College Football Best Bets: 2025 Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl (Cal vs. Hawai’i)

Wednesday’s standalone bowl game, the 2025 Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl, sends the Cal Golden Bears to take on the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors on Christmas Eve. Oddsmakers expect a competitive matchup, with the Rainbow Warriors laying -1.5 as a home favorite. The point total is 51.5.

55 percent of the money is coming in on Hawai’i -1.5, while 63 percent of wagers are on Cal +1.5. Both programs are 8-4 on point total Unders in 2025. Neither program has won consecutive games since the start of November, so expect plenty of entertainment value when this bowl game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET from Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu.

I’ve found a couple of best bets to tail ahead of Wednesday night’s opening kickoff at the 2025 Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for more betting analysis and free picks throughout this 2025 bowl season and College Football Playoff.

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2025 Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Under 51.5 Points (-115)

Since opening, the line has moved from Hawai’i +1.5 to -1.5. The point total has dropped considerably from 54.5 to 51.5. Hawai’i has held three of its previous five Mountain West opponents under 20 points, with exceptions against San Jose State and UNLV.

Cal has only allowed three touchdown passes in its last four games combined. However, the Golden Bears’ run defense is porous, surrendering multiple rushing touchdowns and at least 4.3 YPC in five straight outings.

Hawai’i has had difficulty establishing the run in 2025. They will be able to move the football on the ground more effectively than through explosive passing, which means we’re going to get longer drives, melting game clock.

Cal’s offense has been pass-centric. The Golden Bears are averaging a meager 2.6 YPC, forcing the passing attack to put up over 250 yards against five straight opponents.

Hawai’i’s defense is stingy against the pass, which bodes well for under 51.5 total points. The Rainbow Warriors have held all opposing quarterbacks to a 58 percent completion rate average, while forcing six turnovers across their previous three starts.

Let’s bet Under 51.5 for our first wager in the 2025 Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl between Cal and Hawai’i.

Hawai’i Moneyline (-118)

This is a home game for Hawai’i and its fanbase. Yes, Cal played in the ACC against Power 4 opponents this season, while the Rainbow Warriors faced Mountain West programs a tier lower in talent.

Hawai’i redshirt freshman QB Micah Alejado has been highly productive as QB1 this season. Under head coach Timmy Chang, Alejado has elevated the passing attack for the Rainbow Warriors. He’s thrown for at least two touchdowns and 250 passing yards in four of his previous five starts, with only UNLV managing to keep his production tapered.

Cal will challenge Alejado at times with its secondary play. However, his running backs, Landon Sims and Cam Barfield, are averaging 4.6 YPC and 4.8 YPC respectively. These two will be able to set-up play-action passes downfield, where Alejado is likely to connect with top target, WR Jackson Harris.

In a home game against a team that struggles to establish the run and defend it, let’s back Hawai’i as a marginal favorite against a Power 4 program like Cal.

Hawai’i 1st Quarter -1.5 (+134)

Let’s double down on our Hawai’i moneyline wager and back the Rainbow Warriors to cover -1.5 in the first quarter point spread market. Hawai’i has covered -1.5 in the first quarter in two of its last three home games.

Cal has failed to cover +1.5 in the first quarter in three of its last five matchups. The Golden Bears are a one-dimensional offense that will have a tough time advancing the football through the air, especially during its first couple of drives.

Alejado and the rest of Hawai’i’s offense should find a rhythm in a comfortable, familiar setting to start the game. Cal’s porous run defense will allow the Rainbow Warriors to finally get their run game trending upward, controlling time of possession and finishing with at least one score in the opening quarter.

At plus odds, we’ll grab some early action and bet Hawai’i 1st Quarter -1.5 against Cal.