College Basketball Picks & Predictions: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s (Saturday)
Welcome to February and another Saturday college basketball slate as we are one month closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place and bracketologists everywhere are coming out of the woodwork as the bubble debate begins to heat up.
It's not the most interesting slate but it's highlighted by Tennessee trying to get revenge against Florida, John Calipari returning to Kentucky and what hopefully is a better-than-the-spread Duke-UNC rivalry game. After starting the year rough, it's been a great last month or so. Hopefully, we will continue the heater with all the data available. Let's get to it. Here are our top college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday’s game Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's
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Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's
Location: University Credit Union Pavilion | Moraga, CA
Line: Gonzaga -1.5 | Total: 146.5
Saint Mary's has this game in the bag from a momentum perspective. Since January 1st, the Gaels have been a top-10 team while Gonzaga ranks 22nd with some questionable losses for what the program has built expectations for. Shortening the sample size to their last five games, Saint Mary's is the fifth-ranked Division I (DI) team with 109 points of wins.
The key to taking down Saint Mary's is to force them into foul trouble and limit their second-ranked offensive rebound rate. I'm not sure if Gonzaga is going to do much of either. Saint Mary's only allows 15% of opponent shots to come in transition, so I expect their methodical pace to get to the Bulldogs as well. Mitchell Saxen and Paulius Murauskas should dominate on the glass and Gonzaga's interior defense ranks outside the top 150, so if you're looking to bet their prop overs, I support that mindset.
My biggest worry is Saint Mary's running out of steam late in the second half, but with their 358th-ranked pace of play, I'm not entirely worried about that. Their near-proximity defense ranks 11th and Gonzaga is expected to take 40% of their shots from there tonight. The Gaels’ perimeter defense is lacking but that's not where Mark Few's squad prefers to take their shots and Gonzaga's fifth-ranked free throw shooting will be negated by the Gaels’ disciplined defense. Give me the home dog here in a game I'll have to stay up until Sunday to watch.
Prediction: Saint Mary's 75, Gonzaga 71
Best Bet: Saint Mary's +2.5 (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)