College Basketball Predictions: Kentucky vs. Alabama (Saturday)
Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer and closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place with the bracket reveal for the top 16 seeds as we only have a few more weekends before conference tournament play begins.
Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding, and there are some under-the-radar matchups I highly recommend watching. It may be cold but we're staying hot in the betting world, except last week.
Here are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s college basketball game Kentucky vs. Alabama.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Kentucky vs. Alabama
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Kentucky vs. Alabama
Location: Coleman Coliseum | Tuscaloosa, AL
Line: Alabama -10.0 | Total: 180.5
What a treat when we have a college basketball game with a total of 180. Per EvanMiya's score predictors, this is the highest total of any game for the rest of the season - by six points. And it might not be high enough.
Both defenses have been miserable recently. Alabama just got trounced by Mizzou, allowing a plethora of open looks and 1.39 points per possession en route to a 110-98 defeat. That's NBA numbers. Kentucky meanwhile has the 104th defensive efficiency since February 1st, giving up 89, 98 and 78 points in their three losses.
Both teams run at a rapid pace with Alabama leading Division I (DI) in pace with Kentucky not far behind with the 29th overall fastest possession rate. Kentucky may rank 10th in perimeter defense but Will Warren has noted how Kentucky is due for regression in that department.
Even in the first matchup, this game nearly cracked 200 points with a 102-97 Alabama win. It helps when both teams shoot for over 38% from deep. Both teams rank outside the top 345 in causing turnovers and Alabama is quite capable of converting misses and getting to the charity stripe.
The elephant in the room that I've buried the lede a bit on is injuries. Lamont Butler, Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa have all been ruled out for this game. Butler and Robinson combined for 28 points in round one of this battle and are big losses to Kentucky's perimeter shooting and defense.
The last time I wrote about Alabama, I thought it would be a bounceback game against Missouri. I was wrong, I will own that. But I think I just jumped the gun a bit. Kentucky ranks 349th in away-from-home play, per Haslametrics and is playing short-handed after an incredible victory over Vanderbilt.
It feels like a lot but I expect Alabama to be able to score anywhere on the court tonight while Kentucky may struggle with the pace and depth problems Nate Oats and Co. will force. Bama might make this ugly in Tuscaloosa.
Prediction: Alabama 95, Kentucky 80
Best Bet: Alabama -9.5 (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: