College Basketball Picks & Predictions: UConn vs. Xavier (Saturday)
Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we are past the frigid week in most of America and the songs of Spring sound in the distance. We're over halfway through the season, and with the NFL dying down, the best sport in the land garners more attention. Today features two of the best matchups of the season and some sneaky games as well. After starting the year rough, the clouds are parting, and the sun seems to be shining down on the valley after going 9-3 over the last two weeks of articles. Hopefully, I pull off the same magic trick today. Let's get to it. Here are our top college basketball picks and predictions for UConn vs. Xavier.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: UConn vs. Xavier
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UConn vs. Xavier
Location: Cintas Center | Cincinnati, OH
Line: Xavier -1.5 | Total: 142.5
It's pretty odd to see a 12-8 Xavier team favored over the UConn, but it's deserved. The Huskies rank 305th in Haslemetrics momentum rate, whereas Xavier ranks 91st. Dan Hurley's squad has been struggling defensively, dropping two out of their last four games, escaping with a home win over a sub-par Butler squad. They've been foul-heavy and cannot defend the perimeter to save their lives, but they are due for some positive regression in that sense, as Will Warren points out. Alex Karaban and Samson Johnson have been effective down, and their offense is still top-10, but that feels like a consolation prize for the 14-5 Huskies team that's built such high program expectations.
With Xavier losing to UConn in overtime on the road in December, I'm guessing they've had this game circled and highlighted since then. It finally seems like Xavier is finding their footing as the sleeper DI team they were pegged for in the preseason. They've won three of four with a win over Marquette and an overtime defeat to St. John's on the road. Not bad. Zach Freemantle was also absent the last time these two teams met, and the Musketeers still went toe-to-toe in a hostile environment.
It helped that they shot over 50 percent from deep, but that's exactly the kind of opportunity that will open up for them again today. UConn's perimeter defense is bad, as a reminder, so I expect Ryan Conwell or Marcus Foster to eat with Jerome Hunter a viable high-scoring candidate as well. Freemantle's, Dayvion McKnight’s, and Dailyn Swain's high offensive foul rate will be helpful as well against a UConn defense that allows a quarter of opponent points to come from the charity stripe, 13th highest in DI ball. Xavier will get their looks from deep and at the free throw line on their way to what I expect will be an effective offensive night.
Meanwhile, Sean Miller's squad holds up defensively, limiting transition points and ranking 57th in near-proximity defense. Again, not bad. They are playing better basketball right now and have a home-court advantage. This will be a fun game to watch and I expect the Musketeers to get revenge.
Prediction: Xavier 76, UConn 71
Best Bet: Xavier -1.5 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)