College Football Picks & Predictions: SMU vs. Florida State
There is only one college football game being played on Labor Day, as the 1-0 Florida State Seminoles host the 19th-ranked SMU Mustangs. SMU is favored by 2.5 points, and I fully expect them to win this game after Florida State’s performance last week. However, I still like Florida State to score plenty, thanks in large part to the play of quarterback Ashton Daniels. Here are the best college football picks for SMU vs. Florida State.
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Monday’s Best College Football Picks & Predictions (SMU vs. Florida State)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
No. 19 SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles
Florida State ultimately allowed just 17 points to New Mexico State, but that doesn't change the fact that the defense didn't look great for long stretches. While Florida State’s rushing defense dominated, allowing just 47 yards on 23 attempts, the Seminoles’ passing defense was carved up for 272 yards and two touchdowns. That may not seem like that large of a number to some, but it's important to note that Aggies quarterback Trey Hedden was making his first career FBS start. He averaged 247 yards per game with Furman last year.
While I expect Kevin Jennings and SMU to score plenty against Florida State, I also think Florida State will put up points in this game as well. SMU finished last season with the second-worst pass defense in the nation, allowing nearly 300 yards per game.
Daniels struggled with accuracy in Week 0, something that has plagued him his whole career. However, this is still a quarterback who led Auburn to at least 20 points in games against Vanderbilt and Alabama last season.
Ashton Daniels Over 202.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Considering everything I've already said, this play shouldn't come as a surprise. Ashton Daniels threw for just 202 yards last week, but he also only attempted 27 passes. Last season, SMU allowed the most pass attempts in the nation - 40 attempts per game.
Last season, Daniels played in just four games. In two of those games, he kept Auburn close on the road against ranked opponents, and he was called upon to throw a lot to keep his team competitive. Ultimately, he finished both of those contests with at least 39 pass attempts. He threw for 259 yards against Alabama and 353 against Vanderbilt.
Kendrick Raphael Anytime Touchdown Scorer & SMU to Win (+140)
Though I'm confident Ashton Daniels will put up yards against SMU's weak secondary, I don't like Florida State to have much success elsewhere. This game is being played at Doak S. Campbell Stadium, but Florida State really struggled at home against New Mexico State, leading by just 10 late in the fourth quarter.
I expect Florida State's defense to really struggle against SMU's offense, which is why I think SMU will win this game. And while Kevin Jennings is the player I expect to lead SMU to victory, I anticipate Kendrick Raphael scoring at least one touchdown in this game.
While with Cal last season, Raphael scored 14 total touchdowns, including 13 on the ground. In all, he scored in nine of his 13 games.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.