College Football Playoff National Championship Early Picks & Predictions (2026)

We’re one week away from the conclusion of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff as the Miami Hurricanes prepare to take on the Indiana Hoosiers in the National Championship game. The Hurricanes will be playing home at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, getting a huge boost from the home crowd against the nation’s most dominant program.

Oddsmakers have opened the lines for the National Championship. Indiana is a -7.5 point betting favorite on the point spread, while the point total is set to 48.5. Minimal line movement has occurred thus far. However, we’re still going to find two of the best bets currently available to place on this upcoming title game between the Hurricanes and Hoosiers.

My College Football Playoff Semifinal Early Picks & Predictions (2026) settled 1-1 this past weekend. Miami’s go-ahead touchdown via QB Carson Beck in the waning seconds of their Semifinal win against Ole Miss went over 51.5, settling under 51.5 as a loss. We bounced back on Friday night when Indiana routed Oregon 56-22 to easily cover -4.0 on the point spread.

Let’s finish this college football season with a 2-0 record on the College Football Playoff National Championship game featuring the Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for more betting analysis and free picks.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

College Football Playoff National Championship Picks & Early Line Movement (2026)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Favorite	Underdog	Open Spread	Current Spread	Open Total	Current Total	Spread +/-	Total +/-
Indiana (1)	Miami (FL) (10)	-7.5	-7.5	48.5	48.5	0	0

Miami (FL) (10) vs. Indiana (1)

Both of these teams are 10-5 ATS this season. Indiana is 8-7 toward the point total over, while Miami is 9-6 on the point total under.

Each defense is a stout unit, with Miami ranked fifth in points allowed per game. The Hoosiers’ defense is even more dominant, ranked second in the nation in scoring defense, holding every opponent to 24 or fewer points.

Carson Beck brings a wealth of experience in big-game environments, having played for Georgia when the Bulldogs won titles in 2021 and 2022, while enjoying a strong campaign as a starter in 2023. Indiana QB and 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza, has over 3,300 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and six interceptions with a 73% completion rate in head coach Curt Cignetti’s offense.

Whichever team can establish the run is likely to win this game. Miami has a tougher task in this metric, facing an Indiana defense holding opponents to 2.9 YPC and six total rushing touchdowns this season. RB Mark Fletcher Jr. and RB CharMar Brown will be leaned on early to allow Miami to control time of possession and keep Indiana’s offense off the field.

Indiana has a dynamic backfield tandem between RB Roman Hemby and RB Kaelon Black. Both players are averaging 5.0 YPC or more, while combining for 17 rushing touchdowns and totaling over 2,000 rushing yards. Wideouts Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt lead a talented Hoosiers wide receiving corps, which could give the Hurricanes’ secondary fits.

Miami has surrendered between 237 and 287 passing yards in all three College Football Playoff matchups. Mendoza is playing with extreme confidence and benefits from a stout offensive line unit and weapons all over the field.

Indiana has scored 31 or more points in four of its past five games. The lone exception came against Ohio State during a 13-10 Big Ten Championship victory. Miami’s run defense just got exploited by Ole Miss, allowing 5.8 YPC, while limiting opponents to one or fewer passing touchdowns in nine straight games. The Hurricanes give up explosive pass plays but tend to bow up in the red zone.

We’ve seen Indiana held to 20 or fewer points by defenses like Iowa and Ohio State. Miami’s defense has enough talent to contain the Hoosiers, while Cignetti’s defense is capable of limiting any opponent.

Let’s bet under 48.5 total points before potential line movement drops to 48.0 or 47.5. These are a pair of elite defenses that should limit the number of touchdowns and explosive plays from either offense in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

Pick: Under 48.5 Points (-110)

Indiana has dominated its opponents in the College Football Playoff. The Hoosiers routed Alabama 38-3, making them the only team with a First Round bye to win their Quarterfinal matchup in two seasons of this expanded 12-team format.

In a rematch against Oregon in the Semifinal, the Hoosiers wasted no time taking the lead, recording a pick-six interception on the first play of the game. This led to a landslide win by Indiana, taking a 35-7 lead into halftime, before posting a 56-22 win at the Peach Bowl.

Miami has had its own unique path to the National Championship. After a fortuitous Conference Championship weekend gave the Hurricanes the No. 10 seed, Carson Beck and the Hurricanes have won twice as underdogs against Texas A&M and Ohio State, before a late comeback against Ole Miss in the Semifinal.

Miami is a physical team under head coach Mario Cristobal. They prefer to establish the run on offense, while punishing opponents on defense. Ole Miss’s high-octane offense nearly pulled off the upset, but Beck led the Hurricanes’ offense right down the field in crunch time, before he ran in the winning touchdown.

We saw Miami overcome Ohio State’s top-ranked defense, winning in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Hurricanes can replicate that effort to contend for a National Championship win. They’ve won in a variety of ways in the College Football Playoff, while Indiana has not given opponents a chance to create adversity.

The Hurricanes are too good to be getting +7.5 on the point spread. Let’s bet on Beck and the Hurricanes to keep this game close and cover as a touchdown underdog at home in Hard Rock Stadium on Monday night.

Pick: Miami (FL) Hurricanes +7.5 (-108)

---