College Football Bowl Game Best Bets for Friday & Saturday (12/16 – 12/17)
Hereâs a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Friday and Saturday along with my projections. You can also find my best bets.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favoriteâs perspective. ATL stands for âAdjusted Thor Line.â ATT stands for âAdjusted Thor Total.â
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Bahamas Bowl | Nassau, NP
Friday, December 16 | 10:30 AM
UAB (-11) vs. Miami (OH) | Total: 44.5
ATL: UAB -11.3 | ATT: 45
UAB
No absences reported
Miami (OH)
QB Brett Gabbert (Uncertain)
OT Ryan OâHair (Transfer portal)
OG Caleb Shaffer (Transfer portal)
QB1 Gabbert, limited to four games this year due to an upper-body injury, entered the portal after the season but reversed course and returned to Miami. Between that injury and his abrupt change-of-heart, Gabbertâs status for the bowl is unclear and unclarified. QB2 Aveon Smith, who filled in for an injured Gabbert throughout the season, would draw another start if Gabbert canât go. At publication time, Smith starting is the outcome I expect. OG Shaffer was the teamâs best interior offensive lineman. OT OâHair played only one snap this season.
Coaching news
UAB bypassed interim HC Bryant Vincent â who filled in this season following the sudden retirement of former HC Bill Clark â to hire former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer as HC. This move upset players, who had advocated the administration to remove Vincentâs interim tag. Hurt feelings aside, for this game, this is a development that probably favors UAB. The Blazers figure to give a spirited effort in Vincentâs swan song. UAB never finished below 6-6 under Clark â his first team finished 6-6 and was bowl eligible but didnât get selected.
Handicap
Miami QB Aveon Smith played more than double the snaps that QB Brett Gabbert did in the regular season. Smith gained experience, and also turned in a large enough sample size to judge.
Even though Gabbertâs PFF grade dropped from 82.9 last season to 65.0 in this yearâs limited sample size â playing with limited practice time and ostensibly through injury â Gabbert still graded out appreciably better than Smith. Smithâs 58.0 grade ranked No. 137 out of 159 qualifiers.
Smith really struggles as a thrower. His 39.9 PFF passing grade ranked No. 155 out of 159 (Gabbert ranked No. 89 in the same category). But Smith is a far better runner. In that area, Smith is dangerous. Smithâs 85.4 PFF run grade ranked No. 4 out of 159 qualifying QBs.
Smith actually led the team in rushing despite taking only two-thirds of the offensive snaps. So assuming Smith is starting again, Miamiâs run game will be by degrees more dangerous at the cost of play-called predictability and the neutering of the Redhawksâ aerial attack.
Smith is also more turnover-prone than Gabbert. In 240 dropbacks this season, Smith had 14 turnover-worthy throws. Thatâs exactly as many as Gabbert had the past two seasons combined over neary 400 dropbacks. Smithâs relative effectiveness can be seen in Miamiâs No. 129 SP+ offensive ranking this fall.
Hereâs the good news for Miami if Smith is starting: UABâs pass defense is one of the best in the G5, while UABâs run defense is shoddy. The Blazersâ run defense ranks No. 105 in success rate. Thatâs what youâd choose to attack.
The unfortunate thing for Miami is their conventional running game stinks. It features an uninspiring paint-by-numbers RB rotation behind what was an underachieving offensive line. And that line just lost its best run-blocking starter on the interior in OG Caleb Shaffer.
But while the Blazers will get nicked by Smith on scrambles and designed runs, and perhaps cede consistent short gains to the running backs, they arenât likely to be hurt by much more offered by Miamiâs offense.
UABâs offense this season was about as big of a disappointment as Miamiâs defense was a pleasant surprise. But some of UABâs struggles in that area can be traced to QB Dylan Hopkinsâ mid-season injury.
When Hopkins is in the lineup â as he is now â UABâs passing attack must be respected. And that makes the job of stud RB Dewayne McBride much easier. McBride is No. 3 in PFF grade among running backs. UAB ranked No. 31 in rushing success rate and No. 2 in rushing explosiveness.
Miami counters with a strong run defense that ranks No. 33 in success rate and No. 17 in efficiency. Where UAB can exploit that unit is with home runs â Miamiâs run defense ranks No. 104 in explosiveness.
