Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (2/5)
The 2024-25 college basketball season rolls on and we have another loaded Wednesday night of games to get some action on. Our top men’s college basketball bets today feature a Big East matchup of Creighton vs. Providence. Plus, we dive deep into a pair of ACC games with Louisville facing Boston College and then California hosting NC State.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 5.
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Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Creighton (-3.5) at Providence - O/U 142.5
When Creighton and Providence faced off last month, the Bluejays won convincingly by 20 points at home. Tonight's matchup should be much closer despite that result. The Friars have a real shot at pulling the upset with multiple factors on their side.
First, this Big East rivalry deserves some important context. Creighton and Providence have split their season series for five straight seasons. The Friars have also beaten the Bluejays at least once in 10 of the last 11 years since the latter joined the conference. Plus, Providence is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 10 meetings with four straight covers at home vs. Creighton.
Providence is playing notably better after that January loss to Creighton. The Friars are 3-1 ATS in the four games since with a pair of two-point road losses at St. John's and Villanova. They came close to upsetting St. John's on Saturday and can carry the momentum into this home spot. Providence is also 8-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including 3-1 ATS as a home dog.
Creighton, meanwhile, is a bit overdue for some negative regression. The Bluejays are on a seven-game winning streak and are 12-1-1 ATS over the last 14 contests. That includes eight straight covers as well. As good as they've been, it's an ideal time to sell high.
Creighton is coming off a big road win at Villanova to boost its NCAA Tournament resume and standing in the Big East. A three-pointer in the final seconds completed the Bluejays' come-from-behind effort in a tough road environment. The Bluejays may be in for a letdown ahead of another lengthy road trip up to Rhode Island tonight. Plus, this is a classic trap/sandwich spot with Creighton hosting Marquette in a marquee matchup this weekend.
Despite a pedestrian 11-11 record overall and a 5-6 mark in the Big East, Providence has been resilient and continues to play hard. Kim English's squad is especially overperforming in games after a loss. The Friars are 15-6 ATS off a loss over the past two seasons, including 7-3 ATS this year.
Pick: Providence +3.5 (-112)
Louisville (-13.5) at Boston College - O/U 146.5
Pat Kelsey has completely turned Louisville around in his first season on the job. A year ago, the program went 8-24 overall and 3-17 in the ACC. So far this season, the Cardinals are 16-6 overall and 9-2 in conference play under Kelsey. Louisville is also 29th in the latest NET rankings and 30th at KenPom.
The Cardinals just had their 10-game winning streak snapped over the weekend, losing to Georgia Tech on the road. Despite that result - and playing a second straight road game - they have a great bounce-back opportunity against a weak Boston College team tonight.
This is a mismatch in many senses. Louisville is 25th and 41st nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, respectively (per KenPom). Meanwhile, Boston College is 242nd on defense and 167th on offense. The Eagles are also the ACC's second-worst defensive team during conference play in opposing three-point percentage, turnover rate, and effective field goal percentage.
Before losing on Saturday, Louisville had won by double-digits in four straight games and in eight of the previous 10 contests. That included a 13-point home win vs. North Carolina, a 10-point home win vs. Clemson, and a 25-point road victory at SMU. The weekend loss to Georgia Tech is a small hiccup in a dominant run through conference play. Since January 1, the Cardinals rank as the 10th-best team in the country, according to BartTorvik.
Boston College will be Louisville's easiest opponent in over a month. During this stretch, the Cardinals boast multiple wins of 14+ points against three other lower-tier ACC teams (Syracuse, Florida State, and Virginia twice). The Eagles are a clear step below those squads and rank 204th nationally in Torvik's ratings since January 1st.
Louisville is 9-2 ATS over the past 11 games and an impressive 8-2 ATS in road/neutral games this season. Since the Cards lost outright as road favorites last time out, it's a good time to back them. Conversely, Boston College is just 4-10 ATS over its last 14 contests. The Eagles also may be in for a letdown after a last-second three-pointer gifted them an upset home win vs. Florida State on Saturday.
Pick: Louisville -13.5 (-102)
North Carolina State at California (-2.5) - O/U 138.5
Our final college basketball pick tonight brings us to another ACC matchup. California hosts North Carolina State in a spot that favors the home team in multiple ways.
Notably, this will be NC State's first conference road trip to the West Coast - a new and unfamiliar aspect of the current ACC. The long travel is impossible to ignore here. This is also the first time the Wolfpack will play outside the Eastern Time Zone since the middle of December. They're 0-3 ATS in non-East Coast games so far this season.
Furthermore, NC State is 1-6 ATS in road/neutral games this year and just 3-7 ATS in conference play. Besides the spread, the Wolfpack are stuck in a six-game losing streak and they're just 2-8 straight up in conference play. This is far from the team that made a Final Four run a year ago.
California, admittedly, isn't exactly among the top teams in the ACC. The Golden Bears are 4-7 in the conference and just 11-11 overall this season. Yet, the home-court advantage means more in this situation. Plus, we should see a motivated effort from Cal after it lost at home to Syracuse over the weekend.
In terms of X's and O's in this one, Cal doesn't offer much confidence. It ranks dead last in the ACC in effective field-goal percentage (43.9%) and three-point percentage (26.3%) during conference play. However, NC State isn't much better. The Wolfpack are 17th and 15th, respectively, in those categories.
Cal does boast an edge in two key areas, though. The Golden Bears are the ACC's best at avoiding turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds, per KenPom. Even with Andrej Stojakovic still out, Cal's backcourt can be relied on. Freshman Jeremiah Wilkinson, in particular, has stepped up - averaging 21.0 PPG over the last four games with Stojakovic sidelined.
NC State's offense, on the other hand, is getting inconsistent production from its backcourt. Those issues could come to the forefront in a tough road trip here. Cal's edge at the guard spots should lead to the home win and cover. The Golden Bears beat the Wolfpack by three on the road last month and should do it again.
Pick: California -2.5 (-120)