College Football: Michigan State Spartans vs Ohio State Buckeyes Sports Betting Guide
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The 23rd ranked Michigan State Spartans head to Columbus Saturday night to take on the fifth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in prime time. With one combined loss, both teams have looked strong to start the season, but this should be their toughest test to date. The last two seasons have proven to be a mismatch for the Spartans in this matchup, but this season they bring in their most veteran team in recent memory and expect to compete despite the bigger point spread.
Speaking of the spread, has the glowing national media coverage around this Buckeyes team inflated a line the public will most certainly be all over? Let’s take a deeper look at this Big Ten matchup and see where we can find an edge.
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Michigan State Spartans @ Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, October 5th, 2019 – 7:30 pm EST
Ohio State -20, O/U 49 (via PointsBet)
In what will come as a surprise to anyone who has spent time watching this Michigan State team, senior quarterback Brian Lewerke leads the Big Ten in passing yards while having a 10:1 touchdown to interception ratio through five games. While they have faced one of the easier schedules in the FBS to start the season, Lewerke has already improved on his 2018 campaign where he threw for just eight touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. Outside of a Week 3 performance against Arizona State when the Spartans actually outgained the Sun Devils, Sparty has played well thus far, mainly led by their defense. They come into this matchup ranked seventh in yard per game at just 253.8 and fifth in yards per play at 3.93. Even though they struggled to contain Indiana last week, I chalk that up largely to being a look-ahead spot for this Michigan State team with this season-altering matchup on deck.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a team who has impressed more through the first five weeks of the season than Ohio State. Georgia transfer quarterback Justin Fields has been nothing short of dominant, throwing for 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions while the Buckeyes have mostly played from ahead. Through five games, this Buckeyes team boasts a +229 points differential or an average of +47.7 points per game and is looking primed for yet another run at the College Football Playoff. Behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, Buckeyes running back JK Dobbins has also started off strong, with five touchdowns and an average yards per carry of 7.1. As strong as the Spartan’s defense has been, the Buckeyes have been better. Through five games, they rank second in the FBS at 223.8 yards per game and second in yards per play at 3.54. Defensive end Chase Young has been a nightmare for quarterbacks, leading all of college football with eight sacks on the season.
Bottom Line?
Even with Lewerke making better decisions behind the center, this Michigan State team faces an uphill battle on Saturday as they take on one of the most high-powered teams in the country. It doesn’t help that the Spartans haven’t scored a touchdown against the Buckeyes since 2016 and have a combined nine points in their last two meetings. The Spartans also are dealing with a depleted offensive line that is without its critical starting left tackle, a gap that Young should key on from the opening snap.
As shaky as Sparty’s offense has been, their defense is the real deal, and Fields will face easily his toughest test of the season thus far. I like two teams that know each other well to come into Saturday with a more conservative than usual game plan and rely heavily on their defenses. I lean Ohio State to cover the inflated number but love the value the under currently provides with a Michigan State team that could struggle to find the end zone for the third straight year. Given that the game is the marquee matchup of the weekend, expect the total to continue to creep up as the public loves betting the over in nationally televised games.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.