College Football: Michigan State Spartans vs Northwestern Wildcats Sports Betting Guide
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After originally opening up as 6.5-point favorites, the Spartans have seen an influx of money pour in and now sit at 9.5-point road favorites as kickoff approaches. The Northwestern Wildcats will look to continue their dominance over Sparty, as they seek their fourth straight win in the series where they’ve put up an average of just over 40 points. In what is expected to be a defensive matchup as indicated by one of the lowest totals on the board, let’s take a deeper dive to see where we can find an edge.
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Michigan State Spartans @ Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, September 21st, 2019 – 12:00 pm EST
Northwestern +9.5 +9.5, O/U 38.5 (via PointsBet)
Despite nearly doubling up Arizona State in total offense last week (404-216), the Spartans could simply not put the ball in the end zone, losing 10-7 in a game in which they missed three field goals. Penalties were a major issue for the Spartans last week, incurring 10 including none more devastating than a 12 men on the field violation that wiped a game-tying field goal off the board in the final seconds of regulation. A highlight for this Spartans’ team, however, is once again a vintage Mark Dantonio lock-down defense. Through the first three weeks of the season, Michigan State ranks second in the nation in rushing defense (23.3 yards per game) and third in total defense (216 yards per game). If the Spartans want any hope of competing in the BIG10 East, though, quarterback Brian Lewerke needs to find a way to turn field-goal drives into touchdowns sooner rather than later.
After losing a tough contest on the road at Stanford to start the season, the Wildcats took advantage of their early bye week to prepare for and then dominate UNLV at home. While sophomore quarterback Hunter Johnson has been an adequate game manager, the Wildcat’s running game is starting to pick up, rushing for 276 yards against UNLV including a career-high 141 yards from running back Drake Anderson. Like the Spartans, however, Northwestern relies heavily on their defense, which has already forced five turnovers and recorded seven sacks through just two games. Defensive end Joe Gaziano leads the way for the Wildcats and will need a big day for this defense to pick up their first BIG10 win of the season on Saturday.
Bottom Line?
While money has come in on the Spartans from both the professionals and the public, I think this line has gotten way out of hand. Over their last 13 games as an away favorite, Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS and are averaging just 13 points per game in their last 10 against Power Five opponents.
In his last five games as a home underdog, Wildcat’s head coach Pat Fitzgerald is 4-1-1 ATS and brings in arguably his best quarterback to date at Northwestern in Johnson. In what could very well be a contest that the first team to 14 wins, take the points with a well-coached Northwestern team whose defense is just a shade behind Michigan State.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.