College Football: Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers Sports Betting Guide

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In what will what be the proverbial main event of the evening on Saturday, the eighth-ranked Florida Gators head to Death Valley to take on the sixth-ranked LSU Tigers. These two undefeated teams will face off for the fourth straight year, with Florida winning two of the last three including a 27-19 win in the Swamp last season. In what will be homecoming for the Tigers, senior quarterback Joe Burrow and his high-powered offense will face their toughest test of the season thus far against a Florida secondary that can fly around the field. Let’s take a closer look at this top 10 SEC matchup to see where we can spot an edge.

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Florida Gators @ LSU Tigers

Saturday, October 12th, 2019 – 8:00 pm EST
LSU -13, O/U 55.5 (via PointsBet)

Through five games to start the 2019 season, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow has been nothing short of incredible for the Tigers with a 22:3 touchdown to interception ratio. Even when mostly playing from ahead, Burrow ranks second in the nation in passing yards per game with 372.8, trailing only Washington State’s Anthony Gordon. Most impressively, the Heisman candidate Burrow leads the nation in completion percentage (78.4%) and has the Tigers ranked first in the nation in scoring average at 54.6. LSU’s defense has also been strong to the halfway point of the season, ranking 13th in FBS in yards per game at 287.8. Burrow and teammates will be looking to avenge last year’s contest against Florida, a 19-27 loss in which he threw for just 192 yards and two interceptions. One of the best against the spread (ATS) teams in the nation, the Tigers improved to 4-1 ATS after last weekend’s dismantling of Utah State.

As impressive as the Tiger’s offense has been, they will face easily their toughest test of the season in a Florida defense that has been scary good. Not only is the Gators’ defense one of the most disciplined in all of college football, but they also have some of the most talented corners in the SEC that gave Burrow problems early and often the last time these two played. Last week against Auburn, this Florida defense set up camp in freshman quarterback Bo Nix’s head and made themselves comfortable from the opening kickoff. Forcing three interceptions and allowing just 269 yards of total offense against an Auburn offense that was formerly considered high-powered, Florida will be looking to do the same to LSU at home on Saturday night. The key for the Gators will most likely come down to quarterback play of their own in junior quarterback Kyle Trask who will be making the most daunting road start of his career. Trask, who comes into this game with a hobbled knee, has been mostly asked to manage games, which he’s done adequately while throwing for just 176.2 yards per game (94th in FBS).

Bottom Line?

While it’s still relatively early in the season, this is a game that could have College Football Playoff implications and pits two of the best units in the nation against one another in LSU’s offense versus Florida’s defense. Rightfully so, much has been made of this LSU offense and Burrow’s FBS-leading numbers which are why I think you see this inflated total which has even moved up a point since opening. Over the last three seasons, these two teams have played to an average combined score of just 38 points per game, and while LSU’s offense has improved, so has the Gator’s defense. Not only do I expect Trask to struggle mightily in easily the toughest environment of his football career, but Burrow should see a regression in production as well against a defense in Florida that has had his number.

Pick: Under 54.5

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