College Football Week 10 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)
Week 9 saw our hot streak come to an end as our picks went 0-3, bringing the season total to 10-18. We remain profitable over the whole season and look to the week 10 slate to get us back going in the right direction. Week 10, thankfully, gives us a nice crop of longshots that will look to shock the favorites and bring us home some profitable victories.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>
Maryland +5 at Wisconsin
This game is a little shorter than the games I like to highlight here, but the spot is too perfect to pass up.
Maryland is having their best season in over a decade, and after an injury scare a few weeks ago, will get QB Taulia Tagovailoa back for this matchup with Wisconsin. Tagovailoa’s QB rating has put him in the same stratosphere as some of the best passers in college football on the year. He’s led a Maryland pass offense that has ranked 20th in EPA pass offense. On top of this, they’ve compiled a 23rd-ranked EPA run offense. All of this has added up to a 19th-ranked SP+ offense that has kept them in every game they’ve played, including against an elite Michigan defense.
Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz has been a Jekyll and Hyde candidate this season, having great games in wins over Northwestern and Purdue, but playing quite poorly against other Power 5 teams. Wisconsin’s offense seems to go as his play goes in drastic contrast to past Wisconsin offenses.
Maryland has not been a world-beater defensively, ranking 57th in defensive SP+, but has performed well against the pass, ranking 30th in EPA pass defense. They are capable of taking Graham Mertz out of rhythm.
With a dynamic offense that can score on any opponent when healthy, Maryland is a scary team to play in the Big Ten. Their defense will need to step up, but against a Wisconsin offense that has already failed to show up in a few games this year, they have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset in Madison.
Pick: Maryland ML (+165)
Western Kentucky at Charlotte +16
Bear with me because this pick will raise a few eyebrows. Charlotte has been nothing short of awful this season, which is why their head coach was fired after a 1-7 start and an embarrassing loss to FIU. However, the 49ers responded in week 9 with a throttling of Rice, putting up 514 yards of offense and 8.2 yards per play.
Charlotte brings a defense that is near worst in the country, ranking 130th in defensive SP+. The only way they win any game is with their offense. Western Kentucky is one of those opponents in which they can find themselves in a shootout with. This Charlotte team can go as far as QB Craig Reynolds will take them offensively. If he’s on like last week, they can exploit a Western Kentucky defense that ranks only 91st in defensive SP+.
This is the largest moneyline dog we’ve been on all year, but the way Charlotte responded to a new voice in the clubhouse last week gives me some confidence that the 49ers can force a shootout and pull this off.
Two bad defenses and a home underdog with a capable pass offense is a perfect formula for a longshot upset. I’m going to hold my nose and dive into the Charlotte moneyline.
Pick: Charlotte ML (+460)
UNLV +6.5 at San Diego State
To say SDSU’s offense has been anemic would be putting it lightly. They’ve struggled to move the ball against almost every FBS team they’ve faced. Their 2-2 Mountain West record is deceiving as the two wins come against Hawaii and Nevada, perhaps two of the worst teams in the country. Additionally, in conference play, they’ve scored just 17.5 points per contest.
UNLV comes into town 2-2 in conference themselves and has plenty to play for. The Runnin’ Rebels are 4-4 on the season and just two wins away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.
UNLV has put together one of the most surprisingly effective running attacks, ranking third in run offense EPA behind only Oregon and USC. This is the best run EPA offense SDSU has played since Hawaii, who broke a few explosive runs and averaged 6.1 yards per carry. UNLV should have similar success on the ground.
The Rebel defense has been suspect, ranking 110th in SP+ defense, but this may not matter against an SDSU offensive attack that struggled to light up the scoreboard against defenses that are rated worse in Hawaii and Nevada.
The Rebels will be running on this Aztec defense, and if they’re able to find the endzone a few times, it will be too much for an SDSU offense that isn’t built to keep up with that. As a team fighting for their first bowl game in quite some time, they’ll come out here with a lot of pride and an upset on their mind.
Pick: UNLV ML (+215)
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