Bogman’s College Football Week 13 Best Bets (2022)

by Scott Bogman |
Nov 25, 2022

Week 12 results: 5-4
2022 Season Record: 69-50

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UTSA -17.5 vs UTEP & OVER 56.5

UTSA is peaking right now behind stud QB Frank Harris. In last weekâ€™s dismantling of Rice, Frank Harris had two passing TDs, and three rushing TDs and ran for more yards than he passed for in the 41-7 victory! The Roadrunners scored at least 41 points in all three games in November, and the only game they have scored fewer than 31 this season was when they could only muster 20 against Texas in Week 3. UTSA is 12th in scoring in the Nation, and the only G5 team that averages more than UTSA is SMU; they are averaging more PPG than teams like North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Kansas. UTEP isnâ€™t helpless on defense; they are middle of the road in scoring (68th, 26.4 PPG allowed), are allowing just over 200 yards passing (33rd), and fewer than 150 rushing yards (141, 56th). UTEP has solid overall grades on PFF, but they have been inconsistent in performance. They held FIU to under 100 yards, but they allowed over 500 yards to Rice the week before.

UTSA has stepped up on defense in the last two games allowing only 14 points, but they arenâ€™t above the occasional letdown defensively. UTSA has given up over 30 points four times, but I donâ€™t think thereâ€™s a need to worry about that as the starting QB Gavin Hardison might play (he didnâ€™t last week with an ankle injury). But even if he does, heâ€™s likely less than 100%. If Hardison is down, backup QB Calvin Brownholtz should be the guy. He performed admirably last week (although it was against one of the worst FBS teams in FIU), as the Miners but up 40 points and 500 yards. UTEP is a little better than average rushing the ball but well below average passing the ball, but in PFF grades, UTEP is better passing than running but not efficient with either. If this turns into a shootout, thereâ€™s no way UTEP is going to be able to keep pace.

UTSA is 9-2 on the season, but ATS they are 6-5. Only one of those games was as an underdog, and two were lines over 30 points. The other two were against WKU, the 3rd best passing offense in the country, and North Texas, who had 325 passing yards and only 22 rushing yards. I donâ€™t think UTEP has the offense to keep up with UTSA (especially passing) or the defense to slow them down. I feel that UTEP would have to hold UTSA to under 30 for this game to stay under, but Texas was the only team to do that this season and they would probably have to score 4 TDs to keep this within reach as far as the spread goes and they have only done that three times this season. The Roadrunners will close out the regular season with a massive win over UTEP!

Illinois -14.5 @ Northwestern and UNDER 38

We have seen the end of the Illini peaking. I was shocked by the loss to Michigan State, and since then, they have lost two more, making the skid 3 in a row after starting 7-1. We will use this to our advantage because this line, in my opinion, is one of the easiest covers of the season. Northwestern is one of the worst rushing defenses in the country, ranking 116th statistically and grading worse than that at PFF. Chase Brown is still leading the Nation in rushing yards and is the catalyst of the Illini offense and should close out the regular season with one of his best games. Northwestern is excellent against the pass statistically, but thatâ€™s most likely because teams just donâ€™t have to pass against them, and PFF grades back up that theory as they grade out as a bottom 5 team in coverage. In Big Ten play, the only opponents that didnâ€™t have over 140 rushing yards against Northwestern were Nebraska and, weirdly, Ohio State. Minnesota just put up 300 yards on Northwestern in Week 11.

Northwestern is even worse on offense, as theyâ€™re one of only five teams to average under 15 PPG and havenâ€™t scored more than 9 points in 3 straight weeks. Since Week 5, Northwestern has averaged even less at just 10.5 points and has only scored over 20 points once. Illinois has been off recently, but they just held Michigan to 19 points, which is half their average, and this isnâ€™t going to be half the challenge. Northwestern was down to their 3rd string QB Cole Freeman who only mustered 78 passing yards against Purdue. Somehow Northwestern ranks worse statistically rushing than passing, checking in at 103rd nationally, but I would say itâ€™s their strength with RB Evan Hull leading the way. Evan Hull is top 50 in rushing yards and is one of only 20 RBs with over 200 carries this season. Unfortunately for Northwestern, Illinois is one of 10 teams allowing less than 100 yards rushing and grades as a top 10 run defense on PFF.

Illinois may not be at its best, but they are still light years ahead of Northwestern. Motivation is probably the most significant factor here. While there may not be much left for Illinois to play for, Northwestern is limping to the finish line with 10 consecutive losses. Minnesota just beat Northwestern 31-3, and I feel like this game will play out very close to that. Illinois wins big!

Iowa -10.5 vs. Nebraska

This is a less extreme version of the Ill-NW game we just talked about. Iowa is a disaster on offense statistically, but they have won and covered four straight games and have averaged 23.5 points while allowing less than 10 per game. Iowa did lose their best offensive player last week when Sam Laporta went down, but backup TE Luke Lachey stepped up and had five catches for 77 yards. Starting FB, Monte Pottebaum is down as well, which might be the bigger of the losses, but they survived last week with him only playing two snaps, so I donâ€™t know that it will matter much against Nebraska. Iowa wonâ€™t light up the scoreboard, but they wonâ€™t need to do much scoring to cover this spread.

Nebraska has been awful offensively over the last month, but they were missing starting QB Casey Thompson, for a big chunk of that stretch, but he was able to return last week. Thompson could only put up 106 yards passing last week, albeit against a tough pass defense in Wisconsin. Iowa ranks better statistically as a top 10 pass defense and ranks 1st in PFF grade in pass coverage. Nebraska ranks 95th in rushing offense, but they have run for less than 100 yards in 3 of their last four games and are really limping to the finish line here.

In my opinion, the biggest difference in this game will be turnovers. Casey Thompson can sling the rock but also turn the ball over. In 9 games for Thompson (one of them he left injured), he has 11 turnovers, and overall, Nebraska ranks 109th with a -6 turnover margin. Iowaâ€™s defense turns the ball over; they have forced 20 turnovers on defense and are +7 on the year, putting them in the top 20. Iowa will be missing some pieces on offense, but the Huskers have lost five straight and are weak on both sides of the ball. This one will be low-scoring and ugly, but Iowa should be able to cover this spread fairly easily.

Other Games I Like:

Auburn +22 @ #6 Alabama
#4 TCU -10 vs. Iowa State
#16 Florida State â€“ 9.5 vs. Florida
#5 USC vs. #15 Notre Dame UNDER 64.5
#6 LSU -10 @ Texas A&M

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