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College Basketball PAC-12 Conference Tournament Picks & Predictions (2023)

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We realized in 2021 that bizarre events can occur in Las Vegas during the Pac-12 men’s conference basketball championship, as fifth-seeded Oregon State Beavers, who were predicted to finish last in the preseason, shocked the field to get an automatic invitation to the tournament. They then went on to eventually make it all the way to the Elite Eight, and a new standard was set for a tournament often considered an afterthought in the world of college hoops.

Although it’s unlikely that this year will see that kind of pandemonium, it just might. When the bracket was released on Sunday, UCLA and Arizona earned the top seeds, but there are a few other teams in this tournament desperate for enough wins to make the Big Dance.

Let’s take a closer look at a few teams I think will find success in Sin City starting tonight.

PAC-12 Conference Tournament

Dates: March 8th-11th
Venue: T-Mobile Arena — Las Vegas, NV
Top Seed: UCLA Bruins

Previous Winners:

  • 2022 — Arizona
  • 2021 — Oregon State
  • 2020 — N/A
  • 2019 — Oregon
  • 2018 — Arizona

Favorite to Watch

Arizona (+175 at BettingPros Consensus)

Down from a peak of +220, I still think there is some value in the Wildcats.

On Thursday, they will take on the winner of Stanford vs. Utah and are expected to be a double-digit favorite in both contests, and Arizona State or USC will come next if the bracket remains firm. After losing to Arizona State at home in the previous encounter on a buzzer-beater, Arizona swept USC and would probably welcome the chance to play Arizona State again.

Arizona’s performance in this tournament and beyond will, however, be largely based on how well it defends. Arizona gave up 78.3 points per game in its final three games after a promising season up until then. 89 of those points were given to an ASU team that has trouble making 3-point shots, a performance they surely want back.

Teams will score against Arizona with the extra possessions because of the game’s tempo, but if they can keep their opponents around the 70-point mark (season average: 71.9), they should be just fine.

Top Live Underdog

Arizona State (+1500 at BetMGM)

We’re staying in the Valley of the Sun for this one, heading north to Tempe to play Arizona State.

Arizona State’s half-court buzzer-beater victory over Arizona improved its NCAA Tournament standing significantly. However, it still needs to improve its resume after dropping its final two games in the regular season.

Like USC, Arizona State will need to come close to winning this tournament, and for that, it must rely on the strength of its defense. ASU is fifth in 2-point percentage defense and ranks 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency, as they come into this one having kept six of their previous nine opponents to under 70 points, either forcing turnovers or rim protection.

With head coach Bobby Hurley’s job surely on the line with an early exit, look for them to make a run.

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