College Basketball Predictions: Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga (Saturday)
Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer and closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place with the bracket reveal for the top 16 seeds as we only have a few more weekends before conference tournament play begins.
Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding, and there are some under-the-radar matchups I highly recommend watching. It may be cold but we're staying hot in the betting world, except last week.
Here are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s college basketball game Saint Mary's at Gonzaga.
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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets: Saint Mary's at Gonzaga
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Saint Mary's at Gonzaga
Location: McCarthey Athletic Center | Spokane, WA
Line: Gonzaga -5.5 | Total: 143.5
I can't pass up another good old-fashioned rivalry game, now can I? For those who don't know, these are two good teams. Gonzaga was ninth in KenPom‘s preseason rankings and has gotten back up to 10th after a bumpy start.
The Bulldogs have a great inside-out approach with Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike. Although they may lack in size and physicality, they make up for it with speed and finesse with the 15th-fastest offensive rate in the nation. They won't shoot a ton of threes but are effective inside the arc as they take care of the ball and have a lot of experience under Mark Few.
Saint Mary's is the forever underdog. The Gaels consistently rank high under Randy Bennett but have only reached the Sweet 16 once during his tenure in 2010. Their slow, methodical style can lure teams to sleep but they pound the offensive glass with nearly a 40% offensive rebounding percentage. Because of this, even though they aren't supreme shooters, Saint Mary's has the seventh-best field goal rate in the nation. They will get a lot of shots up on any given night.
Defensively, they are stout on the glass and allow no freebies with only 15% of opponents’ shots coming in transition. This will be tough for Gonzaga. Augustas Marciulionis is a great facilitating and scoring guard while Paulius Murauskas and Mitchell Saxen anchor the frontcourt.
When these two teams competed earlier this month, they only managed a combined 120 points. But there was a lot left on the table. Gonzaga went a measly 3-17 from deep, shooting 17%. Each squad combined to go 18-for-35 from the charity stripe (51%). That's insane. Especially with Gonzaga ranking sixth-best in free-throw shooting percentage.
Despite what was left last time, I'm seeing another under game. Both squads will limit the opponent on the offensive glass and the pace of Saint Mary's simply takes away shot opportunities on both sides.
The Gaels’ defense is quite underrated and neither team takes many perimeter shots. It might not be as low as 120 again, but these two coaches know each other so well they can defend anything thrown at them.
Prediction: Gonzaga 70, Saint Mary's 66
Best Bet: Under 142.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: