total: 155.5
For some more Big Ten basketball we have what should be an awesome matchup in Iowa-Michigan. Both teams are coming off some serious resume-boosting wins with both starting the season hot, with matching 7-1 records.
Michigan - my preseason darling - has impressed early on, led by their frontcourt transfers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. The duo accounted for 44 of Michigan's 67 points in their victory over Wisconsin. Iowa will have their work cut out for them down low but they line up relatively well with a top-75 near-proximity defense.
If the Wolverines want to attack this Iowa defense it would be in the mid-range where Iowa's defense ranks outside the top 300. But Michigan ranks 10th in rim-and-three rate and is only projected for 19% of their attempts to come from that distance, per Haslametrics.
For Michigan defensively, it will be limiting Iowa's pace as the Hawkeyes have crushed the three teams who have allowed a higher pace of play while their one loss came against Utah State, one of the slowest-paced teams in the country.
Overall, Michigan ranks 85th in pace. Defensively, though, they force opponents deep into the shot clock with a high percentage of turnovers along the way.
For Iowa to keep this game close they need to be lights out from deep, which is tough to trust on the road in the Big Ten against a top-50 perimeter defense. Going inside isn't an easy solution either with Michigan's big men and sizing, holding opponents to 41% inside the arc - the seventh-best mark in the country.
Michigan might favor the analytically unsound mid-range look based on how these teams match up on paper to find consistent scoring and all those ingredients add up to an easy-bake under.
Prediction: Michigan 77, Iowa 70
Best Bet: Under 155.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Saint Mary's vs. Utah
Location: Huntsman Center – Salt Lake City, UT
Line: Utah -1.0 | Total: 139.5
Ain't no love for the West Coast except in this here article. Utah takes on Saint Mary's in a battle bound to be an important tick on the resume either way come tournament selection. Both squads only have one loss, while Utah is a clean 6-1 against the spread (ATS) compared to 2-6 for the Gaels.
Saint Mary's enters the game with a much more impressive resume with wins over USC and Nebraska. Utah has played remarkably efficient ball, though, on both ends of the court, battling on the road against a tough Mississippi State team.
The only clear advantage here for either team is Saint Mary's on the glass. Randy Bennett's squad has the single-best offensive rebounding rate in the country, hauling in nearly 44% of their misses. They might need to get even more as their perimeter shooting ranks outside the top 200 in DI and Utah's two-point defense ranks second-best in the nation, holding opponents to 39% shooting. Of course, they've had an easy schedule but they still held Mississippi State to 43% inside the arc, seven points lower than the league average.
Offensively, Utah should get their way from deep as a top-25 perimeter shooting team with the help of leading scorer Gabe Madsen, who can score anywhere on the court. Their shooting combined with their ability to draw fouls - frontcourt piece Ezra Ausar draws them at the highest clip among any DI player - will make this a tough team to stop for the Gaels.
That skill alone of drawing fouls might end up being the crux of this matchup as Saint Mary's ranks 359th in bench minutes nationally. Both teams struggle shooting free throws, so there's a decent chance this game ends wildly. The lack of depth for Saint Mary's and concerning recent play makes this an easy bet.
Prediction: Utah 75, Saint Mary's 70
Best Bet: Utah -1.5 (-102 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Quick Hitters
Clemson vs. Miami
Until proven otherwise, I have zero trust in Miami. Almost every analytical website has this line closer to six or more. It will be a slower-paced game but Miami's defense is truly dreadful, so Clemson should slice and dice tonight.
Bet: Clemson -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Nebraska vs. Michigan State
Usually, I'm hesitant to back a road Big Ten team but Michigan State has been unbelievably bad from deep, shooting sub-26% from beyond the arc. It will be tough to find points tonight as Nebraska allows 37% of opponent points to come from inside the arc, which ranks sixth-lowest in the nation.
The Cornhuskers will let the Spartans take anything from deep with their pac-line defense, and that's not great for Michigan State. My official bet is on the under but feel free to sprinkle a little on the Nebraska Moneyline.
Bet: Under 147.5 (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington State vs. Boise State
This number opened at Boise State -9, which is insane, but now it's settled at a comfortable 6.5-point spread. This is a simple bet here in following home-court advantage.
It's early, but the Broncos rank 10th in the homecourt Haslametrics metric, while Washington State sits at 261st. Boise State will capitalize on interior scoring, getting to the charity stripe and second-chance looks. I trust home-field/homecourt advantage in college basketball more than any other sport.
Bet: Boise State -6.5 (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook)