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College Football Week 13 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks (2022)

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First and foremost, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!!! Hopefully, you are surrounded by the people that mean the most to you.

Secondly, what a fantastic record we posted last week. Here’s a quick recap. Underdogs went a blistering 4-1 ATS with two ML winners. We were just a little luck away from cashing Illinois ML in a gigantic upset against Michigan. Only Jim Harbaugh can kick three field goals in the 4th quarter to overcome a 7-point lead and not be punished. A UMASS cover was never in doubt, Arkansas put a beatdown on Ole Miss, and Iowa showed up against the ever-predictable Minnesota offense. Favorites went 2-1 ATS and 3-0 ML. Oregon State proved itself again against a run funnel defense, and Auburn showed up in the second half to put away Western Kentucky.

If you tailed along for the ride, you would have cashed both parlays to the tune of +511 and +256. This brings our overall record in this column to 42-33-1 ATS with sixteen ML underdog winners.

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

  • An underdog with a high rush rate vs. an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
  • A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
  • An underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball.
  • A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for.

  • Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs. below-average defenses
  • Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 rush rate favorite
  • Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top 30 rush rate underdog
  • Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

  • Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
  • Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
  • Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
  • Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
  • Def Power Success Rate: the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2-yard line are also included.
  • PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric

Let’s dive into the seven games we will target this week.

Arkansas @ Missouri

Arkansas

  • 11th Rush Rate

Missouri

  • 9th Def Stuff Rate
  • 12th Def Line Yards
  • 63rd Power Success Rate
  • 16th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 126th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 31st PFF Rush Def

New Mexico @ Colorado State

New Mexico

  • 18th Rush Rate

Colorado State

  • 92nd Def Stuff Rate
  • 82nd Def Line Yards
  • 103rd Power Success Rate
  • 79th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 89th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 95th PFF Rush Def

Wyoming @ Fresno State

Wyoming

  • 10th Rush Rate

Fresno State

  • 50th Def Stuff Rate
  • 92nd Def Line Yards
  • 58th Power Success Rate
  • 60th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 98th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 124th PFF Rush Def

Army @ UMASS

UMASS

  • 9th Rush Rate

Army

  • 127th Def Stuff Rate
  • 130th Def Line Yards
  • 122nd Power Success Rate
  • 130th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 31st Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 122nd PFF Rush Def

Kent State @ Buffalo

Kent State

  • 19th Rush Rate

Buffalo

  • 30th Def Stuff Rate
  • 29th Def Line Yards
  • 19th Power Success Rate
  • 20th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 131st Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 60th PFF Rush Def

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

Minnesota

  • 4th Rush Rate

Wisconsin

  • 8th Def Stuff Rate
  • 15th Def Line Yards
  • 36th Power Success Rate
  • 13th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 19th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 55th PFF Rush Def

Notre Dame @ USC

Notre Dame

  • 13th Rush Rate

USC

  • 75th Def Stuff Rate
  • 111th Def Line Yards
  • 115th Power Success Rate
  • 125th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 104th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 71st PFF Rush Def

The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the seven games we are going to target this week:

  • New Mexico (+7.5), Wyoming (+14.5), UMASS (+19.5), and Notre Dame (+5.5) are the four underdogs with a top-30 rush-rate
  • Missouri (+3) is the only underdog with a stout defense against a top-30 rush-rate opponent
  • Wisconsin (-3.5) and Buffalo (-4.5) are the two favorites who have a stout defense against a top-30 rush-rate opponent

Like I said last week, this is how the column normally feels. We have a smaller sample of games we target with several familiar faces that we have backed and faded at numerous points this year.

Wyoming is playing a Fresno State team that has already locked up a spot in the Mountain West Championship. On top of that, Fresno State is also sporting a horrendous 124th PFF Rush Defense ranking. There are two other top-30 rush-rate teams that have beaten Fresno State. Boise State is understandable, but UCONN is one that would surprise you. Wyoming will give an uninspired Fresno State team all it can handle.

Buffalo is looking to become bowl eligible against Kent State. Buffalo’s only real Achilles heel against rush-heavy teams is they are dead last in allowing explosive plays (131st Def Rush IsoPPP), but they are sound in every other advanced rushing metric. Buffalo has faced four top-30 rush-rate teams (Toledo, Miami OH, Coastal Carolina, and UMASS). They are 3-1 against them. Buffalo should play soundly in this familiar matchup.

UMASS getting 19.5 points is pretty astounding to me. Do not let UMASS’s 1-10 record give you pause. This is a matchup built for them. Army boasts a classic run-funnel defense. Army is horrendous in every defensive rushing metric except allowing explosive plays. UMASS is a respectable 40th in Defensive Power Success Rate and 58th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate. This is, simply put, too many points.

Lastly, we get to arguably the most influential game of the slate in Notre Dame @ USC. Remember, our angle is simple: target top-30 rush-rate teams in optimal situations. Notre Dame could not possibly be in a better matchup. USC is absurdly horrid at defending the run. A team with this much talent should not be this objectively bad. This simply tells me USC is extremely undisciplined against the run. Notre Dame will control this entire game script and turn this into a slugfest instead of a track meet.

This week we will attack the slate with a combination of ML parlays and small teasers.

ML Parlay/Underdog Spread

  • Buffalo ML
  • Wisconsin ML
  • UMASS +19.5
  • New Mexico +7.5

This parlay pays +809. You can buy points on UMASS and New Mexico if you want more of a cushion, but remember, it will reduce your payout.

Favorite Bet

  • Notre Dame +5.5
  • Wyoming +14.5

This is a classic two-team parlay at +256. Wyoming is playing an unmotivated Fresno State, and Notre Dame has its best matchup of the year vs. their biggest rival.

If you feel frisky and want to live a little, betting both Notre Dame and Wyoming ML together will pay a juicy +1400.

You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our new article geared towards totals that will be released for the first week. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!

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