College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets & Predictions: Thursday & Friday (12/29 – 12/30)
Thor Nystrom provides his best bets for each 2022 Bowl Game on Thursday and Friday, December 29 and 30.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 28): 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%)
2022 combined: 99-73-4 ATS (57.6%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, NY | Thursday, December 29 | 1:00 PM
Minnesota (-10) vs. Syracuse | Total: 42
ATL: Minny -13.5 | ATT: 40
Syracuse
RB Sean Tucker (Opt-out)
FB Chris Elmore (Injury)
WR Courtney Jackson (Transfer portal)
WR Isaiah Jones (Injury)
WR Anthony Queeley (Transfer portal)
OT Matthew Bergeron (Opt-out)
DT Terry Lockett (Injury)
DE Steve Linton (Transfer portal)
EDGE Stefon Thompson (Injury)
CB Garrett Williams (Injury)
CB Darian Chestnut (Transfer portal)
S Ja’Had Carter (Transfer portal)
RB Tucker is an enormous loss. A second-team AP All-American in 2021, Tucker posted 3,804 scrimmage yards and 31 total TD during his career. He was a first-team All-ACC pick last year and a second-team All-ACC selection in 2022. An explosive back who could threaten the high-4.3s in the forty, Tucker is likely to be a Day 2 pick in the spring.
The offense suffered another big blow on Dec. 20 when starting LT Bergeron entered the 2023 NFL draft and announced he wouldn’t play in the Pinstripe Bowl. Lauded by scouts for his length, movement, and four-year-starter experience, Bergeron is the No. 5 tackle in Mel Kiper Jr.’s position rankings.
WR Jackson had 15 catches, and DE Linton posted six TFL this season, each in timeshares.
CB Williams was a standout starter until being lost for the season in Game 7 with a knee injury – he’s off to the NFL. CB Chestnut was the team’s best cover corner in the fall – he’s portal-bound.
CB Jeremiah Wilson entered the transfer portal but pulled out and returned – he’s likely to see the field plenty in the bowl due to the aforementioned losses. Unfortunately, starting S Carter has also moved on.
FB Elmore (16 snaps), WR Jones (69), WR Queeley (27), DT Lockett (92), and EDGE Thompson (22) didn’t factor in much this fall and are all out for the bowl. Elmore, a skilled fullback whose season was wrecked by health, declared for the draft.
Minnesota
QB Tanner Morgan (Injury)
WR Chris Autman-Bell (Injury)
DT Gage Keys (Transfer portal)
EDGE Austin Booker (Transfer portal)
LB Braelen Oliver (Transfer portal)
CB Jalen Glaze (Transfer portal)
S Michael Dixon (Transfer portal)
S Steven Ortiz (Transfer portal)
QB Morgan hasn’t played in over a month with what is suspected to be his second concussion of the season. HC PJ Fleck has not addressed his bowl status. If Morgan can’t go, QB2 Athan Kaliakmanis will draw his fourth-straight start and fifth of the season.
I’m told that Morgan has been an extremely limited participant in bowl practices but has not been ruled out internally. One idea that was forwarded to me is that Morgan could be given limited snaps in the game if he is able to go as a sort-of farewell in his last collegiate game.
LB Oliver and S Dixon were key contributors on defense. WR Autman-Bell was the Gophers’ best receiver prior to undergoing season-ending surgery in October – that development left Minnesota’s receiving corps decimated (the Gophers moved aggressively to address that in the portal over the past few weeks, signing two projected starting WRs).
DT Keys, EDGE Booker, CB Glaze, and S Ortiz were all reserves.
Coaching News
Syracuse OC Robert Anae left for the same job at NC State. Syracuse responded by elevating QB coach Jason Beck to OC. Beck will call plays in the bowl. Syracuse DC Tony White left for the same job at Nebraska.
Minnesota RB coach Kenni Burns left to become Kent State’s new head coach. Burns had also been Minnesota’s assistant HC since 2019. Burns first joined Fleck’s staff as RB coach at Western Michigan, so this is a MAC homecoming of sorts for him.
Handicap
Syracuse started 6-0, then lost five straight before beating Boston College in the finale. Since then, the Orange has been decimated by opt-outs.
RB Tucker and LT Bergeron’s defections hurt the most. Over the first six weeks of the season, Syracuse was dangerous because opposing defenses couldn’t stop the Orange’s up-tempo offense.
Without Tucker, the running game falls off the shelf. In the past few years, during instances when Syracuse’s running game hasn’t been working, the aerial attack disappears in kind. Minnesota, which boasts the No. 5 SP+ defense, shouldn’t have any problem shutting down a Tucker-less Syracuse offense.
Slowing down Minnesota’s offense is also pretty straightforward: You just need to stop the run. Easier said than done against Gophers RB Mo Ibrahim – but that’s the path. Unfortunately for Syracuse, the Orange’s run defense is rancid (No. 122 success rate).
Minnesota’s rushing offense ranks No. 24 in the same category and top-5 in both power success rate and stuff rate. Syracuse went 7-0 when it gave up less than 150 yards and 0-6 when it gave up more. The Gophers are going to run for more than 150 yards. Ibrahim has a decent shot to get there by himself.
Syracuse’s pass defense was way better than its run defense in the regular season, but that unit took a hit with defections. Minnesota may not even have to test it if Ibrahim is humming as expected.
While Syracuse struggled in the second half of the season, Minnesota closed the campaign by winning four of five, earning HC PJ Fleck an extension. Fleck is 3-0 career in bowl games. We think he improves that mark to 4-0 here, with Minnesota blowing out Syracuse.
The pick: Minnesota -10
Cheez-It Bowl
Orlando, FL |Thursday, December 29 | 4:30 PM
Florida State (-9.5) vs. Oklahoma | Total: 66
ATL: FSU -13.9 | ATT: 67
Oklahoma
QB Nick Evers (Transfer portal)
RB Eric Gray (Opt-out)
WR Theo Wease (Transfer portal)
WR Trevon West (Transfer portal)
TE Daniel Parker Jr. (Suspension)
OT Wanya Morris (Opt-out)
OT Anton Harrison (Opt-out)
DT Jalen Redmond (Opt-out)
LB Clayton Smith (Transfer portal)
LB Shane Whitter (Injury)
CB Joshua Eaton (Transfer portal)
CB Kendall Dennis (Transfer portal)
RB Gray was the Sooners’ bell-cow running back. He was one of the best backs in America this year. Gray’s 90.6 PFF grade was in elite territory. The platoon of RBs Jovantae Barnes and Marcus Major is a huge downgrade.
Speaking of huge downgrades, OT Harrison and OT Morris, the team’s starting tackles, are also out the door. Each was solidly an above-average Power 5 starter. Harrison was named to the All-Big 12 First-Team this season. It’s fair to be concerned about Oklahoma’s fill-in offensive line without the Sooners’ stellar bookend duo.
WR Wease had 19 catches. TE Parker Jr., a half-timer, is on an indefinite suspension. DT Redmond led the team in snaps among interior defensive linemen during the regular season – but he’s more a worker bee than a star.
LB Whittier, a little-used backup, is out for the season with a shoulder injury. CBs Eaton and Dennis also didn’t see the field much in the fall.
Florida State
WR Winston Wright Jr. (Injury)
WR Darion Williamson (Injury)
OT Lloyd Willis (Transfer portal)
DT Shambre Jackson (Transfer portal)
EDGE George Wilson Jr. (Transfer portal)
LB Stephen Dix Jr. (Injury)
CB Sam McCall (Transfer portal)
FSU QB Jordan Travis announced he will return next season. In addition to Travis, EDGE Jared Verse and S Jammie Robinson announced they would play in the bowl game. The upshot for the rest of the list: Very, very few useable pieces from the fall will be inactive for the bowl.
WR Wright Jr. missed the season with a leg injury suffered in a car accident. Wright will not play in this game, but he’s already announced he will return to school next year. WR Williamson was knocked out for the season in September. OT Willis was a little-used backup. LB Dix Jr. is out for the year with a shoulder injury. DT Jackson and EDGE Wilson Jr. scarcely saw the field.
WR Keyshawn Helton, LB Amari Gainer, and LB/S Sydney Williams – a trio of reserves – are all in the transfer portal but are still practicing with FSU and have said they intend to play. All played 80 or fewer snaps this fall.
Handicap
Heading into bowl season, Florida State was on my “buy†list, and Oklahoma was on my “sell†list. Not only did they get paired up against each other, but OU was hit significantly harder by opt-outs – and the market still hasn’t caught up to that.
The Seminoles’ No. 35 SP+ offense has a devastating ground attack that ranks No. 8 in success rate and No. 19 in explosion. If you can’t stop it, the Seminoles move the chains at will and open up one-on-one downfield shots (No. 12 passing explosiveness).
This is why FSU’s offense ranks top-10 in both efficiency and explosion. To beat FSU, you must make them one-dimensional by stopping the run.
Oklahoma cannot and will not. The Sooners’ run defense ranked No. 78 in success rate, Np. 75 in explosion and No. 98 in opportunity rate. Oklahoma’s pass defense is no great shakes, either.
FSU will destroy OU’s No. 66 SP+ defense, in other words. On the other side of the ball, without OU RB Gray, the Sooners, who had a balanced offense during the fall, will need to skew even pass-heavier.
Unfortunately, FSU has a really good pass defense. And the deep shots that OU QB Dillon Gabriel bailed the Sooners out with during the fall aren’t going to be there. While the Sooners rank No. 10 in passing explosion, FSU ranks No. 7 defensively in the same metric.
Seminoles in a route.
The pick: FSU -9.5
Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX | Thursday, December 29 | 8:00 PM
Texas (-3.5) vs. Washington | Total: 67.5
ATL: Pick ‘em | ATT: 63.5
Texas
QB Hudson Card (Transfer portal)
RB Bijan Robinson (Opt-out)
RB Roschon Johnson (Opt-out)
WR Troy Omeire (Transfer portal)
WR ​​Isaiah Neyor (Injury)
WR Jaden Alexis (Injury)
TE Jahleel Billingsley (Opt-out)
OG Logan Parr (Transfer portal)
OT Andrej Karic (Transfer portal)
EDGE DJ Harris (Transfer portal)
EDGE Prince Dorbah (Transfer portal)
EDGE Devin Richardson (Transfer portal)
LB DeMarvion Overshown (Opt-out)
CB Jamier Johnson (Transfer portal)
S JD Coffey III (Transfer portal)
Texas lost RBs Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson, and LB DeMarvion Overshown to NFL Draft opt-outs. With that, Texas goes from arguably the best running back room in America to a very inexperienced one. RB Robinson led the nation in yards from scrimmage with 1,894. He rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 TD in 2022.
This puts more pressure on QB Quinn Ewers to succeed through the air against Washington – fortunately, the Huskies’ secondary is terrible. Redshirt freshman RB Jonathon Brooks is expected to be RB1 against the Huskies. True freshman RB Jaydon Blue, a top-60 overall recruit, will likely mix in behind him.
WR Neyor was a celebrated transfer from Wyoming who was lost for the season in summer camp with a knee injury. WR Alexis, a backup, is also out for the season with a knee injury. WR Omeire didn’t see the field much. OG Parr and OT Karic were also backups.
LB Overshown logged 95 tackles and four sacks this fall. And for whatever it’s worth, his backups struggled when Overshown was suspended for the first half of the Texas Tech game for targeting.
It’s also worth noting that LB Overshown and RB Johnson were key special team pieces for the Longhorns, who have contributed on numerous units for years. Inexperienced backups on those units will replace both.
TE Billingsley is an odd opt-out and an odder NFL Draft early-declaree. Despite having two years of eligibility remaining and serving a six-game suspension to begin the season and as Ja’Tavion Sanders’ backup to conclude it, Billingsley forwent the opportunity to portal to a better opportunity. He only had three catches for 38 yards as a Longhorn.
This came after Billingsley fell out of favor with Alabama HC Nick Saban following 37 catches with the Ride. Texas’ other opt-outs really hurt… Billingsley, to be blunt, doesn’t matter. Sanders is the better in-game option, and Gunnar Helm and Juan Davis are fine off-the-bench options.
Texas is awaiting word on multiple other players still contemplating their futures. That group includes ILB Jaylan Ford, WR Jordan Whittington, DL Moro Ojomo, and DL Keondre Coburn. Per a report, those four are still practicing with the team.
Washington
WR Junior Alexander (Transfer portal)
TE Jack Westover (Injury)
DT Kuao Peihopa (Transfer portal)
S Cameron Williams (Transfer portal)
QB Michael Penix Jr. announced he will play in this game and return to school next year. Penix was emphatic about playing because he’s never played in a bowl.
That was telling. So was this: Washington’s roster has a grand total of zero opt-outs for this game.
TE Westover, a starter, is questionable with a concussion. It’s not a huge downgrade to TE Devin Culp – whom Westover split snaps with this fall – if Westover can’t go.
The three others listed above played limited snaps off the bench during the regular season.
Handicap
Very impressive Year 1 turnaround job by Washington HC Kalen DeBoer. He immediately remade a pitiful Huskies offense into a powerful aerial show.
Washington throws at one of the top-10 pass-happiest rates in all the nation, and the Huskies are very good at what they do, ranking No. 4 in passing success rate, No. 3 in passing efficiency, and No. 24 in completion rate.
Texas’ defense does not match up well. During the regular season, the Longhorns had a very strong run defense. But the pass defense never caught up. Texas’ pass defense ranks No. 72 in success rate, No. 66 in passing efficiency, and No. 99 in completion percentage against.
Washington profiles to do what it wants to do on offense. Texas’ opt-outs don’t help, there. But the Longhorns’ opt-outs on offense really hurt Texas’ chances here.
The formerly-powerful Texas running back room has been chopped considerably down to size. The Longhorns need QB Quinn Ewers to go ballistic through the air to win this game. That’s certainly possible against a UW pass defense that ranks a rancid No. 93 in success rate and No. 80 in explosion.
But Ewers was up and down during the regular season, and Texas won’t be able to afford many punts or turnovers with the points I’m expecting UW to put up. Texas’ passing offense is also more efficient (No. 24) than explosive (No. 64), meaning Ewers will have to put the ball in the air more to advance it, increasing the odds of an eventual turnover or two.
The motivated Huskies win this game outright.
The pick: Washington +3.5
Mayo Bowl
Charlotte, NC | Friday, December 30 | 11:00 AM
North Carolina State (-1) vs. Maryland | Total: 47
ATL: NC State -4.0 | ATT: 42
Maryland
QB Billy Edwards Jr. (Injury)
WR Dontay Demus Jr. (Opt-out)
WR Jacob Copeland (Opt-out)
WR Rakim Jarrett (Opt-out)
TE CJ Dippre (Transfer portal)
TE Weston Wolff (Transfer portal)
OG Ja’Khi Green (Transfer portal)
DT Zion Shockley (Transfer portal)
DT Austin Fontaine (Transfer portal)
EDGE Tyler Baylor (Transfer portal)
LB Ahmad McCullough (Transfer portal)
CB Deonte Banks (Opt-out)
S Isaiah Hazel (Transfer portal)
S Shane Mosley (Transfer portal)
QB1 Taulia Tagovailoa was nicked up in the campaign’s latter half but did in the regular season finale against Rutgers. He is expected to start. QB2 Edwards Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury.
Maryland’s awesome receiving corps was decimated by the opt-outs of star WRs Demus Jr., Jarrett, and Copeland. That group combined for 87 catches this season for 1,080 yards this fall. All are NFL talents.
Maryland still has one standout receiver who’ll be active for the bowl game in WR Jeshaun Jones. Outside of Jones, the Terps are very thin on the offensive perimeter. In addition to Jones, the Terps need TE Corey Dyches to step up.
Dyches platooned with TE Dippre this season but will get all the work in the bowl game. Dippre is getting a ton of attention in the portal, with Ohio State and Alabama, among others, fighting over him.
LB McCullough was Maryland’s fourth-leading tackler. CB Banks was an honorable mention all-Big 10 honoree in 2022. Both were obviously relied-upon, valued starters.
The Terps did get good news on that side of the ball when edge-rushing OLB Durell Nchami would play in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl before beginning draft preparations. Nchami is second on the team with six TFL.
OG Green, TE Wolff, DT Hazel, DT Fontaine, S Hazel, and S Mosley were all backups.
NC State
QB Devin Leary (Transfer portal)
QB M.J. Morris (Injury)
RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (Injury)
WR Devin Carter (Transfer portal)
WR Tyler Baker-Williams (Injury)
WR Jasiah Provillon (Transfer portal)
TE Trent Pennix (Injury)
OC Grant Gibson (Injury)
DT Joshua Harris (Transfer portal)
EDGE Claude Larkins (Transfer portal)
EDGE Savion Jackson (Injury)
CB Devan Boykin (Injury)
CB Joshua Pierre-Louis (Transfer portal)
QB Leary is recovering from a season-ending injury suffered in October, so his decision to hop into the portal doesn’t change the equation on the Wolfpack side. With QB2 Morris missing the last two games with a lower-body injury and NC State having soured on former backup Jack Chambers, QB4 Ben Finley took over for the last two games.
Morris’s status for the bowl is uncertain, but he’ll start if able. Finley didn’t look good in his first action against Boston College, but he turned it around in the finale against UNC, going 27-of-40 for 271 yards with two TD and no INT. Morris has returned to practice in advance of this game. But some in the media don’t believe he has a good chance to play. HC Dave Doeren has declined to name a starter for the bowl or address the situation further.
Starting OC Gibson will miss this game with an injury. So will DE Jackson, who was shut down for the campaign with a knee injury. Recent reports are optimistic that CB Boykin and WR Baker-Williams can return to the bowl from injury. News hasn’t been as optimistic about RB Sumo-Karngbaye or TE Pennix.
Starting WR Carter opted out to begin searching for his next school in the transfer portal. Limited to eight games in 2022 with injury, Carter caught 25 balls for 406 yards and two TD. He finished his career with 118 receptions, 1,906 yards, and 10 TD.
Portal defections WR Provillon, DT Harris, EDGE Larkins, and CB Pierre-Louis were reserves.
The Wolfpack have a few more rumored opt-outs, but as of this update on Dec. 18, all are expected to play. That list includes LB Drake Thomas, DL Cory Durden, LB Isaiah Moore, CB Tanner Ingle, iOL Chandler Zavala, and WR Thayer Thomas.
Coaching news
NC State OC Tim Beck left to take Coastal Carolina’s HC gig. NC State HC Doeren announced offensive play-calling would be a “collective effort†in the bowl between QB coach Kurt Roper, WR coach Joker Phillips, and TE coach Todd Goebbel.
Handicap
When Maryland was at full strength this fall, they were extremely frisky – the Terps went 7-5 against the No. 27 SP+ strength of schedule and played Michigan and Ohio State tougher than anyone.
Unfortunately, Maryland won’t be at full strength for the bowl. The opt-outs of the three-star receivers and TE Dippre really hurts this pass-happy team that thrived on YAC yardage. And the Terps’ defense, which took a step forward this season, will be without two valued starters.
NC State’s No. 13 SP+ defense is the best unit either team will bring to the field (omitting special teams – each has a top-10 national special teams, essentially washing itself out in the handicap). That Wolfpack defense, which should be more or less intact, isn’t likely to have many issues with Maryland’s light-on-weapons passing attack.
If that’s the case, the Wolfpack will only need to manage so much offense on the other side to win the game. And NC State should be able to manage that, chipping away with the run game, swing-outs to the running backs, and manufacturing completions with easy reads for whichever young quarterback is starting.
NC State is way more comfortable in the sort of game I project this to be. The Wolfpack went 4-1 in games decided by three points or less this fall, while Maryland went 0-1. NCSU HC Dave Doeren is a career 5-2 ATS in bowl games. We think he bags another postseason win.
The pick: NC State -1.5
Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX | Friday, December 30 | 1:00 PM
UCLA (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh | Total: 54.5
ATL: UCLA -16.1 | ATT: 60
Pittsburgh
QB Kedon Slovis (Transfer portal)
QB Nick Patti (Injury)
QB Nate Yarnell (Illness)
RB Izzy Abanikanda (Opt-out)
WR Jaylon Barden (Transfer portal)
WR Jaden Bradley (Transfer portal)
WR Jared Wayne (?)
OT Gabe Houy (Opt-out)
OT Carter Warren (Opt-out/Injury)
DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
EDGE John Morgan III (Transfer portal)
EDGE Nate Temple (Injury)
EDGE Sam Williams (Transfer portal)
EDGE Deslin Alexandre (Opt-out)
EDGE Habakkuk Baldonado (Injury)
LB SirVocea Dennis (Opt-out)
S Brandon Hill (Opt-out)
S Judson Tallandier II (Transfer portal)
QB1 Slovis is looking for a new home in the transfer portal. QB2 Patti, hampered by a leg injury for most of the campaign, is the leader in the clubhouse to make the start based on the team’s most-recent bowl practices.
HC Pat Narduzzi recently told the media that Patti and QB3 Nate Yarnell have been going head-to-head in practices to determine the bowl starter. But Yarnell, who did not attempt a pass this season, has been under the weather with an unspecified illness, allowing Patti to seize the early lead in the open competition. Over his four-year career, Patti is 51-for-87 for 558 yards and a 4/1 TD/INT rate.
Pitt skewed more towards the run this fall thanks to the breakout of RB Abanikanda, a first-team All-ACC selection. But Abanikanda, who led the ACC in rushing with 1,431 yards, has also opted out. The only silver lining here is that Pitt’s RB room was arguably the deepest on the team: RBs Rodney Hammond Jr., C’Bo Flemister, and Vincent Davis aren’t as talented as Abanikanda, but they’ll make up a solid three-headed monster in the bowl.
Unfortunately, the offensive line they’ll be running behind took a shot when OTs Houy and Warren opted out (Warren may not have been able to play due to injury anyway). Warren began the year as the starting LT. When he got hurt in Week 4, Houy entered the lineup at RT, with Matt Goncalves shifting to LT. We know Pitt will be down to OT4 at right tackle (Branson Taylor?).
Currently, it does appear that Pitt’s interior offensive line will be intact for the bowl. Starting senior LG Marcus Minor confirmed he would play in the game. He’ll be joined by C1 Jake Kradel and RG Blake Zubovic in the starting lineup to his right, with C2 Owen Drexel the interior insurance policy (Kradel shifts to guard when Drexel enters the game).
WRs Barden and Bradley each played off the bench, but their losses are more depth-related. WR Wayne has made no announcement, but it felt a bit ominous when Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi declined to comment on his bowl status when asked by the media. Wayne was the offense’s second-best player behind Abanikanda this fall.
Pitt’s defense lost even more talent to defections than its offense.
DT Kancey, an All-American, had been out with a shoulder injury. He decided to shut it out to begin NFL Draft preparations. Kancey is an elite defender who posted a 91.5 PFF grade this fall.
DE Morgan got big interest in the portal immediately after entering – he’s expected to garner a six-figure NIL package. Morgan’s Pitt career ended with 14.5 sacks. He posted a 77.5 PFF grade in the fall.
DE Alexandre, who posted 8.5 hurries and 5.5 sacks this fall, opted out to begin draft prep, as did starting ILB Dennis, a first-team all-ACC selection. Dennis previously was relied on to make Pitt’s pre-snap calls on defense.
With cluster defections along the defensive EDGE, Pitt could really use DE Baldonado. But Baldonado missed the past few games of the regular season and has accepted an invite to the Shrine Game – his status for this game is unknown.
SS Hill is another starter who opted out to declare for the NFL Draft. Hill was more of a workmanlike solid starter. The only good news on defense is that starting nickel Erick Hallett II – who declared for the draft – announced he would play in this game.
This is a metric ton of vacated talent and production lost. Not only is Pitt out a small handful of starters on both sides of the ball, but it will also be playing without all four of its captains (Slovis, Warren, Alexandre, Dennis).
UCLA
QB Chase Artopoeus (Transfer portal)
DT Martin Andrus Jr. (Injury)
DT Hayden Harris (Transfer portal)
CB Kobey Fitzgerald (Transfer portal)
DT Andrus Jr., a valued rotational piece on the defensive line, was lost for the season in September to a leg injury. The others listed above were scantily-used.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, RB Zach Charbonnet, and WR Jake Bobo are all status checks on the Bruins’ side. That trio has all been practicing in advance of this bowl game. None have officially stated one way or the other whether they will play as of this update on Dec. 22.
On that day, Dec. 22, I asked a source close to the situation to peg the odds of those three playing. The response I got?: 75% for DTR, 10% for Charbonnet, and 100% for Bobo. This source told me that he believes Thompson-Robinson and Bobo will ultimately decide to play but guessed that Charbonnet would ultimately decide against it. To repeat: This was one informed source’s estimation of the current situation as of early-afternoon Dec. 22.
I should add another thing: My adjusted line above covers all “official†opt-out information listed above — those have been accounted for. It does not include modifications for the guys who haven’t announced yet.
If or when UCLA has opt-outs – and/or if Pitt has any additional ones – my adjusted line will shift. But I’ll add this: It would take more than the opt-outs of DTR, Charbonnet, and Bobo for my adjusted line to get down to what sportsbooks are currently offering on the Bruins.
Coaching news
UCLA DC ​​Bill McGovern has missed five-straight games with a health issue.
Handicap
I’m in a Twitter DM thread with a bunch of professional bettors and writers that handicap. We share information and takes on games. On Dec. 22, when this spread had dropped all the way to UCLA -3.5, I wrote the following in that thread:
“The line move down to UCLA -3.5 makes zero sense. Only line on the bowl slate I can’t make heads or tails of. UCLA isn’t officially out anyone of substance yet that I know of. Pitt is already officially out a large percentage of their best players … If UCLA doesn’t have any opt-outs, this line, objectively, should be around UCLA -17. I’m just wondering what I’m missing here. it would take more than DTR/Charb/Bobo all opting out to have the reality of this situation match the line that is available. So I’m just scratching my head… do some huge hitters out there have information that literally nobody else does, or is the market just this badly off/uninformed about this one game?â€
As you can probably tell by the tone of the above, I laid the lumber on UCLA -3.5 that day – after hearing back from a source near the UCLA program that gave me the above information regarding the Bruins’ opt-out picture.
As of publication time, none of those UCLA players have opted out, and this line is up to UCLA -5.5. If there are still no opt-outs by kickoff, I would expect it to be UCLA -7 or higher. And I would still bet on the Bruins.
If both of these teams had been full-strength for this game, my line would have been UCLA -4.2. But they aren’t. Not even close. Pittsburgh’s roster has been severely decimated. Numerous position groups will be starting backups or third-stringers.
Meanwhile, UCLA appears to be still at full strength. And if that’s the case, it’s because veterans like QB Thompson and RB Charbonnet want to go out with a bang. I think they will. Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi, who is only 1-4 ATS career in bowls, doesn’t have the personnel to be viable here.
Bruins in a rout.
The pick: UCLA -5.5
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL | Friday, December 30 | 2:30 PM
Notre Dame (-2) vs. South Carolina | Total: 51.5
ATL: Pick ‘em | ATT: 52
Notre Dame
QB Drew Pyne (Transfer portal)
QB Tyler Buchner (Injury)
WR Avery Davis (Injury)
WR Tobias Merriweather (Injury)
WR Joe Wilkins Jr. (Transfer portal)
TE Michael Mayer (Opt-out)
TE Kevin Bauman (Injury)
TE Eli Raridon (Injury)
TE Cane Berrong (Transfer portal)
DT Jacob Lacey (Transfer portal)
EDGE Isaiah Foskey (Opt-out)
EDGE Ositadinma Ekwonu (Transfer portal)
DB Jayden Bellamy (Transfer portal)
CB Cam Hart (Injury)
TE Mayer and EDGE Foskey are huge, huge losses. Mayer was a matchup nightmare who will go in Round 1 in the spring. Despite consistently drawing double- or even triple-teams this fall, Mayer posted a 67-809-9 receiving line as the only Irish receiving weapon that scared opponents.
Foskey was easily the team’s best pass-rusher with 12 sacks. It was his second-straight season with 11-or-more. DT Lacey had two sacks and five tackles against Cal, but he announced his intention to transfer in October – he ultimately signed with Oklahoma.
