College Football Week 11 Same Game Parlays Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
As the season dwindles and two versions of the CFB Playoff rankings are released, we already see some big changes, with a couple of those top four going down. We’re featuring a game with one of the new top four in what could be their biggest challenge yet. We also have a game that could play a factor in a future conference championship game, which could a particular team in the playoffs.
(All rankings according to the CFB Playoff Committee)
(All odds via FanDuel)
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>
- Leg 1: LSU -3.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: Under 61.5 total points (-115)
- Leg 3: Kayshon Boutte over 55.5 receiving yards (-114)
So much has changed in Baton Rouge over the last couple of months. We went from wondering if Brian Kelly was the right hire to the Tigers setting their own path to the SEC title game.
What has changed? The run game has improved significantly. The pass protection has been average, but the offensive line has been allowing Jayden Daniels and the backfield to attack the ground game, and they're 6-0 when they average 4.5 yards or more per carry. Arkansas is 59th in run defense and allowed 4.5 or more yards per carry in their losses to Mississippi State, Alabama, and Texas A&M.
Even with sub-par pass protection, Arkansas has the third-worst passing defense in the country, and there could be moments where Daniels could use his arm to make a big play.
Arkansas needs to ground and pound if they want a chance. In their loss last week to Liberty, they ran for a season-low 144 yards and looked flat again on offense. LSU is just behind Arkansas with 62nd run defense, so they could have better luck.
The home-field advantage hasn't been there, and the Razorbacks are 3-3 in Fayetteville. We're going to get an old-school SEC matchup in the trenches, but with LSU having something to play for and a much-improved run, I love them coming away with the win.
Parlay Odds: +611 via FanDuel
#4 TCU vs. #18 Texas
- Leg 1: Texas first half -4.5 (-120)
- Leg 2: Over 64.5 total points (-115)
- Leg 3: Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown (-310)
- Leg 4: Max Duggan over 25.5 rushing yards (-114)
It may be tough to wrap your head around why a three-loss Texas is a touchdown favorite against TCU. We're seeing that Quinn Ewers is a big factor, and the Longhorns struggle without him. Lastly, playing this game in Austin will be the toughest road challenge for the Horned Frogs this year.
Even with Ewers, Texas wants to establish the run. Bijan Robinson has been impactful and is one of the two players in the FBS that has over 1,000 yards rushing and 200 yards receiving.
The Horned Frogs are 70th in the country in run defense while allowing 15 rushing touchdowns. The presence of Robinson could leave an already 95th-ranked pass defense more exposed, and Texas still has pass catchers like Xavier Worthy, who's caught a touchdown in six straight games.
TCU has the offensive players to counter Texas, and this game could turn into a shootout. The biggest question for them is the status of Quentin Johnson, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Max Duggan still has Taye Barber and Derius Davis to lean on, but Johnson has been their biggest playmaker this year.
The first-half spread is a better play than the total. Texas leads the conference in points and scoring differential in the first half, while TCU leads those categories in the second. TCU has started slow and made the adjustments because they know they have the offense to keep them close.
Texas has frequently jumped to big leads, and they either come away barely with the wins or completely lose it.
Parlay Odds: +841 via FanDuel
#9 Alabama vs. #11 Mississippi
- Leg 1: Ole Miss (-120)
- Leg 2: Under 64.5 total points (-110)
- Leg 3: Zach Evans anytime touchdown (+125)
Which road Alabama team are we going to get? It could be the ones who went into Baton Rouge and Knoxville and took losses or those who went to Fayetteville and took care of business.
The critical factor is the health of Bryce Young. Yes, he's on the field, but that shoulder does not look 100%, and he did not look good against LSU.
Ole Miss is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, but last week they made Texas A&M true freshman Conner Weigman look like a Heisman candidate, so if Bryce Young has any strength in that arm, he could win this on his own.
This hasn't been your typical Lane Kiffin offense, they actually run the ball a lot. They're the No. 3 rushing offense in the nation and continue to rush for over five yards a carry. They allowed 4.7 yards per carry to Tennessee and 5.4 to LSU if Ole Miss can move the ball on the ground.
That's why this game is going to be close.
Parlay Odds: +760 via FanDuel
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