College Football Week 10 Picks & Predictions: Illinois vs. Michigan State (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 10 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Illinois vs. Michigan State.
And check out our other College Football Week 10 game previews and picks:
- Tennessee vs. Georgia
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas
- Air Force vs. Army
- Ohio State vs. Northwestern
- Florida vs. Texas A&M
- Alabama vs. LSU
- Clemson vs. Notre Dame
- California vs. USC
- Penn State vs. Indiana
- Arizona vs. Utah
- UTSA vs. UAB
- James Madison vs. Louisville
- Maryland vs. Wisconsin
- Western Kentucky vs. Charlotte
- UNLV vs. San Diego State
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 10 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 10 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Illinois vs. Michigan State
What a surprise, a Big Ten under! We threaded the needle with Illinois last week with a win and an under, and Illinois didn’t disappoint, dominating time of possession and forcing Nebraska to throw. I kind of feel like Nebraska and Michigan State are the Spiderman meme right now, but Nebraska is statistically and grade-wise slightly better than Michigan State. The Spartans have performed better, though they both stand at 3-5. Illinois will continue dominating on the ground and in time of possession for sure in this game.
The biggest stat that jumps out to me for this game is the aforementioned time of possession. Illinois is coming in at third in the country, averaging just over 35 minutes, and Michigan State is just under 24 and a half minutes, so I would expect that to be pretty close to the final. Illinois is averaging just under 200 yards rushing, and while they are top 15 in pace of play (78 offensive plays per game), the Illini are 90th in yards per play which adds up to 79th in points per drive. This combo not only has Illinois at 7-1 on the season but also 6-2 ATS, and only two of their eight games have hit the Over. RB Chase Brown is still leading the nation in rushing attempts and yards, and his Heisman Odds dropped from 50-1 to 40-1 after his 32-149-1 plus a receiving TD last week against Nebraska.
The defensive side for Illinois should really dominate, and I’m not sure that Michigan State will score at all. Speaking of the Spiderman meme, Illinois is really close to Michigan defensively in statistics and PFF grades. Last week State could only muster one touchdown against Michigan, only converted two of 11 third down opportunities, and held the ball for less than 20 minutes. Illinois is first or second in scoring, passing and their rushing defense is top 15 in sacks, only allowing more than one touchdown twice this season. Michigan State possessing the ball more than expected would probably help our under as they are 124th in pace. My only fear for the over is Illinois getting to 35 points and Michigan State putting up 10. The only game Illinois has hit 35 points in was the 38 they put up in Week 1 against Wyoming. Since then, they have scored over 30 only twice, once against Wisconsin and once against FCS Chattanooga. This feels like a 28-3 or 28-10 type of game. I expect Illinois to continue their dominance over the Big Ten and slow-cook the Spartans with the boring run-first and strong defense method HC Bret Bielema loves!
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