College Football Conference Championship Week Odds, Picks & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
Conference championship week has arrived, which means we have our smallest college football betting card since way back in Week 0 when I could go outside without a coat on.
Sort of sad, isn’t it?
What isn’t sad is a 2-2 record in the final week of the regular season, which is just fine this late in the game as lines get sharper. While conference championship week will play an enormous role in shaping the College Football Playoff, we won’t be discussing any of those games here (although my fantastic colleagues at BettingPros will be, so don’t miss their breakdowns).
Let’s take a look at my favorite plays among the non-Power 5 conference title games.
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Mountain West Championship Game
Fresno State at Boise State (-3.5), Total 54
Both of the participants in this year’s Mountain West title game closed the year strong after bumpy starts. Way back in September, the Broncos suffered a 27-10 loss on the road against UTEP to fall to 2-2. The offense was broken, and the team fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough afterward. Boise State caught fire immediately afterward, winning seven of their final eight with the lone loss coming to BYU.
Fresno State’s season turned around after a 40-20 loss to Boise State that dropped the team to 1-4 on the campaign, with losses to Oregon State, USC and UConn. Fresno State weathered the storm without star quarterback Jake Haener, who returned to action Halloween weekend and helped Fresno save its season with a five-game winning streak.
Boise State dominated the first matchup between these teams, out-gaining Fresno State 443-233 while averaging 6.3 yards per play. But it’s hard to put much stock into that game considering Fresno State was without Haener.
A healthy Haener makes this game much more interesting. Boise State ranked second in the Mountain West in pass defense. However, its performance is a bit inflated thanks to playing anemic offenses like New Mexico, UT-Martin,
Eight of Boise State’s 11 FBS opponents rank outside the top 100 in passing offense. Fresno State was one of the few exceptions, and the other two are UTEP (86th) and BYU (33rd), who averaged nine yards per attempt and racked up 377 yards through the air.
The key for Fresno State will be limiting a Boise State rushing attack that ranked second in the conference during the regular season and put up 316 yards in the first matchup. However, I’ll take the field goal and the hook with a Bulldogs team that’s red hot and living up to its preseason billing.
The pick: Fresno State +3.5
American Athletic Conference Championship
Central Florida at Tulane (-3.5), Total 56.5
The AAC title game is another revenge match, as these teams just played three weeks ago, with UCF knocking off Tulane 38-31 on the road. The Knights certainly earned the win, as their 336 rushing yards and two takeaways wound up making the difference in a back-and-forth game.
But UCF has been a little flat ever since that huge win over Tulane. The Knights lost straight up to Navy at home the following week. And last week they let a 28-0 lead over 1-11 USF slip away before rallying late to win the War on I-4.
UCF starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee’s status is also a bit uncertain after he left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Backup Mikey Keene has plenty of experience under center and helped lead the comeback, but he isn’t as effective in operating Gus Malzahn’s run-heavy attack.
The Knights prioritize a ground game that ranks eighth nationally with 5.51 yards per carry. Tulane’s run defense ranks 57th in the country and will need to be a lot better this time around to win the conference crown and earn a New Year’s Six bowl bid.
It’s worth noting that Tulane had no issues moving the ball on a UCF defense that ranks 85th against the run and 49th vs. the pass. The Green Wave averaged 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.7 yards per rush. They should have no problem moving the ball in the rematch.
I really like the Green Wave to bounce back and win this rematch. Plumlee could play, but might not be 100%. And I expect Tulane coach Willie Fritz to make some necessary adjustments defensively to contain UCF’s ground game. If Tulane takes care of the football, they’ll take care of business.
The pick: Tulane -3.5
Conference USA Championship
North Texas vs. UT-San Antonio (-8.5), Total 68
I’m going to keep this handicap simple. Both of these offenses rank inside the top 25 in scoring and inside the top 20 in total offense. UTSA ranks 92nd in total defense and 64th in scoring offense, allowing 26.5 points per game. North Texas ranks 121st in total defense and is allowing 30.1 points per game. Lastly, both teams possess passing games that rank inside the top 12 nationally to go with secondaries that rank outside the top 100 against the pass.
In the first meeting with these teams, UTSA won 31-27. I’d expect even more fireworks in a game that could see plenty of possessions. Sometimes, you don’t have to overthink it.
The pick: Over 68
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