College Basketball Picks & Predictions: Kentucky vs. Tennessee (Tuesday)

by BettingPros Staff |
Feb 11, 2025

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Let’s dive into one of Matt’s top picks and predictions for today’s game Kentucky vs. Tennessee.

College Basketball Picks for Tuesday: Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Matt Perrault's Breakdown & Pick: Kentucky +2.5 vs. Tennessee

Game Overview:

Matchup: Tennessee at Kentucky
Line: Tennessee -2.5
Total: 149.5
Location: Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)

Matt begins his analysis by noting that these two teams have already faced off this season, with Kentucky winning the first matchup at Tennessee as a 10.5-point underdog. Despite that result, Tennessee comes into this game as a road favorite of 2.5 points.

Team Trends & Performance:

Kentucky:
- Has struggled at times but thrives offensively.
- Ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency (KenPom).
- 14th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in three-point shooting, and 30th in two-point shooting.
- Plays at a fast tempo (ranked 32nd in adjusted tempo).
- Historically tough to beat at Rupp Arena, especially in high-profile games.
Tennessee:
- Elite defense, ranked #1 in defensive efficiency (KenPom).
- 1st in effective field goal percentage defense, 1st in three-point defense, and 10th in two-point defense.
- Plays a much slower tempo (ranked 336th in adjusted tempo).
- Coming off a dominant 18-point road win over Oklahoma.

Key Factors:

Contrasting Styles
- Kentucky thrives in fast-paced, high-scoring games.
- Tennessee prefers a slower, grind-it-out style with lockdown defense.
- The tempo battle will be crucial-if Kentucky can speed the game up, their offense should win out.
Home-Court Advantage
- Rupp Arena is one of the toughest places to play in college basketball.
- Kentucky has historically stepped up in big home games and should have a huge crowd backing them.
ATS Trends & Betting Market Movement
- Kentucky opened at +3, but the line has moved to +2.5, indicating some money on the Wildcats.
- KenPom projects this game as a two-point win for Tennessee, making the spread fairly tight.
- However, Matt disagrees with the sharp action on Tennessee, believing Kentucky has more value as a home underdog.

The Pick:

✅ Kentucky +2.5 (1.1 units, -110)

Matt's reasoning:
- Kentucky has already proven they can beat Tennessee on the road.
- At home with a fired-up crowd, they should have a great shot to win outright.
- Rupp Arena's atmosphere and Kentucky's elite offense should neutralize Tennessee's defensive edge.

Matt expects a close battle but trusts Kentucky’s offense at home to pull off another big win or at least cover as a home underdog.

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Find out about all the plays on today’s edition of the Daily Juice Podcast.

Notable Timestamps:

00:03 - Introduction and Monday’s recap (1-1 night, small loss).
00:41 - Discussion on the BettingPros company trip in Las Vegas.
02:40 - Explanation of why there is no live stream with Terrell Ferman this week.
03:09 - Breakdown of Tuesday's betting card, with three official plays.
04:08 - Analysis of Tennessee vs. Kentucky, including ATS trends and tempo contrast.
06:21 - Official bet on Kentucky as a home underdog.
07:30 - Breakdown of Florida vs. Mississippi State, focusing on ATS records and efficiency metrics.
09:17 - Discussion on Florida as a team to watch for NCAA Tournament futures.
10:56 - Potential additional play on Vanderbilt against Auburn.
11:26 - Breakdown of Creighton vs. UConn, highlighting Creighton's 10-game ATS win streak.
12:34 - Mention of a possible fourth play, either Vanderbilt or the Georgia Under.
13:37 - Recap of official bets and Discord channel details.

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