Navigate

College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

by |

As November continues, the action in College Football is heating up considerably. Only two weeks remain during the regular season. Some teams are still fighting for bowl eligibility, and others are still fighting for conference championships.

Here are a few of my favorite matchups this weekend with long-shot upset possibilities.

College Football Week 12 Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Temple Owls at UAB Blazers (-7)

UAB has been one of the more tricky teams to pin down this season. Offensively, they’ve had some phenomenal games. They’ve scored 35 or more in four games this year and have managed under 20 points just once. They rank 41st in the country in offensive EPA and 34th in dropbacks. However, even with this exceptional offensive output, they sit just 3-7 and squarely outside bowl eligibility.

They’ve struggled to take advantage of their offensive success because they have one of the worst defenses in the country. They sit 126th in defensive EPA, with one of the worst run defenses. This is welcome news for a Temple team that has struggled against some of the better defenses they’ve played this year. Against lesser defenses, like UTSA and Navy, they were able to move the ball well through the air led by EJ Warner, who has managed over 2,400 yards.

These are two pretty poor defenses, so I expect the scoring to be high. With a back-and-forth affair like this, it may come down to the last team with the ball. Temple should be able to get enough stops to keep them in this one, and if they can get late into the fourth quarter with a lead or tie, they should be able to pull off a big upset win.

Bet: Temple ML (+250)

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers (-6.5)

What are we doing here? Sure, North Carolina’s defense took them out of the playoff race, but this is one of the best offenses in the country. It’s a top-10 offense in EPA, led by future NFL first-round pick Drake Maye. This will be the best offense that Clemson has faced since Florida State. In that game, Jordan Travis found a lot of success in the air, and Maye should too.

The big question is whether Clemson scores enough to shut UNC down. The Tigers had a lot of success against a marginally worse defense in Georgia Tech last week. Clemson was fortunate to take advantage of four Georgia Tech turnovers to help get some short fields. Maye has only thrown six interceptions on the season, so relying on those costly turnovers won’t benefit the Tigers much here.

This North Carolina team is only a few plays away from sitting 10-0 with an inside track to the ACC title game. Unfortunately for them, it didn’t happen. Clemson has already shown time and time again this season that their offense cannot be relied on to show up every week. The Tigers have lost to nearly every outstanding team they’ve played this season. Yet somehow, they sit at nearly touchdown favorites in this matchup. I’m backing the better quarterback and better team here in an ACC upset.

Bet: North Carolina ML (+220)

UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans (-6.5)

Saturday will mark the final time this rivalry matchup will be part of the Pac-12 schedule. It’s been nothing short of disappointing for both of these teams this season, as the USC defense was never able to slow down any offense with or without a pulse. Conversely, UCLA’s offense was never able to find the right quarterback to lead the way.

USC hasn’t beaten a team by more than a touchdown since Sept. 23 against Arizona State. In their last seven games, they’ve allowed 43 points per game. This includes a matchup against a Cal team that ranks around UCLA’s 102nd in EPA offense. Against the Bears, the Trojans allowed 49 points and nearly lost on a two-point conversion.

On the other side of the ball. This is likely the final game for star QB Caleb Williams. It’s difficult to bet against Williams, but this will be one of the three-best defenses he’s faced all season. The other two top-10 EPA defenses they faced were Notre Dame and Oregon. These were the only teams to hold the Trojans under 28 all year. Those two opponents held USC to season-lows in rushing yards and forced Williams into tough situations to keep scoring.

UCLA should be able to contain USC like only a handful of teams have. Although the Bruins have struggled offensively this season, every offense with a pulse has been able to score on this defense. This is the last game of the season for USC. You have to wonder where the focus is for head coach Lincoln Riley, whose name is being linked to a lot of open jobs both within the college and pro ranks. Of course this kind of speculation shouldn’t affect what happens on the field, but it can’t be ignored. For these reasons, I like UCLA to pull off this upset to end USC’s season.

Bet: UCLA ML (+235)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts