College Basketball Picks & Predictions: Creighton vs. UConn (Tuesday)

by BettingPros Staff |
Feb 11, 2025

Sports betting picks in 15 daily minutes! BettingPros host Matt Perrault (@sportstalkmatt) will be here for you every day all year round as we run through the most notable sports bets while providing our picks. Tune in for our rapid-fire shows covering every sport as you look to place your wagers. And don’t forget to join the BettingPros Discord Chat for live betting advice!

Let’s dive into one of Matt’s top picks and predictions for today’s game Creighton vs. UConn.

College Basketball Picks for Tuesday: Creighton vs. UConn

Matt Perrault's Breakdown & Pick: Creighton -3 vs. UConn

Game Overview:

Matchup: UConn at Creighton
Line: Creighton -3
KenPom Projection: Creighton wins by 5
Location: CHI Health Center Omaha (Omaha, NE)

Matt highlights this game as a "system play" due to Creighton's incredible ATS streak in Big East play. He acknowledges that UConn is the top-ranked team in the country and deserving of their status, but he can't ignore the betting trend that Creighton has been riding.

Team Trends & Performance:

Creighton Bluejays (18-7, 9-5 Big East, 11-1-1 ATS in Conference Play)

The hottest ATS team in the Big East, covering 10 straight games.
10-0 ATS in their last 10 games, meaning bettors have been cashing on Creighton for over a month.
5-6 ATS at home, but that is somewhat misleading due to early struggles-Creighton is peaking at the right time.
Beat UConn at UConn earlier this season-a huge result.
Offensive Efficiency (KenPom #8)
- 5th in effective field goal percentage
- Top-10 in two-point shooting
Defense is solid, ranking top 40 in defensive efficiency.

UConn Huskies (22-2, 12-1 Big East, 3-8 ATS in Big East Play)

Elite team but struggling ATS in conference play (3-8 ATS).
5-6 ATS on the road, showing vulnerability away from home.
KenPom's #1 ranked team in the country-they are elite across the board:
- 6th in offensive efficiency
- 4th in defensive efficiency
Coming off a 9-point win against Butler, but failed to cover a -12.5 spread.

Key Factors:

Creighton's ATS Dominance in Big East Play
- Creighton has covered 10 straight games in conference play.
- They are 11-1-1 ATS in the Big East overall-the most profitable team in the conference.
Home-Court Advantage & Revenge Spot for UConn
- Creighton is extremely strong at home, with a great fan base in Omaha.
- UConn will look for revenge after losing to Creighton at home, but this remains a tough road spot.
UConn's ATS Struggles in Big East Play
- UConn is just 3-8 ATS in conference play, meaning they've been overvalued by the market.
- KenPom projects a 5-point win for Creighton, meaning there's value at -3.

The Pick:

✅ Creighton -3 (1.1 units, -110)

Matt's reasoning:
- Creighton has covered 10 straight games-he's riding the hot hand.
- UConn has struggled ATS in Big East play (3-8 ATS).
- Creighton already beat UConn on the road, and now gets them at home.
- KenPom projects a 5-point win, so there is value at -3.

Matt believes Creighton continues its ATS dominance and pulls off another win at home, covering the -3 spread.

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Find out about all the plays on today’s edition of the Daily Juice Podcast.

Notable Timestamps:

00:03 - Introduction and Monday’s recap (1-1 night, small loss).
00:41 - Discussion on the BettingPros company trip in Las Vegas.
02:40 - Explanation of why there is no live stream with Terrell Ferman this week.
03:09 - Breakdown of Tuesday's betting card, with three official plays.
04:08 - Analysis of Tennessee vs. Kentucky, including ATS trends and tempo contrast.
06:21 - Official bet on Kentucky as a home underdog.
07:30 - Breakdown of Florida vs. Mississippi State, focusing on ATS records and efficiency metrics.
09:17 - Discussion on Florida as a team to watch for NCAA Tournament futures.
10:56 - Potential additional play on Vanderbilt against Auburn.
11:26 - Breakdown of Creighton vs. UConn, highlighting Creighton's 10-game ATS win streak.
12:34 - Mention of a possible fourth play, either Vanderbilt or the Georgia Under.
13:37 - Recap of official bets and Discord channel details.

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