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College Football Week 13 Totals Best Bets & IsoPPP (2022)

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This article’s focus is to take a look at betting totals in a more nuanced approach. Instead of being like, ” The over/under is 65 points. Team A scores 35 ppg, and Team B scores 40 ppg. I’ll take the over.” We will use several advanced statistics and techniques that might be overlooked in the betting landscape.  So let’s dive into a quick overview of what we will focus on.

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Overview

The average over/under total for a college football game is 57.5 points, regardless of the teams, pace, weather, etc. The common thought process for most bettors and fans will be to look at the Redzone statistics and see if you have two efficient teams who convert into a lot of TDs. Now while that is a fine thought process, it is indeed incredibly archaic. The difference between the best team in the Redzone and the worst team in the Redzone isn’t that significant because you are only dealing with 20 yards of variance. Also, looking at efficiency on points on a per-game basis assumes each game will be the same, which is entirely false. You need to look at it from an opportunity standpoint with more variance. We will use several advanced statistics to measure how successful the game environment is: PPO (Points Per Opportunity), IsoPPP (explosive plays), Pace, Rush Rate, Projected PPO, and Projected PPO difference.

PPO, also known as finishing drives, is a statistic that extends the “Redzone” from the 20-yard line to the 40-yard line. An incredible 78 percent of a college football game points are scored inside the opponent’s 40-yard lines. I know you are saying, ” Well yeah, that’s not surprising. ” The great thing is that’s a predictable point of emphasis. We can predict PPO based on the offensive/defensive matchup. Essentially you can look at a total and say, ” The projected PPO needed for this total is X, and that is a difference of +/- what we need.” This will determine whether or not to lean over or under on a total. Now the other 22 percent of points scored are volatile, but that’s where IsoPPP (explosive plays) come in. We can simplify betting over/under by looking at it from a numbers-needed standpoint and building the game script with other advanced statistics.

Glossary

  • PPO (Points Per Opportunity): Points scored on each drive inside an opponent’s 40-yard line
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays typically over 20 yards for passing plays and over 15 yards for rushing plays
  • PPO Projected: Projected opportunity points that are matchup adjusted
  • PPO Projected Difference: The difference in opportunity points on average for a team vs. their projected matchup
  • PPO Projected Total Difference: Projected opportunity points difference needed to reach the total. Positive difference would lean over, and negative difference leans under
  • Rush Rate: The percentage of times a team rushes the ball
  • Pace of Play: Plays/sec a higher ranking means a faster pace of play

Let’s dive into the eight games we will target this week.

Utah State @ Boise State (51.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 35.5
  • Projected PPO difference -4 pts
  • Both teams average Off Rush IsoPPP
  • Utah State 23rd Rush Rate
  • Boise State 30th Rush Rate
  • Utah State 16th Pace of Play
  • Boise State 89th Pace of Play

NC State @ UNC (55.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 49.5
  • Projected PPO difference +7 pts
  • UNC top 10 Off IsoPPP matchup
  • UNC Top 30 Off Rush IsoPPP matchup
  • UNC Top 30 Off Pass IsoPPP matchup
  • NC State 86th Rush Rate
  • NC State 91st Pace of Play
  • UNC 95th Rush Rate
  • UNC 20th Pace of Play

Georgia State @ Marshall (45.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 30 pts
  • Projected PPO difference -5 pts
  • Marshall bottom 40 Off IsoPPP matchup
  • Marshall bottom 40 Off Pass IsoPPP matchup
  • Georgia State 6th Rush Rate
  • Georgia State 15th Pace of Play
  • Marshall 8th Rush Rate
  • Marshall 47th Pace of Play

South Carolina @ Clemson (51.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 47.5
  • Projected PPO difference +7.5 pts
  • South Carolina Top 30 Off IsoPPP matchup
  • South Carolina Top 30 Off Pass IsoPPP matchup
  • South Carolina 73rd Rush Rate
  • South Carolina 92nd Pace of Play
  • Clemson 38th Rush Rate
  • Clemson 56th Pace of Play

Auburn @ Alabama (49.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 46
  • Projected PPO difference +8 pts
  • Average IsoPPP matchups for both teams
  • Auburn 15th Rush Rate
  • Auburn 86th Pace of Play
  • Alabama 107th Rush Rate
  • Alabama 52nd Pace of Play

Iowa State @ TCU (47.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 42.5
  • Projected PPO difference +6 pts
  • Average IsoPPP matchups for both teams
  • Iowa State 119th Rush Rate
  • Iowa State 78th Pace of Play
  • TCU 57th Rush Rate
  • TCU 87th Pace of Play

UCF @ South Florida (68.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 47
  • Projected PPO difference -6 pts
  • UCF Top 10 Off Rush IsoPPP matchup
  • South Florida Top 20 Off Rush IsoPPP matchup
  • UCF 35th Rush Rate
  • UCF 32nd Pace of Play
  • South Florida 36th Rush Rate
  • South Florida 92nd Pace of Play

Pittsburgh @ Miami (43.5)

  • Projected PPO combined points 40.5
  • Projected PPO difference +7 pts
  • Pittsburgh Top 30 Off Pass IsoPPP matchup
  • Miami Average IsoPPP matchups
  • Pittsburgh 28th Rush Rate
  • Pittsburgh 109th Pace of Play
  • Miami 92nd Rush Rate
  • Miami 79th Pace of Play

The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the eight games we are going to target this week:

  • Utah State/Boise State under 51.5
  • NC State/UNC over 55.5
  • Georgia State/Marshall under 45.5
  • South Carolina/Clemson over 51.5
  • Auburn/Alabama over 49.5
  • Iowa State/TCU over 47.5
  • UCF/ South Florida under 68.5
  • Pittsburgh/Miami over 43.5

Boise State vs. Utah State stands out to me because it’s exactly what we look for in a potential under-game. The projected PPO is negative, and both are rush-heavy teams in middling IsoPPP matchups. Utah State does play at a higher pace than we would like, but that’s not going to scare me off. This should be a slog.

South Carolina vs. Clemson is the perfect recipe for a shootout. Like last week, South Carolina will have fortuitous IsoPPP matchups across the board. These potential big plays will drive Clemson to play at an even faster pace. Neither team plays at an incredible pace for an over, but the total is below average, and that plays right into our wheelhouse with a +8 PPO difference.

Georgia State vs. Marshall sets up to be possibly one of the most boring games on the slate, which is great for our under. Both teams have top-10 rush rates. The only negative is they play at above-average paces, but neither are in optimal IsoPPP matchups. A lot of these drives are going to stall in field goal range.

You can target these matchups with teasers or in general small parlays.

Favorite Plays

  • Georgia State/Marshall under 45.5
  • NC State/UNC over 55.5

Classic two-team parlay +256. We have two matchups that are optimal for the angles we are targeting. You can mix and match if you like. I’m not a proponent of teasing totals, as the value is infinitely less than spreads, but if you want some action, that is a technique you can apply.

You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Good luck with your bets this weekend, and Happy Thanksgiving!!!!

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