College Football Week 13 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)
We’ve come to the final full weekend of another exciting college football season. Week 13 is always an interesting week with rivalry matchups and teams either fighting for conference title shots or bowl eligibility. These spots breed longshot upsets. Let’s dig into this slate of games and find some last longshot winners in the 2022 season.
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 13 College Football Power Rankings >>
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend’s games. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line,†and ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.†Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.
South Carolina +14.5 at Clemson
A few weeks ago, I’d have never sniffed this rivalry game. South Carolina was dead, and their offense was unable to score. Clemson’s defense had been susceptible to explosive offenses like we saw against Wake Forest, Florida State, and Notre Dame. The Gamecocks, however, had not shown me anything that made me believe they could exploit this Clemson unit. Then last Saturday happened.
South Carolina’s offense woke up in a huge explosion. Former 5-star quarterback Spencer Rattler had a career performance as the Gamecocks scored 63 on a Tennessee defense that couldn’t do anything to slow them down. Like Rattler showed at Oklahoma, he rides hot and cold streaks more than most quarterbacks in the country. Now that he has the offense rolling, I expect them to keep that up in this matchup.
Clemson has everything to play for still. They sit just outside the College Football Playoff top 4, and winning out, with a little bit of help from TCU, USC, or the Big Ten, still gives them a strong shot at sneaking in. However, there’s a reason that they’re on the outside looking in, even with one loss. Clemson has escaped defeat in the final minutes against Wake Forest and Syracuse, both teams that haven’t impressed much outside of those matchups. They were outplayed and outmanned by Notre Dame in a beating. They’ve been a bit of a paper tiger.
South Carolina has some swagger and momentum heading into this matchup. If the offense can fire on all cylinders, there is little Clemson can do to stop them. I’ll take the big dog here and back a South Carolina team looking to pick up a rare win over a Clemson team that has recently dominated the rivalry.
Pick: South Carolina ML (+450)
Michigan +7.5 at Ohio State
The newest installment of perhaps the most storied rivalry in college football pits both programs against each other while undefeated for the first time since 2006. That matchup was also in Columbus and came down to the wire. I expect this one to come down to the wire as well.
Ohio State seemingly rode a historically good offense to this 11-0 start, but the fact is the offense has faded slightly. The Buckeyes have fallen from the top spot in SP+ offensive rankings down to fourth.
They’ve also surprisingly been outgained on offense in three of their last four games against the likes of Penn State, Northwestern, and Maryland. The defense has been very opportunistic in creating turnovers in short fields and scoring defensive touchdowns. So long as Michigan can avoid turning the ball over, they have a good shot at putting up points on the Buckeyes.
Michigan’s offense will be predicated on their powerful run game. There is some question about the health of Heisman hopeful Blake Corum after he left last week’s game with an apparent knee injury. It seems like he may be good to go in this game, giving Michigan a good chance to pull this one out.
With both teams fighting for a Big Ten East title and an inside track to the 2-seed in the College Football Playoffs, I expect both of these teams to come out with their best effort like this rivalry always brings out in them. Though Michigan will be on the road in a hostile environment, they only sit one spot behind Ohio State in the SP+ rankings, and this number is too long for two teams this close. I have to take Michigan on principle.
Pick: Michigan ML (+240)
Iowa State +10 at TCU
TCU will head into this final game looking for their first undefeated regular season since 2010. They’ve been led by an explosive offense ranking eighth in SP+. In typical Big 12 fashion, they’ve gotten into many shootouts where they’ve been able to edge out their opponents. Six of the last seven Horned Frog games have come down to a single possession late in the fourth quarter, including a walk-off field goal last week in Waco.
Iowa State has had a disappointing season by their recent standards. They won’t be bowl eligible, but I don’t foresee this being an issue, as Matt Campbell has always found a way to keep his squads motivated over the years. What better motivation than to play spoilers to TCU’s perfect season?
The Cyclones are built for this too. They don’t have the explosive and efficient offense they had the past few years, now without Brock Purdy and Breece Hall, but their defense is one of the most elite units in the nation. It’s a fifth-ranked unit per SP+ and has given the big play Big 12 offenses fits all season, holding each of the last seven opponents to 27 or fewer points.
With potential injuries to the TCU offense, including wide receiver, they could find it more difficult to score on the Cyclones as they have other conference opponents. This change of pace in-game script against an Iowa State team treating this as their Super Bowl may be enough to get the Horned Frogs off their game and spell a heartbreaking end to an otherwise memorable 2022 season.
Pick: Iowa State ML (+285)
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