College Basketball Picks & Predictions: Wisconsin vs. Purdue (Saturday)
Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer and closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place and bracketologists everywhere are coming out of the woodwork as the bubble debate begins to heat up while love is in the air. With the Super Bowl gone, it finally feels like basketball season. Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding, and there are some under-the-radar matchups that I highly recommend watching. After starting the year rough, it's been a great last month or so and if you only look at the picks I've given out in this article, it's been nothing but successful. Let's keep that momentum going, shall we? Here’s a look at our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s college basketball game Wisconsin vs. Purdue.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Wisconsin vs. Purdue
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Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Location: Mackey Arena | West Lafayette, IN
Line: Purdue -5.5 | Total: 149.5
I'm glad this game is on CBS because I don't feel as if the Big Ten has gotten a lot of love this year. These are the two best teams in the conference, each consistently ranked in the top 15 nationally across the analytical sites.
For Wisconsin, John Tonje has been a pleasant surprise on his third team in as many years. He is a free throw machine who can light it up from deep and only seems to continue improving, averaging over 18 points a night. John Blackwell is right behind, continuing on his solid freshman year, while Nolan Winter, Kamari McGee, and Carter Gilmore all add efficient minutes with each ranking in the top 40 in KenPom's offensive rating among all DI players. Steven Crowl is the centerpiece of the frontcourt and is a major contributor to Wisconsin's excellent interior offense.
With Purdue, it's become a two-man show between Trey Kaufman-Renn inside and Braden Smith out. Fletcher Loyer is the sharpshooting third option, and the rest of the cast are significant role players. Their loss to Michigan highlighted how weak their interior offense has become sans Zach Edey, and it will be interesting to see if Caleb Furst is up for the challenge. For context, the Boilermakers rank 313th in near-proximity defensive shooting percentage.
However, Purdue’s defense does well in limiting the opportunities for looks down low. It funnels shots to the perimeter and won't send the Badgers to the charity stripe all that often. Haslametrics projects Wisconsin to take over half of its shots from deep, which is great for the top-25 perimeter defense Purdue exhibits.
Wisconsin's defense should also play here, with a top-25 mid-range defense where Purdue loves to shoot the ball, and the Badgers should keep Purdue off the boards and won't allow much in transition. The methodical play of Wisconsin will take away anything easy for the home team and force them to make difficult shots.
To lay 5.5 points is a lot, but the total is where my eye is. Even if Wisconsin is playing efficient ball and finding looks down low, that means they are more than likely slowing down the pace to set up their half-court offense. The total continues to creep up and let it because I love the under here.
Prediction: Purdue 74, Wisconsin 70
Best Bet: Under 150 Total Points (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)