The margins are very close in this one, admittedly. But Iâm taking the points with Miami. Miami has the better defense â the second-best defense UAB will have played this year behind LSU â and also the better special teams in this matchup. I donât like Miamiâs offense, but this isnât a bad matchup with Smith at quarterback.
RedHawks HC Chuck Martin is 3-0 ATS in bowl games and 5-1 ATS over his career in neutral-site games. His teams do a good job of keeping things close against superior competition to give themselves a chance to steal it late.
The pick: Miami +11
Cure Bowl | Orlando, FL
Friday, December 16 | 2:00 PM
Troy (-1.5) vs. UTSA | Total: 55.5
ATL: Troy -0.8 | ATT: 48.5
Troy
WR Jabre Barber (Injury)
WR Marcus Rogers (Injury)
WRs Barber and Rogers both missed the Sun Belt Championship. Barber has been out since October but remains No. 4 on the team in receptions. The bowl statuses for each are unclear.
UTSA
RB Brenden Brady (Injury)
WR DeâCorian Clark (Injury)
RB Brady missed the CUSA title game with an arm injury suffered in the finale against UTEP. Part of the RB rotation, Brady has rushed for 699 yards this season. RB Kevorian Barnes shredded North Texas for 175 yards and a TD over 28 carries with the increased usage. WR Clark was knocked out for the year in October.
Handicap
Both teams are 11-2 conference champions that come in on heaters â each started 1-2 before ripping off 10-straight wins. They have nearly identical strengths of schedule and resume rankings. Itâs no surprise this line is essentially a pick âem.
Despite qualitative similarities and spread-the-field predilections on offense, these teams are constructed in opposite ways. UTSA has an awesome offense (No. 15 SP+) and a bad defense (No. 92). Troy has a bad offense (No. 101) but an awesome defense (No. 10).
To beat UTSA, you need to have a good secondary, and you need to be able to tackle in space. If you arenât equipped to do both, dual-threat UTSA QB Frank Harris will get the ball into the open field and abuse you. Against a poor strength of schedule, UTSA averaged 38.7 PPG.
Fortunately for Troy, it checks both boxes. Troyâs secondary is led by CB Reddy Steward, one of the nationâs best cover men. Steward ranks No. 5 out of 947 qualifying CBs in PFF grade. Targeted 80 times this season, Steward allowed a mere 4.2 yards per target while intercepting three passes, breaking up seven more, and allowing only one touchdown.
Steward should put the clamps on star UTSA WR1 Zakhari Franklin. Thatâll make Harrisâ life a lot more difficult. Especially with UTSA WR Clark out for the year, which turned UTSAâs three-headed monster at receiver into a two-man show.
Troyâs defense ranks No. 9 in tackling success rate. It is led by undersized banshee LB Carlton Martial, who has already broken the FBSâ all-time record for tackles. Martial and crew will ensure UTSAâs run game and Harrisâ scrambles donât turn into brush fires with the field spread.
Flipping the field, Troyâs offense is inefficient (No. 78 success rate), but super-explosive (SP+ No. 4 marginal explosiveness). I think UTSAâs strong run defense can address a surging Troy run game â RB Kimani Vidal averaged 137.4 YPG rushing over the last five games.
But the Roadrunnersâ tackling issues (No. 123 tackle success rate) and back-end issues concern in a matchup like this. These are the reasons UTSAâs defense ranked No. 122 in explosiveness, an issue likely to come to the fore against Troy.
The pick: Troy -1.5
Fenway Bowl | Boston, MA
Saturday, December 17 | 10:00 AM
Louisville (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati | Total: 41.5
ATL: Cincy -0.7 | ATT: 35.5
Cincinnati
QB Luther Richesson (Transfer portal)
QB Ben Bryant (Injury)
WR Nick Mardner (Transfer portal)
WR Jadon Thompson (Transfer portal)
WR Tre Tucker (Opt-out)
TE Josh Whyle (Opt-out)
OC Jake Renfro (Transfer portal)
CB JQ Hardaway (Transfer portal)
QB1 Bryant has been ruled out for the season with a foot injury. QB2 Evan Prater draws the start for Cincy. TE Whyle and WR Tucker, declaring for the NFL Draft, combined for 84 catches this fall. WR Mardner and WR Thompson combined for 46 receptions. In sum, Cincy is without four-of-their-top-five pass catchers.
