College Football Betting: 2020 Big 12 Preview

It is going to be a different kind of season in the Big 12 in one particular way: Texas has the better-known and more developed quarterback than Oklahoma. That really hasn’t been true the past four seasons, but it is true this year. Notice the specific wording, however: “better-developed.” That is not the same as “better,” but Texas will indeed need to be better at the quarterback spot in order to dislodge Oklahoma from its position of Big 12 power. More on the league below:

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Team That Will Surprise: TCU Horned Frogs

Odds To Win Big 12: +1600 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The TCU Horned Frogs were hard to watch last season. They played a lot of ugly, low-scoring games. They failed to make a bowl game after finishing with a losing record of 5-7. Why would this be a team ready to make a big leap in 2020? First of all, the 2013 TCU team finished 4-8 and looked as bad as the 2019 team did. The 2014 TCU team lost only one game all season and narrowly missed the College Football Playoff. It hammered Ole Miss in a New Year’s Six bowl game at the Peach Bowl. It finished No. 3 in the final rankings after the bowls, just behind the two teams which played for the 2014 national championship, Ohio State and Oregon. There is precedent for TCU to go from the outhouse to the penthouse.

The 2014 TCU team was so good because quarterback Trevone Boykin came alive and lit up the Big 12. In 2020, the TCU quarterback who could shine is Max Duggan. He was young and unpolished last year, but with an offseason of development, he could become a special player. TCU has had very strong defenses over the years under head coach Gary Patterson, a brilliant defensive mind, but the Horned Frogs’ offenses have been volatile and unreliable. When TCU has had a good offense, though, the quality of the defense has made the Frogs very hard to beat. If Duggan puts the pieces together, TCU could have a very strong season.

Team That Will Disappoint: Oklahoma State Cowboys

Odds To Win Big 12: +650 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Texas has been known to be the perennial disappointment of the Big 12. The Longhorns haven’t won the league championship since 2009, the season when they went to the National Championship game and lost to Alabama. This year, however, another team might be ready to disappoint on a larger scale.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran into a problem in the offseason when coach Mike Gundy was spotted wearing a T-shirt for OAN, a cable television network with controversial political and ideological content. Star running back Chuba Hubbard did not like the fact that his coach wore an OAN shirt. Gundy absorbed a pay cut, and the mindset of his team is very much in question before the season. Gundy and Oklahoma State were very successful for several years in the Big 12, often punching above their weight against opponents with bigger national brand names and more recruiting resources. However, the past few years have involved a decline for OSU – not a collapse, but certainly a lower level of performance than in the first half of the 2010s.

Could the bottom be about to fall out for Gundy? It’s possible. Even if that worst-case scenario doesn’t emerge, OSU probably won’t be able to reach the top four in the Big 12, which would definitely be a disappointment for a program that expects more.

Team That Will Win Big 12

Odds To Win Big 12: +175 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Texas Longhorns, as noted above, have not won the Big 12 in 11 years. The Oklahoma Sooners have won each of the last five Big 12 titles. Based on those facts, you would think Oklahoma should win the league again. To be sure, OU is favored. However, OU had veteran quarterbacks in each of the past four years: Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and then last year, Jalen Hurts. Those quarterbacks were all ready to win. They knew what it took to succeed. Now OU goes with quarterback Spencer Rattler in 2020, a very talented quarterback but not someone with ample college game experience. Texas, meanwhile, has senior Sam Ehlinger, who is hungry for glory in his fourth year with the Longhorns. In each of the previous four years, Texas could not say it had an advantage in either experience or quality at quarterback. This year, it can make the case. As long as Texas’s offensive line holds up reasonably well, the Longhorns can finally overtake the Sooners.

Prediction: Texas Wins Big 12

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.