Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2/9)
Super Bowl LIX is the big headliner, but it isn’t the only sporting event on Sunday. We have a small slate of college basketball games on the Sunday schedule as well before the Chiefs and Eagles take center stage. Let’s dive into the college hoops slate and lock in some picks. We’ll focus on Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State, Xavier vs. Villanova and Rutgers vs. Maryland.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, February 9th.
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Sunday's Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona State at Oklahoma State (-1.5) | O/U 144.5 (-110/-110)
Life in the Big 12 has been rough for Arizona State. The conference newcomer is 3-8 in league play with seven losses over the past nine games. Despite the tough stretch for Bobby Hurley's squad, the Sun Devils have a get-right opportunity today against Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys are also 3-8 in the Big 12 with losses in six of their last eight games. They currently sit outside of the top 100 in the NET Rankings and on KenPom as a bottom-tier power conference team. Plus, nine of Oklahoma State's 11 losses overall this season have come by 10+ points.
Though Arizona State has struggled against top teams in the conference, it's taken care of business when facing weaker teams this year. Against sub-100 KenPom teams, Arizona State is 7-0 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) with four straight covers. It's won those seven matchups by an average of 14.4 points, including four by double digits.
Arizona State's defense can control this game and lead it to a road win. The Sun Devils rank in the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while holding opponents to 30.5% three-point shooting (39th in Division I). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's offense ranks 14th out of 16 Big 12 teams during conference play.
Oklahoma State's issues on offense stem from its lack of a trusted backcourt and inconsistent perimeter scoring. The Cowboys are shooting just 33.1% from three this season (200th in Division I) with a 19.2% offensive turnover rate (295th).
Admittedly, Arizona State's offense isn't much better. However, it should have enough success because of the favorable matchup. Oklahoma State ranks 14th and 16th in the conference in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed, respectively. The Cowboys are also allowing opponents to shoot 35.6% from three this year (278th). Arizona State has a 35.6% three-point percentage (84th) and its better backcourt will make the difference.
Finally, we have some interesting ATS trends to note here. Arizona State is 9-3 ATS in road/neutral court games, including three straight road covers. Conversely, Oklahoma State is just 3-7 ATS at home this year. Back the Sun Devils to get it done after losing close to Arizona and Kansas State in the past two games.
Pick: Arizona State +1.5 (-122)
Rutgers at Maryland (-9.5) | O/U 151.5 (-105/-115)
On Thursday, Maryland blew a double-digit lead on the road to fall short at Ohio State. It was a tough result for a team that led by 17 points in the first half at one point and even held a 10-point lead with seven minutes to go. Bank on the Terrapins to bounce back as they return home for this Sunday afternoon matchup vs. Rutgers.
Maryland has lost only once at home this season - against Marquette back in November. Whether the Terps can cover the big spread here is another question. They're 3-2 ATS at home in conference play but two of those were blowout wins vs. UCLA and Ohio State.
Before losing to Ohio State, Kevin Willard's squad had been rolling. The Terps were 6-1 SU in their previous seven games and are now up to 18th at KenPom and 16th in NET Rankings. Per BatTorvik's ratings, Maryland is playing like the 17th-best team in the country over the past month.
The Terrapins have also responded well after losses this season. They're 4-1 ATS after a loss so far and have another opportunity to get back on track here.
It's a good spot with Rutgers coming off a home upset over Illinois. There's real letdown potential for the Scarlet Knights despite the short road trip down I-95 today. They've had a mixed bag of results on the road this season, going 2-4 ATS with a pair of double-digit losses at Ohio State and Indiana.
The Scarlet Knights just got Dylan Harper back from injury last game, but the offense is still too reliant on him and Ace Bailey. Their supporting cast remains inconsistent and untrustworthy outside of the two stud freshmen. During conference play, Rutgers has struggled offensively. It ranks 13th and 17th, respectively, in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage among Big Ten teams.
Rutgers' issues scoring inside are a worry here. It's shooting a league-low 47.8% from two-point range during Big Ten games. The Knights also rank 15th in the conference in offensive blocked shot rate. Those stats are more worrisome when facing the dominant Maryland frontcourt of Derik Queen and Julian Reese. The pair of bigs can control the paint on both ends in this matchup.
Furthermore, Maryland's offense continues to play at a high level. Queen and Reese can both go for 20 points apiece in any given game, but it's the Terps' underrated guards who can make a difference. Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Rodney Rice present a mismatch for Rutgers' backcourt. They anchor a Terps offense shooting 36.8% from three in conference play while ranking second and third nationally in offensive block and steal rates, respectively.
Take Maryland to win big at home. Last year, the Terps beat Rutgers by 17 and 14 points in their two meetings. They’re not the same rosters, of course, but that trend can continue with Maryland claiming multiple matchup advantages - let alone the motivation to get back on track after a loss.
Pick: Maryland -9.5 (-115)
Xavier at Villanova (-2.5) | O/U 141.5 (-110/-110)
Our final college basketball pick today brings us to a Big East matchup between Xavier and Villanova. When these teams faced off last month, Xavier won a low-scoring battle, 69-63. Instead of looking at the spread for this rematch, let's target the total.
Villanova is going through a rough stretch lately. It's 2-5 over the last seven games but got back on track this week with a 59-49 win at DePaul. Yes, the opponent was easy but Villanova allowing just 49 points on the road is a good sign in terms of defensive effort.
The Wildcats return home and will need to lean on its defense once again. They're allowing just 64.7 points per game at home in conference play and 63.5 points per game at home overall this season. Villanova's defense has shown cracks at times but in the toughest tests at home, it's held UConn (66 points), Creighton (62) and Cincinnati (60) all below the 70-point line.
Villanova also plays at an extremely slow pace (346th nationally), which regularly keeps games lower-scoring. The Wildcats run methodical offensive sets and rely on three-pointers for a high percentage of its scoring (29th among Division I). Though they are shooting an impressive 39.5% from three this year, that's a bit unsustainable in tougher matchups.
On that note, Xavier is holding Big East teams to 30.7% from deep so far. Its defense forces opponents inside while limiting scoring from the perimeter overall. As for the Musketeers' offense, their three-point shooting (38.3% this season) is a weapon, too. Yet, we can expect more misses in a tough road environment here. Plus, Xavier is a poor offensive-rebounding team (11th in the Big East) while Villanova is the conference's second-best on the defensive glass.
Going back to that first meeting between these teams, some stats are telling. There were only 132 total points scored despite Xavier shooting 40% from three and Villanova shooting 38.1% from deep. Musketeers guard Ryan Conwell scored a career-high 34 points with six made threes. That won't happen again. Meanwhile, there were 25 combined turnovers in the game.
Bank on Villanova's slow pace to dictate this matchup at home. Despite both teams shooting well from three-point range, negative regression could come.
Finally, the under is 3-1 in Villanova’s last four home games and 4-2 in its last six games overall. The under is 6-3-1 in Xavier's road/neutral contests this year. These two teams have also played to the under in eight of their last nine meetings, including four straight. Let's follow those trends.
Pick: Under 141.5 Points (-110)