Louisville
QB Malik Cunningham (Opt-out)
RB Trevion Cooley (Transfer portal)
RB Jalen Mitchell (Transfer portal)
CB Derrick Edwards (Transfer portal)
QB Cuningham, who was banged up throughout the campaign, aggravated his previous shoulder injury in the regular season finale against Kentucky. Heâs chosen to opt-out. QB2 Brock Domann, who threw for 866 yards this year in relief of Cunningham, will draw another start.
Coaching news
Louisvilleâs staff was blown up following Satterfieldâs defection to Cincinnati. Satterfield announced he wonât coach either of these teams in the bowl. Louisville named Deion Branch interim HC for this game. Not only that, but the assistants coming with Satterfield to Cincy â co-DCs Wesley McGriff and Brian Brown and QB coach Pete Thomas â also wonât participate in this game. In addition, Louisville OC Lance Taylor accepted Western Michiganâs HC gig, while strength coach Ben Sowders left for Arkansas.
On the other side, Cincinnati, obviously, also had to cobble together an interim staff for this game â former HC Luke Fickell, who accepted the Wisconsin job, will not coach in it. Instead, DC Kerry Coombs will serve as interim coach.
Handicap
So much to unpack, here!
While Cincinnati lost more contributors, I actually think the defections on both sides more or less amount to a wash. The reason for that is the drop-off from Louisville QB1 Malik Cunningham to QB2 Brock Domann is much, much larger than the drop-off from Cincinnati QB1 Ben Bryant to QB2 Evan Prater.
Louisvilleâs staff also took a much-heavier short-term hit during the Satterfield-swap. And though itâs fair to question whether Satterfield was the right coach for Cincinnati moving forward, itâs inarguable that Louisville is a motivation question after the entire roster unloaded on Twitter and to the media about its feelings over how Satterfield left.
QB2 Prater gave Bryant everything he could handle in the summer camp battle before ultimately losing the competition. But Prater has been a solidly above-average FBS quarterback when playing this fall. His 76.6 PFF grade isnât far off from Bryantâs 80.4.
While Bryant is the clearly superior thrower (82.8 grade to Praterâs 66.6), Prater is the clearly superior runner (75.2 grade to Bryantâs 48.9). With Prater on the field, the defense needs to worry about another running threat.
Cincinnatiâs run offense disappointed this season. But it ticked way up when Prater was behind center, as did calls for designed quarterback runs. Itâs unfortunate for Prater that Cincyâs receiving corps and tight end corps suffered a mass-exodus after the regular season.
But this will encourage Cincy to run all the more â and this is exactly the area where Louisvilleâs defense is weakest. While Louisvilleâs pass defense is solid, you can nick the Cardinals on the ground â Louisville ranked outside the top-70 in both run defense success rate and marginal explosiveness, and the Cards rank a ghastly No. 119 in tackle success rate.
On the Louisville side, Cunninghamâs loss hurts both Louisvilleâs passing and running games, and it makes the Cardinals less efficient while depriving them of the explosive element that made the Cunningham offenses so dangerous. Domann is a cement-footed pocket passer who isnât there as a thrower yet. Domann ranks No. 139 out of 159 qualifying QBs in PFF grade.
Cincinnatiâs defense remains nasty â No. 17 SP+ â and that unit didnât lose anything of note. The Bearcats pass defense is elite, its run defense is stout, and Cincy has a top-30 tackling success rate.
I see a low-scoring, grind-it-out game coming. This, too, favors the Bearcats. Louisville better not fall behind by double-digits, because Domann throwing into that Cincy secondary is a turnover waiting to happen.
The picks: Cincy +1.5 | UNDER 41.5
New Mexico Bowl | Albuquerque, NM
Saturday, December 17 | 1:15 PM
SMU (-5.5) vs. Brigham Young | Total: 64.5
ATL: SMU -8.5 | ATT: 63
SMU
RB TJ McDaniel (Transfer portal)
WR Rashee Rice (Injury)
WR Rice will sit with a toe injury. One of the nationâs most dangerous receivers, Rice dropped a 96-1355-10 receiving line during the regular season. RB McDaniel was a rotational back that SMU has the depth to cover for without issue.
