College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/13)
Welcome back to another day of best bets for the college basketball slate. Conference tournaments are rolling, the sun is shining, and I can almost hear the Selection Sunday bells. We're down the home stretch with auto-bids already handed out and we finally have reached the point where more and more ranked teams are playing in their conference tournaments. I'm going to focus more on the mid-major finals today, to give you a sense of some Cinderella's to look out for when the tournament starts rolling.
Here are my best bets for Wednesday's slate. You can follow all my bets on my BettingPros profile as I add last-minute bets and player props once they drop.
Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | Season: 54-48
Lehigh vs. Colgate
Attempting to get the auto-bid out of the Patriot League, Lehigh and Colgate face off in their conference tournament final with an NCAA Tournament bid on the line. Colgate sits around a seven-point favorite with a total of roughly 136.
I don't want to seem unexcited about a conference championship game, that would be ridiculous, but I'm honestly a little surprised by this spread. Colgate is the flat-out better team and they showed that in the Patriot League regular season, going 16-2 while sweeping Lehigh. Braeden Smith has been awesome at point with Keegan Records holding down the frontcourt.
One of Colgate's biggest flaws is their inability to rebound misses. Ranking in the bottom 300 of the country in offensive rebound rate, when the shots aren't falling, there isn't much of a backup plan. The thing is, Lehigh is even worse, and a much worse shooting team as well. Colgate's offense may not be as electric as it has been in the past, but they still knock down threes and play solid defense.
Lehigh ranks outside the top 300 in three-point defense so there's a chance Colgate runs the table with the perimeter looks they will get. Lehigh barely eeked out an overtime win to get here in the first place, and I imagine Colgate will clean up well.
Play: Colgate -6.5 (-110 on FanDuel)
UCF vs. BYU
It’s not a championship game but one where I have a confident read so might as well write about it, right? After getting the bye, the Cougars are around a five-point favorite with a total of around 145.
This game screams regression, for both teams. In their first matchup, BYU won 90-88, but led 48-29 at one point and never surrendered the lead. In UCF's opening-round game against Oklahoma State, the Knights shot 50 percent from beyond the arc. After averaging 31 percent all year with a sub-150-ranked offense, I can't imagine that happening again tonight.
The Knight's defense is solid, but their perimeter defense has holes. Considering this is a neutral-court game, I am a little hesitant to blindly trust BYU's ability to drain shots all game, but they've shown their ability to shoot well away from home, like when they went 13-for-34 at Kansas.
It took me a while to come around on the Cougars but I expect them to take care of business here. It isn't exactly exciting to go with favorites but most of the time in these situations, the cream rises to the top. With the number of three-pointers BYU is expected to take, this game will be a live betting galore.
Play: BYU -5.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Nicholls State vs. McNeese State
Finally, we have the Southland Tournament Final. After a late overtime battle, Nicholls State took down Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to earn a chance at the Big Dance. The only problem is that they are facing a true juggernaut in McNeese State.
McNeese opened around a 15.5-point favorite and it's already moving in their direction. Ranking in the top 75 in offensive and defensive efficiency, it makes sense why. The Cowboys will force turnovers, slow you down, and can make perimeter shots like no other, ranking ninth in DI ball at doing so.
But this is the conference tournament championship, right? Nicholls has to keep it close. You'd think that could be the case, but in both meetings this year, Will Wade's team truly dominated. I'm hesitant to take the points but I am trusting of one thing – McNeese's defense. Ranking sixth in turnover percentage, Nicholls is going to have trouble even getting a shot off each possession considering offensively they rank in the bottom 300 in the same category. Also considering the quick turnaround, I have to imagine there will be some level of exhaustion that will reward slower play. Give me the Under here but make sure to watch this game because McNeese will be a popular Cinderella pick come tourney time.
Play: Under 138 Total Points (-130 on DraftKings)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: