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College Football: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Duke Blue Devils Sports Betting Guide

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This year’s Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Game features what looks to be a very lopsided matchup on paper. After last year’s poor showing in the National Championship game, the No. 2 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide begin their season with a neutral site contest against the Duke Blue Devils who have to adjust to life without Daniel Jones.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The Crimson Tide opened as 30 point favorites, which has jumped all the way to 35, while the over/under opened at 62.5 and has sunk all the way to 57.5.
  • Current Line: Alabama -35
  • O/U: 57.5
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
  • Start Time: 3:30 pm ET
  • Television: ABC
  • Last Meeting: September 18, 2010 – Alabama defeated Duke 62-13 in Durham

Overview

Heisman runner-up Tua Tagovailoa is back for the Alabama Crimson Tide after a disappointing finale to the 2018 season. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos is gone, and Steve Sarkisian is in to take over the playcalling duties for Tua and his fantastic receiving corps of Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, and Henry Ruggs III. But Sarkisian isn’t the only new coach Alabama has added to their staff. In all, they brought in seven new coaches for the 2019 season, including three on the defensive end, which should only help to improve an already stellar unit led by corners Xavier McKinney and Jared Mayden, and middle linebacker Dylan Moses.

While Alabama is returning their stud quarterback, Duke is going to have to adjust to life without Daniel Jones, who was drafted 6th overall by the Giants in April. Quentin Harris will take over, after seeing a bit of action in 2018 when Jones was out with a shoulder injury. Harris played well in his only two starts throwing six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He was also able to add 117 yards on the ground in those games. These are great numbers, however, his two starts came against North Carolina Central and Baylor, and on the season Harris only completed 50% of his passes.

While Duke’s offense will be undergoing a transition, the defense returns eight starters including key players such as Mark Gilbert and Dylan Singleton. However, while there will be consistency on the defensive end, the unit didn’t put up great numbers last year, allowing 408.8 yards per game and 27.4 points.

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Trends

  • Alabama is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games.
  • Duke is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Week 1 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games for Alabama.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the last six games for Duke.
  • Alabama ended last season in disappointing fashion with a 44-16 loss to Clemson in the National Championship game.
  • In Alabama’s last four season openers, the Crimson Tide have dominated, defeating Louisville 51-14, Florida State 24-7, USC 52-6, and Wisconsin 35-17, all in neutral-site contests.
  • Duke ended last season by defeating Temple 56-27 in the Independence Bowl. Prior to that game, Duke lost their final two regular-season games 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 to Wake Forest.

Bottom Line

Daniel Jones is gone, and while Quentin Harris did alright replacing him last season, it’s not going to be easy for the Senior to transition into the leader role against a powerhouse like Alabama. One thing to keep in mind is that last year Alabama was blown out by Clemson, an ACC opponent. Beginning their season against another ACC opponent, I believe they’re out for some form of revenge and will look to embarrass the Blue Devils to silence any possible doubters.

Alabama has a way of coming into games and starting off with a huge lead before resting players and making bettor’s hearts flutter. But with so many new coaches, I expect Saban to let them get their feet wet, and I don’t see him calling off the dogs as early as he normally does in lopsided affairs.

I don’t think Duke ever scores more than 17 points in this game, and Alabama’s offense should be able to score a touchdown every time their starters lead a drive. I like Alabama to cover easily, and if the over/under keeps dropping, I like the over a lot, too.

Final score prediction: Alabama 56 – Duke 10

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.