College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (3/1)
Cue up Michael Scott because OH MY GOD IT'S FINALLY HAPPENING! We've officially reached March, folks, the best month of the year. We are one day away from conference tournaments kicking off for the mid-major squads and inching closer to a bracket. In a little over two weeks, we will be able to dissect regions, identify potential upsets and make official predictions for who will cut down the nets in San Antonio.
It's been an up-and-down season without a doubt but it's been solid lately, so let's continue riding the momentum into March Madness. As always, remember to shop around for the best odds. Lines are rarely identical across sportsbooks, especially when it comes to college basketball. The difference between -110 and -115 may seem small but it adds up throughout an entire season, especially if you're going to be a volume shooter come the tournament, as I will be. Let's get to it.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets
Last Article: 3-0 | Season (Articles): 33-27 | Season (Overall): 131-138-1
Auburn vs. Kentucky
Location: Rupp Arena | Lexington, KY
Line: Auburn -5.0 | Total: 168.5
What a year for the SEC, eh? I know it's not exactly a new point but it's worth re-emphasizing. Not only is the SEC going to be the best conference in Division I (DI) for the first time since 2003, per KenPom efficiency metrics, but it's on track to be the best conference ever. They are only rivaled by the 1997 ACC but otherwise are significantly ahead of any other best conference for any given year. Four teams rank in the top six, and every team ranks in the top 80. South Carolina has been the worst team and they beat the ACC's second-best team in Clemson. They only lost to Auburn by three, Florida by one, Texas A&M by four and took Mississippi State to overtime. But enough about them, let's get to the game.
Auburn-Kentucky is yet another gauntlet in conference play. For the best conference ever, Auburn is up there as one of the best teams ever with a 14-1 SEC record. Johni Broome has continued to excel as the John R. Wooden Award front-runner. He is one of the best rebounders in all of basketball, is an excellent defensive presence and overall force down low. Each of the Tigers’ role players has led to the most efficient offense in basketball with Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones, Tahaad Pettiford and the like, allowing a dynamic offense to flow across the court. They have the fifth-highest field goal attempt rate with how well they take care of the ball and offensive rebound prowess. They don't even have to have an efficient night to win and cover in this matchup.
Kentucky is going to counter with an elite offense of its own, speed, depth and perimeter shooting. Koby Brea is one of the best three-point shooters in the country, Lamont Butler is a defensive rock while Andrew Carr and Amari Williams anchor the frontcourt. Despite their lanky frames, however, the Wildcats’ interior defense might be their kryptonite today.
Their mid-range defense ranks 208th with their near-proximity percentage sitting at 184th. Even if the Tigers are limited from deep, I expect them to eat down low. Jaxson Robinson is also expected to miss tonight, so Kentucky's biggest strength will be limited with shooting, not to mention they're going up against a top-10 ranked perimeter defense in Auburn.
I've doubted the Tigers before and it hasn't worked out for me. Here's to learning from past mistakes. Auburn is the better team and I trust their recent dominance to continue to exert on opponents throughout the year. Don't be afraid to lay the points.
Prediction: Auburn 86, Kentucky 77
Best Bet: Auburn -4.5 (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona vs. Iowa State
Location: Hilton Coliseum | Ames, IA
Line: Iowa State -6.5 | Total: 151.5
I don't buy into revenge game narratives all that much, but after a buzzer-beater forced overtime where Arizona beat Iowa State in January, I imagine the Cyclones have had their eyes on this game for a bit. Maybe that's why they haven't been playing as well recently. I get they haven't been 100% healthy and fought against Houston, but the loss to a sub-100-ranked Oklahoma State is embarrassing. They allowed the Pokes to get over 1.00 points per possession and only shot 60% from the charity stripe.
This is where I'm most concerned for Iowa State. Their defense has taken a step back in the last month, ranking outside the top 25 since February 1st. Their offense has been even worse at 86th. Again, they should have Keshon Gilbert back tonight but these are two teams going in opposite directions. In the same time frame, Iowa State ranks 10th in DI with a surprisingly elite defense.
They've lost three out of the last five, but, honestly, it was three games that could've gone either way. Against Kansas State, they played hurt and went 2-for-22 from beyond the arc. Versus Houston, they played them toe-to-toe while still only shooting 21% from deep. Against BYU, the Cougars shot nearly 50% from the three-point line and got a no-call to go their way.
It's easy to pick and choose stats and lines when writing for or against any team but simply speaking, I expect Arizona to keep it close and I'm judging the more recent numbers than seasonal ones. Iowa State's offense, even while healthy, will still struggle against a top-25 near-proximity Arizona defense that allows a very low second-chance conversion percentage. On the other side, the Wildcats rank 15th in interior offense whereas Iowa State finds its biggest weakness - ranking 165th in near-proximity defense.
Arizona will win on the glass and in transition. They have the size advantage and should capitalize on Iowa State's weaknesses. Don't be afraid to sprinkle a bit on Arizona's Moneyline here but I'm taking the spread.
Prediction: Arizona 75, Iowa State 74
Best Bet: Arizona +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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