College Basketball Picks & Predictions: Xavier vs. Villanova (Sunday)
Super Bowl LIX is the big headliner, but it isn’t the only sporting event on Sunday. We have a small slate of college basketball games on the Sunday schedule as well before the Chiefs and Eagles take center stage. Let’s dive into the college hoops slate and lock in some picks. We’ll focus on Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State, Xavier vs. Villanova and Rutgers vs. Maryland.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, February 9th’s game Xavier vs. Villanova.
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Sunday's Best College Basketball Bets: Xavier vs. Villanova
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Xavier vs. Villanova
Our final college basketball pick today brings us to a Big East matchup between Xavier and Villanova. When these teams faced off last month, Xavier won a low-scoring battle, 69-63. Instead of looking at the spread for this rematch, let's target the total.
Villanova is going through a rough stretch lately. It's 2-5 over the last seven games but got back on track this week with a 59-49 win at DePaul. Yes, the opponent was easy but Villanova allowing just 49 points on the road is a good sign in terms of defensive effort.
The Wildcats return home and will need to lean on its defense once again. They're allowing just 64.7 points per game at home in conference play and 63.5 points per game at home overall this season. Villanova's defense has shown cracks at times but in the toughest tests at home, it's held UConn (66 points), Creighton (62) and Cincinnati (60) all below the 70-point line.
Villanova also plays at an extremely slow pace (346th nationally), which regularly keeps games lower-scoring. The Wildcats run methodical offensive sets and rely on three-pointers for a high percentage of its scoring (29th among Division I). Though they are shooting an impressive 39.5% from three this year, that's a bit unsustainable in tougher matchups.
On that note, Xavier is holding Big East teams to 30.7% from deep so far. Its defense forces opponents inside while limiting scoring from the perimeter overall. As for the Musketeers' offense, their three-point shooting (38.3% this season) is a weapon, too. Yet, we can expect more misses in a tough road environment here. Plus, Xavier is a poor offensive-rebounding team (11th in the Big East) while Villanova is the conference's second-best on the defensive glass.
Going back to that first meeting between these teams, some stats are telling. There were only 132 total points scored despite Xavier shooting 40% from three and Villanova shooting 38.1% from deep. Musketeers guard Ryan Conwell scored a career-high 34 points with six made threes. That won't happen again. Meanwhile, there were 25 combined turnovers in the game.
Bank on Villanova's slow pace to dictate this matchup at home. Despite both teams shooting well from three-point range, negative regression could come.
Finally, the under is 3-1 in Villanova’s last four home games and 4-2 in its last six games overall. The under is 6-3-1 in Xavier's road/neutral contests this year. These two teams have also played to the under in eight of their last nine meetings, including four straight. Let's follow those trends.
Pick: Under 141.5 Points (-110)