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College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (11/21)

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It’s been a solid start to the season and is only getting more exciting with Feast Week upon us. Tonight features an awesome slate as the Maui Invitational continues along with multiple other in-season tournaments. We are starting to get some valuable data and seeing where some of the elite teams sit. As always be sure to shop around for the best odds. It may not be Thanksgiving yet but let’s eat early with some winning bets, shall we? 

Here are my best bets for Tuesday’s slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop. 

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Tuesday’s Top College Basketball Picks & Predictions

Last Time: 2-0 | Season: 10-4

Purdue vs. Tennessee

Straight up, these might be the best two teams in the nation. I know that’s easy to say now with both teams starting undefeated, but these are the only two teams I took serious championship futures on in the preseason (Iowa and Mississippi State were the other two for value) so I see this as a potential preview for the final game in April.

Purdue simply outlasted Gonzaga yesterday. The Boilermakers outscored the Bulldogs 43-28 and took down Mark Few and company on the back of a 25-point effort by Zach Edey. Tennessee’s defense stepped up late against Syracuse and finished the game on a 12-0 run to beat the Orange, 73-56. Now the No. 2 and No.7 teams face off in what should be a blockbuster.

Purdue so far owns the seventh-best three-point defense, but that should be with an asterisk. Gonzaga went 6-32 from deep yesterday and missed plenty of open looks, shooting 15 percent worse than expected via ShotQuality. I don’t know if the Boilermakers will be as lucky against the Volunteers, who cashed 5-14 three-pointers against Cuse.

This game will come down to defense. Both rank top five in KenPom efficiency metrics and give no freebies as Tennessee ranks in the top-10 in near-proximity, three-point, transition and second-chance defense. Jonas Aidoo and his 6-foot-11 frame should keep Edey honest at the very least. 

While Tennessee is known for its defense, Dalton Knecht is a playmaker who raises the floor of the Volunteers offense. He’s scored at least 17points in all four games so far. His ability to score at any level will be tricky for Purdue, a team that surprisingly struggles with near-proximity defense and ranks 89th. But Purdue is fourth in the nation at defensive free throw rate, so Tennessee can’t depend on the freebies from the charity stripe for a lot of their scoring here.

Purdue is about a two-point favorite and I see this game as a toss-up. We saw Purdue get up and run in transition in the second half yesterday and I don’t expect them to do that tonight. Tennessee has an all-around offensive look but they still don’t exactly push the pace. These defenses are legitimate units and playing in back-to-back games leads me to believe that fatigue may set in early and the pace of play will slow down. I’m taking the under here.  

Play: Under 134.5 (-110 @ DraftKings)

Kansas vs. Marquette

Honestly, it’s like we have our own mini Final Four today. And it’s only November! Christmas truly did come early.

Kansas basically comes off a bye game against Chaminade while Marquette comes off an insane back-and-forth victory over UCLA.

Marquette’s Tyler Kolek was held at bay with only nine points but David Joplin stepped up with 19 points and five buckets from deep. Oso Ighodaro added 14 points himself. These Golden Eagles are much deeper than people understand. Where Marquette benefits is their ability to take care of the ball with the 11th-best offensive turnover percentage early on this season. While Kansas may have an elite interior defense, they don’t force many turnovers, so Marquette should get plenty of shots off from opportunity alone.

On the other side of the ball, Kansas has been one of the most efficient offenses in the nation – ranking 10th in deep shooting and third with 66 percent shooting from inside the arc. 

I have said this before and will say this again but this will be a live bettors paradise. Kansas was down 58-44 against Kentucky at one point in the second half. Marquette was down 12 at one point with 15 minutes remaining. One thing I can guarantee is you should never sleep on these offenses and a double-digit lead can be snuffed out in moments.

Given the higher pace of play, the opportunity Marquette shooters will have and the efficiency of Kansas’ offensive attack, this game screams betting the Over. Furthermore, I expect it to be close late so free throws should help push this game past 158 points. The line is already moving so get on it.

Play: Over 157 (-110 @ BetMGM) 

Syracuse vs. Gonzaga

It may not be the most exciting game but you still have what should be an exciting game with a 160-point total and Gonzaga sitting around a 12.5-point favorite. 

I’ll keep this one short and sweet and simply advise taking a teaser one way or another. As I mentioned before, Gonzaga attempted 32 three-pointers against Purdue and made only six. Syracuse allows more three-point attempts than the Boilermakers do, so the Bulldogs may attempt 35-plus shots from deep today. If that happens, I have to imagine Gonzaga’s shooting improves.

Even if Gonzaga plans to take it to the hoop, Syracuse’s near-proximity defense is sub-300 so far in the nation. The Bulldogs should have the advantage on the boards while showing off their 15th-ranked second-chance offense.   

Both teams have a higher-than-average pace, but I simply trust Gonzaga’s ability to push the pace more. Ryan Nembhard is a solid facilitator and the Bulldogs’ depth in the frontcourt is apparent with Graham Ike, Braden Huff, Anton Watson, and Ben Gregg. Judah Mintz is a star for Syracuse but I simply don’t see the Orange being able to keep up after coming off a physical loss to Tennessee where they simply ran out of gas in the end. 

This game will have a lot of live betting potential as I am sure Gonzaga will go on plenty of runs. At the end of the day, I expect the last 10 minutes to be an offensive showcase for the Bulldogs, and for them to cover this double-digit spread.

Play: Gonzaga -12.0 (-110 @ DraftKings)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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