College Football Playoff Semifinal Early Picks & Predictions (2026)

We’re down to the final four teams ahead of the 2026 College Football Playoff Semifinal. The Quarterfinal had plenty of surprises and upsets, as Miami beat Ohio State outright as a +9.5 point underdog and Georgia lost 39-34 to Ole Miss as a touchdown favorite.

Oregon shut out Texas Tech 23-0. No. 1 Indiana was the only team with a bye that won a Quarterfinal matchup, dominating Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. The Hoosiers’ Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, went 14-of-16 for 192 yards and three touchdown passes, picking apart the Crimson Tide’s defense with efficiency.

My College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Early Picks & Predictions (2025) settled 1-3. Our hot streak in college football came to an end, with the only winning pick on under 48.5 total points between Indiana and Alabama. Texas Tech’s moneyline never had a chance, while laying points with Georgia and Ohio State proved to be a big mistake in a Quarterfinal that gave us a few unexpected outcomes.

Let’s regroup and look ahead to Thursday and Friday’s Semifinal games. I’ve got a best bet in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl featuring Miami vs. Ole Miss and a Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl rematch between Oregon vs. Indiana. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for more betting analysis and free picks.

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College Football Playoff Semifinal Picks & Early Line Movement (2026)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Favorite	Underdog	Open Spread	Current Spread	Open Total	Current Total	Spread +/-	Total +/-
Miami (FL) (10)	Ole Miss	-3.0	-3.5	52.5	51.5	-0.5	-1.0
Indiana (1)	Oregon (5)	-4.0	-4.0	46.5	46.5	0	0

Miami (FL) (10) vs. Ole Miss (6)

The Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona will kick off with a pair of Quarterfinal underdogs. Miami and Ole Miss both managed to upset Ohio State and Georgia.

The Hurricanes’ smothering defense held the Buckeyes to 14 points, including a first-half shutout. The Rebels leaned on QB Trinidad Chambliss and their explosive passing attack, recording over 350 passing yards and a 20-point fourth quarter to erase a 21-12 half-time deficit.

Line movement has gone in favor of Miami since opening at -3.0. The Hurricanes are now -3.5, with the point total dropping from 52.5 to 51.5. The total is a tough read with Ole Miss and Miami playing contrasting styles of offense.

The Rebels have scored 30 or more points in eight straight games. Former head coach Lane Kiffin’s departure has seemingly inspired or motivated Ole Miss, while many expected regression and an early exit.

Under head coach Mario Cristobal, Miami’s defense has begun to solidify itself as the best unit remaining in the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes’ defense has allowed one rushing touchdown in its last three games, while holding its previous five opponents to two total passing touchdowns. Miami has also forced multiple turnovers in four of its last six games played.

Ole Miss’ defense has been stingy against the pass lately, while its run defense has been a bit more vulnerable. Miami’s rushing attack thrived against the Buckeyes’ No. 1-ranked run defense, so expect its tandem of running backs to be productive against the Rebels.

Moving from -3.0 to -3.5 means we’re currently through a key number for Miami. The Hurricanes must win by more than a field goal, which they’ve accomplished against each of their six opponents during their current winning streak.

Ole Miss is also riding a heater, winning seven consecutive games since their lone loss to Georgia back in mid-October. Chambliss has the best arm remaining in the College Football Playoff, and he’ll be tasked with overcoming Miami’s fourth-ranked scoring defense.

No team has scored more than 17 points against Miami since SMU beat them 26-20 in overtime back on November 1. Ole Miss leans on its run game with Kewan Lacy, but that won’t be a productive area against Miami’s stout run defense.

Let’s follow the steam and bet under 51.5 total points. Miami may only win by a field goal or less, so I’m less interested in laying -3.5 and more keen on betting the point total under with the Hurricanes’ top-ranked defense on the field.

Pick: Under 51.5 (-105)

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Oregon (5) vs. Indiana (1)

The Peach Bowl will feature a fantastic rematch between Oregon and Indiana on Friday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Indiana won outright on the road in Eugene as a +7.5 point underdog back in early October, beating the Ducks 30-20 for a statement win.

The Hoosiers remain undefeated in head coach Curt Cignetti’s second season with the program. Indiana also benefits from rostering Fernando Mendoza, who just won the Heisman Trophy, along with the nation’s second-ranked scoring defense.

Oregon is no pushover. The Ducks just blanked a Texas Tech offense ranked top-ten in scoring during a 23-0 Quarterfinal victory. Now, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning will fuel his team with the typical fiery motivation leading up to this high-stakes rematch for a trip to the National Championship Game.

The point spread opened at Indiana -4.0 and hasn’t fluctuated at all. The point total opened at 46.5 and has bounced between this number and 47.5 before settling back at 46.5, where it currently sits.

Oregon ranks sixth in scoring defense. QB Dante Moore has improved in every start this season, although his worst performance came against the Hoosiers, throwing for under 200 yards and two costly interceptions.

The Ducks lean on their backfield, cycling primarily between Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison. Moore didn’t throw a touchdown against Texas Tech’s stingy defense but did log 245 passing yards and an interception.

Mendoza has plenty of weapons in Indiana’s offense. Whether it’s wideouts Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt, or running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, the Hoosiers’ third-ranked scoring offense is well-balanced and difficult to contain.

Moore commits more turnovers than Mendoza, which is where this game likely gets decided. Each offense and defense is a top-10 unit, yet the Hoosiers have the superior coach and a lot more momentum, gaining confidence from their first win out in Eugene earlier this season.

Indiana feels like a team of destiny with Mendoza and Cignetti at the helm. Even though it’s difficult to beat the same opponent twice in a season, let’s lay -4.0 with the Hoosiers before this number gets any bigger closer to kickoff.

Pick: Indiana -4.0 (-108)

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