College Football Betting: Week 10 Under-The-Radar Plays
The college football season moves to November. In regular times, this would mean that we’re getting late in the season, and teams would be about to approach the stretch run of their respective seasons. However, things have e changed under these pandemic conditions. Big Ten teams are just getting started, entering Week 3 of their seasons. The other conferences are at the midpoint of their seasons instead of being two-thirds or three-fourths done.
Let’s look at some of the games that won’t get a ton of attention, given the focus on Clemson-Notre Dame, Georgia-Florida, and the Pac-12 season openers across that particular conference.
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Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats
Odds: Northwestern -4
Yes, it’s is true that Nebraska got tested by Ohio State a few weeks ago, and they might be ready to play at a high level as a result. But it’s also true that Nebraska was unable to play this past weekend against Wisconsin, as the game had to be canceled due to COVID-19 (more precisely, an outbreak inside the Wisconsin program). Pandemic football offers so many uncertainties and questions for bettors, and this is a classic case: will Nebraska be sharp after a week off, or will that break disrupt their rhythm?
Nebraska prepared throughout October for the Ohio State game. It then hoped to apply the lessons it learned in a blowout loss to the Buckeyes to the Wisconsin game, but the Huskers never got that chance. It is impossible to predict how teams will react to pandemic-fueled uncertainties. Ultimately, Northwestern — which overcame a 17-point deficit on the road at Iowa — is a tough enough team with a strong defense that could keep Nebraska’s offense under wraps. The game figures to be competitive, but Northwestern has fewer question marks than Nebraska does at this point.
Pick: Northwestern -4
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Odds: Minnesota -7
The Minnesota Golden Gophers have a terrible defense. We can say this with confidence after the Gophers gave up over 40 points to each of their first two opponents, Michigan and Maryland. That said, Illinois does not have a very imposing offense. Wisconsin hammered the Fighting Illini in their season opener, and in Week 2, Illinois fell behind Purdue 31-10 early in the fourth quarter before scoring 14 points in a desperate rally.
Minnesota won’t fix its defense in one week — they might not at all this season — but Illinois doesn’t have the offensive firepower to threaten Minnesota. The Gophers’ offense, which engaged Maryland in a shootout and had its moments of success versus Michigan, should be able to outscore Illinois enough to win the game outright. Illinois will keep the game close, but it won’t get over the hump.
Pick: Illinois +7
Texas Tech Red Raiders at TCU Horned Frogs
Odds: TCU -9.5
The Texas Tech Red Raiders were embarrassed by Oklahoma, 62-28. Their defense cratered for the second time this season, as they had also given up 63 points to Texas in an overtime game earlier this year. The TCU Horned Frogs do not, however, have one of the more potent offenses in the Big 12. Their offensive line has been ravaged by injuries, and quarterback Max Duggan can’t seem to stay healthy.
TCU played well against Baylor last week, but Baylor probably has the second-worst offense in the Big 12 behind only Kansas. TCU’s defense is solid enough to win this game, but the offense won’t score enough for them to pull away and win comfortably.
Pick: Texas Tech +9.5
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.