College Basketball Picks & Predictions: Houston vs. Arizona (Saturday)
Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer and closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place and bracketologists everywhere are coming out of the woodwork as the bubble debate begins to heat up while love is in the air. With the Super Bowl gone, it finally feels like basketball season. Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding, and there are some under-the-radar matchups that I highly recommend watching. After starting the year rough, it's been a great last month or so and if you only look at the picks I've given out in this article, it's been nothing but successful. Let's keep that momentum going, shall we? Here’s a look at our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s college basketball game Houston vs. Arizona.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Houston vs. Arizona
Last Article: 1-2 | Season (Articles): 30-24 | Season (Overall): 111-116-1
Houston vs. Arizona
Location: McKale Memorial Center | Tucson, AZ
Line: Houston -1.5 | Total: 137.5
No team has confused me more than the Arizona Wildcats this basketball season. After starting 4-5, Arizona has been on a tear, going 13-2 with wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech. They took a step back with a road loss to Kansas State but can at least blame their 2-of-22 shooting from beyond the arc on that one. Since that December loss to UCLA, Tommy Lloyd's squad ranks eighth in D-I with a top-15 offense and defense, per Bart Torvik.
Houston has been doing Houston things, going 16-1 since Dec. 1 after a 4-3 start to the year. They've found their footing on defense – surprise, surprise – playing their physical way of forcing opponents deep into the shot clock while allowing nothing down low with a top-10 mid-range and near-proximity defensive shooting percentage.
What stands out to me is how Arizona can take advantage of the Cougars' weaknesses. The Wildcats have gone 10-2 this season when hitting a free throw rate of at least 34.8 percent, and Houston's defensive FTR sits at 35.1%. Three of four Houston losses have come with their four worst such games. The free points at the charity stripe add up.
Another standout aspect of today's game is how Arizona's defense lines up to counter Houston. Kelvin Sampson's squad ranks eighth in OReb rate, but Arizona is 15th at limiting second-chance conversions. Houston expects to shoot 40 percent of their shots in the mid-range where Arizona has the advantage defensively. When looking at home court, Arizona reps the 80th best home court advantage per KenPom; not too shabby.
As long as Caleb Love doesn't try to do too much, I see Arizona with a big win here. He'll get open looks from deep while KJ Lewis and Jaden Bradley should get to the charity stripe. Tobe Awaka and Henri Veesaar should anchor the Arizona frontcourt and this all-encompassing effort will lead them to a victory.
Prediction: Arizona 71, Houston 66
Best Bet: Arizona +1.5 (-105 at BetMGM)