BYU
QB Jacob Conover (Transfer portal)
QB Jaren Hall (Injury)
WR Keanu Hill (Injury)
OL Campbell Barrington (Transfer portal)
LB Keenan Pili (Transfer portal)
LB Payton Wilgar (Injury)
LB Max Tooley (Injury)
QB Hall suffered a right ankle injury in the finale against Stanford. X-rays were negative. But while Hall said after the game that he was okay and would â100%â play in the bowl game, BYU HC Kalani Sitake has been noncommittal about Hallâs status. I heard early Monday morning that Hall was likely going to be out.
My co-host for the live Saturday handicapping shows, Mike Farrell, heard from his own sources that Hall was out barring a âmiracle.â Between Sunday night and Monday morning, this line jumped from SMU -1.5 to -3.5, and it has now crossed over the key -4 and -4.5 thresholds â clearly multiple heavy hitters in the market heard what we heard.
If Hall indeed canât go, BYU is in a precarious position. QB2 Jacob Conover entered the transfer portal and is out of the picture. Sitake said last week that backup QBs Cade Fennegan, Nick Billoups, and Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters would be competing in practice to determine who will take Conoverâs old spot on the two-deep. Whoever that is would start assuming Hall canât. QB Fennegan has attempted 28 career passes, the other two have no experience.
WR Hill had 36 catches this fall. LB Pili was No. 2 on the defense in snaps taken, while injured LBs Wilgar and Tooley were Nos. 3 and 4 among the linebacking corps in snaps taken. The Cougarsâ bad defense has had its linebacking corps decimated in advance of this game.
Coaching news
BYUâs staff got a serious shake-up after the regular season. BYU associate HC Ed Lamb, who also coached special teams, took the HC job at FCS Northern Colorado. Lamb is bringing the following coaches with him: BYU DE/S coach Preston Hadley, analysts Blair Peterson and Justin Walterscheid, and defensive graduate assistant DJ Williams.
This comes after BYU pushed out longtime DC Ilaisa Tuiaki immediately after the season. Tuiaki returned 10 starters on defense but his unit sagged to No. 93 in yards allowed. In addition, strength and conditioning coach Nuâu Tafisi quietly left the program without an announcement from the university in early-December.
Handicap
BYUâs defense was one of the nationâs most disappointing units. Change was coming, and it happened immediately. But the blowing-up of the staff on that side of the ball isnât likely to improve the problem for the bowl game. Against a high-powered SMU offense, thatâs Problem No. 1.
Problem No. 2 is that defense wonât be at its best on-the-field, either. LB Pili was No. 2 on the defense in snaps taken, while injured LBs Wilgar and Tooley were Nos. 3 and 4 among the linebacking corps in snaps taken. The Cougarsâ bad defense has had its linebacking corps decimated in advance of this game.
Problem No. 3 for BYU is the expected loss of QB Jaren Hall. When I was told about that, on Monday morning, I bought an SMU -3.5 ticket. In the days since, this line has continued to tick up. More movement is on the way when the official announcement drops.
Assuming Hallâs absence, BYU is in big trouble on the offensive side of the ball. With QB2 Conover out the door to transfer, BYU would be looking at a craterous downgrade from one of the FBSâ best quarterbacks (Hall graded out PFF No. 22 among FBS quarterbacks) into the unknown. None of backup QBs Cade Fennegan, Nick Billoups, and Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters has thrown a pass this season.
The offense was the reason BYU remained viable this fall despite the defenseâs no-show. Without QB Hall, that likely wonât be the case against SMU, even against the Mustangsâ poor defense. BYU RB Christopher Brooks will be able to churn out yards, but if BYUâs backup QB canât get the ball to WR Puka Nacua, the Cougars will become one-dimensional and predictable immediately.
BYUâs No. 103 SP+ defense is equally generous against the run and pass. The loss of WR Rashee Rice hurts SMUâs offense, sure, but it doesnât kill it. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai will be looking to put on a show in his swan song, and the Poniesâ depth at the RB and WR positions should ultimately shine through with a barrage of yardage and points.
The pick: SMU -5.5
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl | Inglewood, CA
Saturday, December 17 | 2:30 PM
Fresno State (-3) vs. Washington State | Total: 54.5
ATL: Wazzu -3.7 | ATT: 43
Washington State
WR DeâZhuan Stribling (Transfer portal)
WR Donovan Ollie (Transfer portal)
WR Renard Bell (Injury)
OT Jack Wilson (Left team)
LB Francisco Mauigoa (Transfer portal)
LB Travion Brown (Transfer portal)
LB Daiyan Henley (Opt-out)
CB Armani Marsh (Injury)
The oft-injured WR Bell missed five games this season with injuries and has already been ruled out for the bowl game. WRs Stribling, Ollie, and Bell are Nos. 1, 2, and 4 on the team in receiving yards. Their losses are significant for Wazzuâs pass-happy offense.
Wazzu nickel CB Marsh is expected to play after missing the Apple Cup due to an unspecified injury. Thatâs notable because Washington picked on his backup and poured on 485 passing yards. OT Wilson, a backup tackle and also a basketball player, left the team to join WSUâs basketball program. LB Henley, a first-team All-Pac-12 linebacker who ESPN ranks as a top-60 overall NFL draft prospect, is headed to the Senior Bowl. LBs Mauigoa and Brown were the teamâs top-two middle linebackers.
Wazzu will start two backup LB whoâve never started a game â Ben Wilson and Kyle Thornton â in place of Henley and the Mauigoa/Brown rotation. Depth at the LB position is so bad that HC Dickert said backup SS Jordan Lee shifted to LB for bowl practices to serve as Wilsonâs backup in this game.
Fresno State
DB Cole Sanders
Sanders played the 12th-most defensive snaps for Fresno State this fall and finished with 32 tackles. Sanders had the fourth-worst PFF grade of the 12, so perhaps he wonât be overly missed.
Coaching news
Wazzu DC Brian Ward took the same job at Arizona State.
Handicap
Fresno State has won nine-straight. The Bulldogs are a different team with QB Jake Haener, who returned from injury to start the last seven of those wins. Expect a strong showing in Haenerâs last collegiate game.
You can move the ball on Wazzuâs pass defense. While the Cougars rank No. 55 in success rate in that area, theyâve sagged to No. 78 in marginal efficiency and No. 118 in explosiveness. Fresno State is No. 1 in the country in completion percentage â despite QB2 Logan Fife playing one-quarter of the season â and will be taking aim at a Wazzu defense that ranks No. 90 in the same category.
Wazzuâs defense ranked No. 18 SP+ despite ceding its fair share of yards per play â mostly because that unit was very good situationally. It was strong in the red zone (No. 34 points per scoring opportunity), it created havoc (No. 22), and it took the ball away (tied for No. 20 in turnovers forced).
Itâs fair to wonder if those three areas sustain at current levels with outstanding DC Brian Ward off to Arizona State, and with the linebacking corps absolutely decimated. Two linebackers whoâve never started before will draw their first-career starts for Wazzu in this game (see above).
On the other side of the ball, Wazzu is even more pass-happy than Fresno State. Unfortunately for them, the Bulldogsâ pass defense is the unitâs strength. FSU ranks No. 13 in pass defense success rate and PFF grades its coverage No. 16.
This is an especially big problem for Wazzu after its receiving corps was decimated following the regular season. Wazzu QB Cam Ward is overrated. PFF graded him No. 121 out of 159 qualifying quarterbacks â and that was with his full complement of receivers. I think Fresno shuts down Wazzuâs offense, here.
My system loves the under. Iâll be playing that in addition to Fresno State.
The picks: Fresno -3 | UNDER 54.5
LendingTree Bowl | Mobile, AL
Saturday, December 17 | 4:45 PM
Southern Miss (-6.5) vs. Rice | Total: 46.5
ATL: USM -14.8 | ATT: 46
Rice
QB Wiley Green (Injury)
QB T.J. McMahon (Injury)
WR Luke McCaffrey (Injury)
Riceâs QB room was ravaged with injuries late in the year. QB1 McMahon hasnât played since Nov 12th. He is questionable. QB2 Wiley Green missed the first nine games, and then reinjured his right throwing arm in Game 10 â heâs likely out.
QB3 AJ Padgett started the regular season finale against North Texas, and QB4 Shawqi Itraish saw field action the week prior (before getting yanked for Padgett). The status of WR McCaffrey â an off-the-radar breakout performer in 2022 â is up in the air after he missed the last two games with injuries.
Southern Miss
None reported
Handicap
Riceâs quarterback injuries are a real problem. The Owls â who had improved from 3-9 to 2-4 to 4-8 over the previous three seasons â began the campaign as a feel-good story, opening 5-4. But ever since QB TJ McMahon got hurt, Riceâs fortunates changed.
The Owls lost three-straight to close the campaign. The Owls were blasted by an average of 34.5 PPG in the first two, and in the finale Rice wasnât able to take advantage of a lethargic North Texas team clearly looking ahead to the CUSA title game the next week.
The injury to breakout WR Luke McCaffrey didnât help matters. The former quarterback posted a 51-656-6 receiving line in his first season after transitioning positions, despite missing the last two games with injuries. His status is unknown, but he isnât likely to push it if not 100-percent, and McCaffrey is also a rumored potential transfer candidate.
In lieu of all that, Riceâs passing game has been neutered. Riceâs rushing attack is decent but not special, ranking No. 76 in success rate and No. 24 in explosiveness.
The good news for Rice is that Southern Missâ offense (No. 107 SP+) is nearly as bad as Riceâs defense (No. 111). The very bad news for Rice is that its poor-as-was offense, now compromised, is about to go up against an unforgiving Southern Miss defense (No. 40).
The Golden Eaglesâ defense is extremely active, ranking No. 13 in havoc rate. Not only is Rice out-manned on the skill side of things, but the Owls are going to have a very tough time keeping Southern Miss out of the backfield. Rice is also very likely to lose the turnover battle â the Owls ranked No. 128 in turnover margin during the season, and this is an especially bad matchup for that particular bugaboo.
As it sits now, my system is higher on Southern Miss than any other side over the entire bowl slate. Southern Miss has covered five-of-six and keeps the good times rolling by blasting Rice in the season finale.
The pick: Rice -6.5
Las Vegas Bowl | Las Vegas, NV
Saturday, December 17 | 6:30 PM
Oregon State (-10) vs. Florida | Total: 52.5
ATL: OSU -14.3 | ATT: 47.5
Oregon State
QB Chance Nolan (Transfer portal)
CB Ron Hardge (Transfer portal)
TE Luke Musgrave (Opt-out)
CB Rejzohn Wright (Injury)
RB Damien Martinez, a CFN Freshman All-American, suffered an injury in the finale against Oregon but will play, according to reports. CB Wrightâs season is over following thumb surgery. He was one-half of Oregon Stateâs strong cornerback duo. If thereâs a silver lining, itâs that the Beavers are well-stocked with depth at that position.
Florida
QB Anthony Richardson (Opt-out)
QB Jalen Kitna (Dismissed from team)
RB Lorenzo Lingard (Transfer portal)
WR Trent Whittemore (Transfer portal)
WR Justin Shorter (Opt-out)
TE Nick Elksnis (Transfer portal)
OG OâCyrus Torrence (Opt-out)
OL Josh Braun (Transfer portal)
LB Diwun Black (Transfer portal)
LB Ventrell Miller (Opt-out)
DB Kamar Wilcoxson (Transfer portal)
DB Corey Collier (Transfer portal)
QB1 Richardson is off to the NFL Draft. QB2 Jalen Kitna was kicked off the team following his arrest on child pornography charges. That leaves QB3 Jack Miller III, an Ohio State transfer, to make his first career start. OG Torrence was one of the nationâs best interior offensive linemen. WR Shorter was the teamâs second-best receiver. LB Miller was the teamâs best linebacker.
Floridaâs defense has struggled over the past few years when Miller has missed time due to injury. DT Gervon Dexter declared for the NFL Draft, but announced that he will play in this game.
Handicap
Florida stumbles in losers of two straight, one of those losses coming against Vanderbilt. Then the Gators kept on losing in the immediate aftermath of the regular season, getting decimated as badly as any team in the country with opt-outs and declarations.
This would already have been a bad matchup for Florida, and itâs all the more so now. The Gatorsâ shoddy defense ranked just No. 78 SP+ at full strength. That defense is particularly bad against the run. LB Millerâs absence will hurt against the run-heavy Beavers.
Meanwhile, Florida all season was able to overcome inefficiency on offense through explosive plays. Mostly because of the play-making ability of QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson is gone and his backup is incarcerated, leaving the starting gig to QB3 Jack Miller III. This is an enormous downgrade. Not only that, but OG Torrence was one of the nationâs best offensive linemen and WR Shorter was a valued starter.
The Beavers should be able to run the ball at will, here. And Oregon Stateâs top-25 SP+ defense will have no problem shutting down Floridaâs depleted offense.
This game reminds me of the bowl a few years ago when Florida suffered numerous opt-outs and got blasted by Oklahoma. Facing similar uphill odds here, HC Billy Napier, 1-3 ATS in postseason games, isnât likely to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
The pick: Oregon State -10
Frisco Bowl | Frisco, TX
Saturday, December 17 | 8:15 PM
Boise State (-10.5) vs. North Texas | Total: 58
ATL: BSU -7.2 | ATT: 63
Boise State
QB Hank Bachmeier (Transfer portal)
RB George Holani (Injury)
WR Stefan Cobbs (Injury)
WR Cole Wright (Injury)
WR Austin Bolt (Injury)
TE Tyneil Hopper (Transfer portal)
LB Marco Notarainni (Injury)
RB Holani hurt his shoulder in the MWC title game. But he returned to practice last week and is expected to play. WR Cobbs missed the last two games of the regular season. He, along with WR Wright, are both questionable. WR Bolt and LB Notarainni, meanwhile, will both miss this game after suffering season-ending injuries.
North Texas
RB Oscar Adaway (Injury)
UNT QB Austin Aune will play in this game. But heâs already announced that heâll declare for the NFL Draft after it. RB Adaway was North Texasâ RB1 up until suffering an injury against WKU in late-October. He hasnât played since. His status for this game is unknown.
Coaching news
North Texas fired HC Seth Littrell despite reaching the CUSA title game. The program named DC Phil Bennett interim head coach for this game.
Handicap
North Texas has a strong offense, a top-20 special teams unit, and an awful defense. When they have the ball, the Mean Green are looking to hit home runs â they rank No. 1 in the nation in marginal explosiveness.
North Texas spreads the field with a deep receiving corps. QB Auneâs counting stats are flattered by his supporting cast and strength of the defenses he faced. But the former minor league baseball player, in his late-20âs, sufficiently shuttles the ball off to his playmakers and watches them make plays in space.
Defenses are concerned enough by UNTâs receiving corps that boxes tend to be a bit thin. The Mean Greenâs equally-deep RB room â four-deep before RB Adaway went down â generally takes advantage.
Boise Stateâs defensive numbers are also a bit flattered. The Broncos had a run of good luck facing backup quarterbacks during the regular season. But the Broncos have a strong unit that is top-10 in efficiency. What Boise State struggles with is explosive plays â they rank No. 83 in explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, Boise Stateâs passing game is mediocre. But its rushing attack is very good when dual-threat QB Taylen Green and RB Holani are on the field together. Those two are going to tee-off on UNTâs horrid run defense, which ranks No. 121 in success rate.
Aune, playing in his last collegiate game, is going to connect on a few explosive passes at least. And UNTâs rushing attack is similarly going to rip off a few long runs. Boise State is going to force UNT into some three-and-outs, but UNTâs explosion guarantees at least a few quick-scores for the Mean Green.
In contrast, Boise State likely wonât have the explosive plays, but itâs difficult to envision UNTâs rancid defense making the Broncos punt much.
I struggled with the side handicap. My numbers lean North Texas. And this game is being played very close to North Texasâ campus. But Iâm concerned about UNTâs mindset after the Littrell firing, and I know the Mean Green wonât be able to stop BSUâs run game.
Iâm not concerned by BSUâs mindset. Due to canceled bowl games and the COVID season, BSU has only played in one bowl game in four years. More than half of the roster has never played in one, period. And with numerous players on the roster from Texas â including QB Green â youâd figure the Broncosâ native Texans are looking to put on a show.
But BSUâs offense is far more one-dimensional, and their defense, despite its lofty rankings, has a troubling knack for allowing explosive gains that plays right into UNTâs hands.
Instead of rolling the dice on a side, Iâm going to take the over. The point total has already come up three points since the opener, and I think that line movement is correct with a clear path for each offense to have success on its own respective terms.
The pick: Over 58
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