QB Pyne’s defection – for Arizona State – seemingly left the Irish with an uncertain quarterback situation. But, lo and behold, Week 1 starter QB Tyler Buchner is going to start this game, per HC Marcus Freeman,
Buchner was thought to have suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in September. But Buchner returned to practice earlier this month and is ready to go. QB3 Steve Angeli will back him up.
WR Davis, a projected starter, was lost for the season before it began with a knee injury. With a concussion, WR Merriweather, who played 68 snaps in the fall, is questionable. TEs Raridon and Bauman were both lost for the season with injuries early-on, and TE Berrong has transferred. All three were backups but could have seen more time in the bowl game with Mayer’s defection.
CB Hart was one of the Irish’s two starting outside corners. He has been ruled out for this game with a shoulder injury suffered against Boston College. Though he won’t play in the bowl, Hart said he will return to school next fall.
The Irish have a strong starter on the other side in CB Benjamin Morrison, and also a solid starting nickel CB in TaRiq Bracy. Technically, the top outside-corner backup is Jaden Mickey. Mickey started for Hart against USC and got lit up. Per PFF, Mickey has allowed receptions on 12 of 15 targets this season for an average of 20.3 YPR.
CB Clarence Lewis has been the better player in 2022 – and far better in coverage – but the staff has used Lewis as a rotational fill-in interchangeably in the slot and on the outside as needed. If it were me, I would start CB Lewis on the outside in this game, with CB Mickey coming off the bench to spell the outside corners.
If nickel CB Bracy got hurt, I would shift Lewis inside and bring in Mickey to finish the game at the outside spot he was shifting in from. But at least as of the USC game, this didn’t seem to be the prerogative of the staff. If Mickey is starting again, I’m hunting the props on the South Carolina receiver projected to line up across from him.
South Carolina
RB Marshawn Lloyd (Transfer Portal)
RB Christian Beal-Smith (Injury)
RB Lovasea Carroll (Injury)
WR Josh Vann (Injury)
WR Corey Rucker (Transfer portal)
WR Jalen Brooks (Unknown)
TE Jaheim Bell (Transfer portal)
TE Austin Stogner (Transfer portal)
TE Traevon Kenion (Retirement)
TE/WR Chad Terrell (Injury)
OT Dylan Wonnum (Opt-out)
DT Zacch Pickens (Opt-out)
EDGE Terrell Dawkins (Injury)
EDGE Gilber Edmond (Transfer portal)
LB Mohamed Kaba (Injury)
CB Cam Smith (Opt-out)
CB Darius Rush (Opt-out/Injury)
CB Joey Hunter (Transfer portal)
S R.J. Roderick (Transfer portal)
S David Spaulding (Injury)
S Tyrese Ross (Transfer portal)
S Devonni Reed (Opt-out)
QB Spencer Rattler, coming off two sensational showings, announced that he will play. That’s the good news. The bad news is South Carolina got hit with the defections of numerous key contributors at other positions.
RB1 Lloyd is an NFL talent looking for a new home. RB2 Beal-Smith was limited in practices as of mid-December, with his right foot heavily taped. I’ve also been told that Beal-Smith has been moving around campus in a walking boot. Beal-Smith’s presence at practice suggests he’s hoping to play. But as of mid-December, he’s clearly nowhere near 100 percent. Backup RB Carroll has been ruled out with an undisclosed injury.
The Gamecocks had an embarrassment of riches with receiving tight ends this fall. Still, no longer after both TE Bell and TE Stogner entered the portal – they’re headed to Florida State and back to Oklahoma, respectively. Backup TE Kenion was expected to take heavy snaps in the bowl game in their stead – but Kenion announced his retirement from the game in the days that followed.
Keep in mind that TE/WR Terrell was lost before the season to a torn ACL. The Gamecocks are so far down on the depth chart at that position at this point that it’s going to require playbook alterations. Here’s what HC Shane Beamer said about that: “There’s four tight ends that played in the Clemson game, and three of them aren’t here right now. So to say that we’re going to be able to do two-tight end sets is fairly irresponsible to say,†Beamer said. “And to think that we’re going to be able to play Nate Adkins every single play of the game. We really don’t have a second tight end.â€
So that would mean more receivers on the field. Of course, the Gamecocks have questions about that position, too.
WR Vann was ruled out in the week lead-up to the game with the knee sprain he suffered in the regular season finale against Clemson. HC Beamer said WR Brooks is dealing with an “off-the-field issue†but is practicing and will travel to the bowl game – Beamer added that Brooks’ availability for the game has not yet been decided. WR Rucker is out the door via transfer.
Starting RT Wonnum is off to the NFL and won’t play. Wonnum started 40 of 42 career games with the Gamecocks.
EDGE Edmond was another starter, though PFF graded his 2022 work a poor 59.4. DT Pickens declared for the draft and opted out. Pickens, likely a mid-rounder, started all 12 games and posted 42 tackles, four TFLs, and 2.5 sacks. EDGE Dawkins and LB Kaba, both little-used backups, are likely out with injuries.
In April, CB Smith was one of the nation’s top cover corners and a first-round candidate. He opted out to begin his pre-draft preparation after declaring for the NFL Draft. Smith had 11 passes defended last season.
Smith’s partner on the opposite boundary, CB Rush, followed suit by declaring for the draft on Dec. 15. Rush had an additional reason to opt out – he’s been mending from a hamstring injury.
S Reed, who started his only season after coming over as a graduate transfer from Central Michigan, won’t play after declaring for the draft. The 5-foot-11, 200-pounder had 39 tackles during the regular season.
That makes three secondary starters out for South Carolina. Two regular starting defensive backs will play: Marcellus Dial and Nick Emmanwori. DQ Smith, who started several times in the fall due to injuries, is going to draw another as well.
South Carolina did get good news with the NCAA’s blanket-waiver announcement for bowl games. That means QB2 Luke Doty and S Spaulding – who began the year as the starting nickel – can play in this game while still using a redshirt for this season. Each had appeared in four games during the regular season. Spaulding has been out for the last two months due to a foot injury, but the program thinks he has a shot to return for the bowl.
Coaching news
South Carolina OC Marcus Satterfield left for Nebraska. Gamecocks HC Shane Beamer said he will not announce an offensive play-caller for the bowl prior to the game.
Handicap
This is another “opt-out†bowl where it’s difficult to make heads or tails of which version of each team we’ll see.
Notre Dame had an efficient-but-unsexy passing offense during the fall, mostly because nobody could stop TE Mayer. With Mayer and QB Pyne out the door and dual-threat QB Buchner starting, the Irish will lean heavily into the run game.
The Irish’s three-headed RB platoon is intact – thunder back Audric Estime, lightning back Chris Tyree, and jitterbug Logan Diggs – as is the offensive line. Buchner probably is a downgrade from Pyne as a thrower at the moment, but he’s definitely an upgrade as a runner.
The big issue for South Carolina is that their run defense was rancid even while at full strength in the fall, ranking No. 126 in success rate and No. 129 in stuff rate. Notre Dame’s run offense finished No. 22 and No. 4 in those categories, respectively.
And South Carolina’s defense decidedly is not at full strength. Notre Dame should run all over the Gamecocks.
Conversely, South Carolina has enormous issues at RB, WR, and TE. The good news is QB Spencer Rattler will play. Rattler led the Gamecocks to consecutive outright upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson as 14-point-or-more underdogs. But can he keep the good times rolling, working with a bunch of backups?
ND’s defensive weakness is against the run. But the Gamecocks aren’t likely heading into this game wanting to run much anyway as far as they’ll be down the depth chart at that position. So that’ll come down to whether Rattler can negate everything going against SC to propel the Gamecocks to a win.
My system says it’s possible, pegging this game a pick ‘em. But despite that, and despite being bullish on South Carolina’s end-of-season surge, and despite acknowledging that South Carolina upset UNC in last year’s bowl while similar early appearing to be out-gunned heading in, I’m going to side with Notre Dame so long as the line is under a field goal.
The pick: Notre Dame -2
Arizona Bowl
Tucson, AZ | Friday, December 30 | 3:30 PM
Ohio (-1.5) vs. Wyoming | Total: 42.5
ATL: Ohio -0.1 | ATT: 40
Ohio
QB Kurtis Rourke (Injury)
RB O’Shaan Allison (Injury)
QB Rourke, PFF’s highest-graded quarterback this season (92.0) and the MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is out for the year after suffering a torn ACL and meniscus on Nov. 15 against Ball State.
QB2 CJ Harris, who started the last two games, posting a 59.0 PFF grade in six appearances total, will draw another start. This is obviously a massive downgrade.
RB Allison was expected to assume a much larger role in 2022, but he was lost for the season right before it began with a shoulder injury.
Wyoming
RB Titus Swen (Opt-out/Dismissed)
RB Joey Braasch (Transfer portal)
RB Dawaiian McNeely (Injury)
RB D.Q. James (Injury)
WR Joshua Cobbs (Transfer portal)
DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho (Transfer portal)
CB Keonte Glinton (Transfer portal)
CB Cam Stone (Transfer portal)
The run-first Cowboys are in a pickle at the running back position. RB1 Swen is the biggest loss. He ran for 1,039 yards and eight TD this fall. He was dismissed from the team right after the finale against Fresno State. Swen originally entered the portal but reversed-course and said he would declare for the NFL Draft.
But not only is the bell-cow runner out for this game but so are his top-three backups. RB Braasch transferred, and RB McNeely and RB James are expected to miss the game with injuries.
WR Cobbs was the team’s leading receiver, DE Omotosho was No. 3 in sacks, and CB Stone led the team in interceptions. CB Glinton was a starter before being lost to an injury earlier this season. He’s now moving on in the portal.
Handicap
As far as the side handicap, let me put it this way: It was my least-confident game in the confidence pools before the bowls started, and my feelings haven’t changed any.
With Ohio, you have a team that plays bad defense (No. 95 SP+) and bad special teams (No. 102 SP+) that was able to overcome that and any talent deficiencies on offense through the play of star QB Kurtis Rourke (No. 61 SP+ offense). But Rourke is now out for the season.
With Wyoming, you have a toothless run-first offense (No. 123 SP+) that played solid defense (No. 62 SP+) and special teams (No. 48 SP+). But the Cowboys – who have a top-15 national run rate – are down to their fifth-string running back, and they’re also out their top WR. And that solid defense? It’ll be missing its best pass-rusher and both starting corners.
My system calls this game a pick ‘em. The market is close to that. I ever-so-slightly lean Wyoming but can’t make my way to backing them. The far cleaner handicap here is on the under.
Wyoming’s defense lost three crucial pass-defense pieces – but its run defense remains more-or-less intact, and that’s good news because while Ohio QB2 CJ Harris can’t throw, he can run a bit.
Meanwhile, Wyoming’s horrible offense is somehow going to be by degrees worse in this bowl. The Cowboys still need to run – especially with WR Cobbs out – but they have precious few bodies left in the RB room and no tangible game experience.
Wyoming HC Craig Bohl is a master game planner, part of the reason he is 11-3 ATS career in bowls. He knows the Cowboys’ path to winning this game is turning it into a rock fight and winning an ugly, low-scoring game.
The Cowboys know how to do that, with five-straight games going under to conclude the regular season. As for Ohio, the Bobcats scored only seven points in the MAC title game against Toledo with Rourke out. If Wyoming’s defense remains solid without the three departed starters, the Bobcats will flub around with the ball here, too.
The pick: Under 42.5
Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, FL | Friday, December 30 | 7:00 PM
Clemson (-5) vs. Tennessee | Total: 63.5
ATL: Clemson -7.5 | ATT: 70
Tennessee
QB Hendon Hooker (Injury)
WR Jalin Hyatt (Opt-out)
WR Cedric Tillman (Opt-out)
WR Jimmy Calloway (Transfer portal)
WR Jimmy Holiday (Transfer portal)
TE Miles Campbell (Transfer portal)
DT Jordan Phillips (Transfer portal)
LB Jeremy Banks (Opt-out)
CB Warren Burrell (Injury)
QB1 Hooker is out for the year with a torn ACL. QB2 Joe Milton went 11-of-21 for 147 passing yards in the finale against Vanderbilt. Milton flamed out at Michigan and lost his starting job at Tennessee to Hooker almost immediately after winning it out of camp. Milton is a physically gifted quarterback who lacks accuracy and has the propensity to make wonky decisions.
WR Hyatt and Tillman declared for the NFL Draft in mid-December and opted out of the bowl game. Tillman had 64 receptions for 1,081 yards and 12 TD last year and then 15 catches for 230 receiving yards and a TD in Tennessee’s first two games this season. But Tillman suffered an ankle injury the following week and missed a month-and-a-half of game action. He played in three games at the end of the regular season.
With Tillman on the shelf, WR Hyatt became one of the nation’s most dangerous slot receivers. Hyatt posted a 67-1267-15 and broke the single-season Tennessee record for TD catches. He’s a top-50 possibility in the spring.
LB Banks, a two-year starter, declared for the draft and opted out. He was Tennessee’s best blitzing linebacker. In 11 games this fall, he posted 53 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and eight hurries. CB Burrell was a Week 1 starter but was lost for the season in September with an upper-body injury.
Stud OT Darnell Wright and starting DE Byron Young declared for the NFL Draft, but each said they will play in this game.
Clemson
QB DJ Uiagalelei (Transfer portal)
RB Kobe Pace (Transfer portal)
WR Beaux Collins (Injury)
WR Decari Collins (Transfer portal)
WR EJ Williams (Transfer portal)
EDGE Myles Murphy (Opt-out)
EDGE Xavier Thomas (Injury)
EDGE Justin Foster (Unknown)
EDGE Kevin Swint (Transfer portal)
LB Sergio Allen (Transfer portal)
LB Vonta Bentley (Transfer portal)
LB Trenton Simpson (Opt-out)
CB Malcolm Greene (Injury)
CB Fred Davis II (Transfer portal)
The Cole Klubnik kicks off officially in the bowl game. Klubnik relieved a struggling Uiagalelei in the ACC title game against UNC and led Clemson to the win. This spurred DJU’s transfer decision. Clemson is the only team I upgraded in power rankings due to a quarterback change for the bowl – Klubnik is better and probably has been since the day he stepped on campus. QB Hunter Johnson is now listed as Klubnik’s backup.
RB Pace was third on the depth chart prior to entering the transfer portal. Clemson now lists RB Domonique Thomas RB3 behind Will Shipley and Phil Mafah. WR Beaux Collins recently underwent surgery and is done for the season. The Tigers’ receiving room has taken a hit along with the defections of WRs Decari Collins and EJ Williams. In bowl practices, Joseph Ngata, Adam Randall, and Antonio Williams have been working as the starters. WRs Brannon Spector and Cole Turner will rotate in behind them. Clemson doesn’t have much behind those five.
DE Murphy and LB Simpson opted out and declared for the NFL Draft in mid-December. Murphy is ranked by ESPN’s Matt Miller as the No. 5 overall player in the draft. Murphy, a first-team All-ACC honoree in 2022, posted 36 TFL and 18.5 sacks over three years.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. ranks LB Simpson as the No. 3 inside linebacker in the upcoming draft. The 6-foot-3, 225-pounder is expected to run a 4.4 forty and reach 40 inches in the vertical. Last year, as a sophomore, Simpson posted 12.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks. This year, Simpson led the ACC in competition percentage against (18.8%) in coverage and also pressure rate (14%).
The good news for Clemson? DT Bryan Bresee, DE K.J. Henry, DE Justin Mascoll, and DT Tyler Davis are all practicing and have said they plan to play in the bowl game. But with DE Thomas out for the year with a foot injury and DE Foster with an unknown ailment, Clemson is thin at DE behind Henry and Mascoll.
EDGE Swint, LB Allen, LB Bentley, CB Greene, and CB Davis were all backups. Greene was knocked out for the season last month with a groin injury.
Coaching news
Tennessee OC/TE coach Alex Golesh left to become South Florida’s new HC. Vols HC Josh Heupel will likely call plays in the bowl.
Handicap
Clemson has more opting-out, and two may go in the first round in April. But make no mistake: Tennessee is far more compromised heading into this game.
The Vols lost a potential Heisman finalist when QB Hooker was lost for the season, the Biletnikoff Award winner in WR Hyatt, a potential Round 1 WR talent in Cedric Tillman, and two defensive starters.
The Vols’ offense, six weeks ago was one of the most dangerous in America, is now merely solid. Nothing special. And now it’s going up against a top-25 SP+ defense.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s offense has actually been upgraded since the end of the season. Because not only did it not lose an important piece, but it has made an enormous upgrade at quarterback, going from Uiagalelei to Klubnik.
It’s criminal that HC Dabo Swinney did not make that change earlier in the season. Klubnik came off the bench in the ACC title game – with UNC leading 7-0 – to go 20-for-24 for 279 yards and a TD with a second rushing TD to lead Clemson to a 39-10 blowout win.
This is a problem for the Vols. Because while the Vols have a very strong run defense, Tennessee’s pass defense is an abomination (No. 105 success rate, No. 119 efficiency). Klubnik is going to carve up that soft secondary.
The Klubnik Era kicks off with a bang – a double-digit win over the Vols, setting the stage for Clemson’s 2023 CFP run.
The pick: Clemson -5
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