College Basketball Predictions: Illinois vs. Duke (Saturday)
Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer and closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place with the bracket reveal for the top 16 seeds as we only have a few more weekends before conference tournament play begins.
Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding, and there are some under-the-radar matchups I highly recommend watching. It may be cold but we're staying hot in the betting world, except last week.
Here are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s college basketball game Illinois vs. Duke.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Illinois vs. Duke
Last Article: 0-3 | Season (Articles): 30-27 | Season (Overall): 114-122-1
Illinois vs. Duke
Location: Madison Square Garden | New York, NY
Line: Duke -8.5 | Total: 152.5
For a game I've been anticipating since the season started, I would not have expected the line to get out to double digits but it makes sense for the season Duke is having. Cooper Flagg has been everything as advertised and is the frontrunner for National Player of the Year.
Kon Knueppel has been Flagg's Robin, adding 13 points, four boards, and multiple assists a game with some defensive prowess to add to it. Freshman Khaman Maluach is one of the most efficient players in the nation with his 7-foot-2 frame and this trio of underclassmen have gelled well with the experienced grouping of Tyrese Proctor, Sion James and Caleb Foster.
Conversely, Illinois has been a chaotic team. They play at the 16th-fastest pace in the league and rank 349th in Haslametrics' consistency metric. Anything can happen here. Morez Johnson is out for the year, seriously handicapping Brad Underwood's team on the offensive boards, which is a clear path to stopping this Duke squad.
No one has stepped up as a serious perimeter threat. Defensively, they allow the third-lowest rate of perimeter looks in the league. This should limit long rebounds and second-chance looks Duke depends on.
Illinois loves to run and gun. While they've faced Tennessee, I'm not sure if they will know how to handle the Blue Devils’ transition defense. Only 10% of opponent looks come in transition against Jon Scheyer's squad, the fourth-lowest in the league.
Illinois is also a team that depends on second chance opportunities and getting to the charity stripe, but against the size of Duke and the absence of Johnson, I don't expect them to be able to depend on their bread and butter.
A lot of things can happen, so while I'll give my best bet, I do advise taking some alts. Neither team is consistent with their play and playing on a neutral court in a primetime game always allows for greater nerves and randomness. What I am confident about is that Illinois will be limited with whatever they try to do offensively.
The Fighting Illini rank outside the top 300 in perimeter shooting, they won't have much of a transition game and Duke's size and rebounding will limit many second-chance looks. This game will be close, but I feel more confident about Illinois not reaching their team total.
Prediction: Duke 78, Illinois 68
Best Bet: Illinois Team Total Under 73.5 Points (-118 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: