College Football Week 2: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions (2022)
Here’s an early look at College Football Week 2 spreads, along with my projections. We’ll run through major injuries that are affecting spreads and hit on games you might want to consider betting early in the week due to expected line movement.
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend’s games. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†Spreads are from the perspective of the home team, i.e. a negative number means the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.†Projected totals are based on 2021 data and do not account for personnel or schematic changes (ie bring that with you to your handicap)
* Projected totals coming soon
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 2 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 2: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions
| Away | Home | ATL | Spread | Value | Day |
| Louisville | UCF | -4.7 | -5 | 0.3 | Friday |
| Boise St. | New Mexico | 22.4 | 17 | 5.4 | Friday |
| Alabama | Texas | 14.5 | 18 | -3.5 | Saturday |
| Arkansas St. | Ohio St. | -44.5 | -44.5 | 0.0 | Saturday |
| Southern Miss | Miami (FL) | -26.5 | -25.5 | -1.0 | Saturday |
| South Carolina | Arkansas | -9.7 | -9 | -0.7 | Saturday |
| Wake Forest | Vanderbilt | 8.8 | 6.5 | 2.3 | Saturday |
| Missouri | Kansas St. | -7.1 | -8 | 0.9 | Saturday |
| Duke | Northwestern | -13.4 | -8 | -5.4 | Saturday |
| Ohio | Penn St. | -31.2 | -25.5 | -5.7 | Saturday |
| North Carolina | Georgia St. | 10.0 | 9 | 1.0 | Saturday |
| UTSA | Army | -0.1 | 2 | -2.1 | Saturday |
| South Alabama | Central Michigan | -6.1 | -6 | -0.1 | Saturday |
| Western Michigan | Ball St. | 4.9 | 6.5 | -1.6 | Saturday |
| Marshall | Notre Dame | -19.9 | -19 | -0.9 | Saturday |
| Appalachian St. | Texas A&M | -14.8 | -16.5 | 1.7 | Saturday |
| Tennessee | Pittsburgh | 0.2 | 4.5 | -4.3 | Saturday |
| Washington St. | Wisconsin | -18.4 | -17 | -1.4 | Saturday |
| Colorado | Air Force | -14.4 | -14.5 | 0.1 | Saturday |
| Memphis | Navy | 8.4 | 6.5 | 1.9 | Saturday |
| Maryland | Charlotte | 20.3 | 25.5 | -5.2 | Saturday |
| Akron | Michigan St. | -36.3 | -34 | -2.3 | Saturday |
| Iowa St. | Iowa | -6.5 | -3.5 | -3.0 | Saturday |
| Houston | Texas Tech | 0.2 | -3 | 3.2 | Saturday |
| UNLV | California | -12.4 | -13.5 | 1.1 | Saturday |
| Virginia | Illinois | 1.1 | -3.5 | 4.6 | Saturday |
| Middle Tennessee | Colorado St. | -4.0 | -7.5 | 3.5 | Saturday |
| Old Dominion | East Carolina | -11.4 | -11 | -0.4 | Saturday |
| UAB | Liberty | 1.6 | 4 | -2.4 | Saturday |
| Kansas | West Virginia | -12.3 | -14 | 1.7 | Saturday |
| Kent St. | Oklahoma | -32.4 | -31 | -1.4 | Saturday |
| Kentucky | Florida | -2.6 | -5.5 | 2.9 | Saturday |
| Massachusetts | Toledo | -29.9 | -29 | -0.9 | Saturday |
| Northern Illinois | Tulsa | -3.4 | -6.5 | 3.1 | Saturday |
| Eastern Michigan | Louisiana | -8.8 | -11.5 | 2.7 | Saturday |
| Florida International | Texas St. | -12.3 | -10.5 | -1.8 | Saturday |
| Syracuse | Connecticut | 25.4 | 20.5 | 4.9 | Saturday |
| Arizona St. | Oklahoma St. | -8.7 | -11 | 2.3 | Saturday |
| USC | Stanford | 11.2 | 10.5 | 0.7 | Saturday |
| San Jose St. | Auburn | -21.9 | -21.5 | -0.4 | Saturday |
| Georgia Southern | Nebraska | -20.7 | -21 | 0.3 | Saturday |
| Hawai’i | Michigan | -43.8 | -48.5 | 4.7 | Saturday |
| Boston College | Virginia Tech | -3.2 | -3.5 | 0.3 | Saturday |
| Baylor | Brigham Young | -3.0 | -2.5 | -0.5 | Saturday |
| New Mexico St. | UTEP | -13.6 | -13 | -0.6 | Saturday |
| Oregon St. | Fresno St. | -2.3 | 1 | -3.3 | Saturday |
| Mississippi St. | Arizona | 14.1 | 7.5 | 6.6 | Saturday |
College Football Game Previews & News
Boise St. (-17) at New Mexico (Friday)
ATL: BSU -22.4
Referees ejected New Mexico LB Alec Marenco in the second half of a win over an FCS opponent for targeting. He will miss the first half of Friday’s game against Boise State. Marenco is a rotational linebacker and special teamer.
Boise has more pressing personnel issues. Two key contributors were carted into the tunnel in last Saturday’s ugly loss to Oregon State, rotational WR Austin Bolt, and top CB Markel Reed. Bolt broke his leg and is done for the year.
Reed’s status is less clear at the moment, but his odds of playing this weekend wouldn’t seem to be great. Reed also missed a little more than half of last season due to injuries.
But that’s not all in Bronco land, folks. HC Andy Avalos benched QB Hank Bachmeier following three first-half turnovers in the loss to the Beavers. The offense gained 22 yards in the 17 snaps Bachmeier took.
Frosh QB Taylen Green took over and impressed, becoming the first Broncos quarterback since 2014 to rush for more than 100 yards. He finished 19-of-28 for 155 yards and an INT while rushing for 102 yards and two TD on 11 attempts.
Avalos may not announce a starting quarterback for Friday’s game until gameday. Stay tuned.
TCU vs. Tarleton State
ATL: N/A
TCU QB Chandler Morris left last Friday’s 38-13 win over Colorado with a knee injury. Coaches ruled out Morris for Saturday’s game against Tarleton, and early reports suggest he could miss a month.
QB2 Max Duggan, the former starter, relieved Morris and outplayed him, sparking the offense. Morris, more of the pocket-passer, went a meager 13-of-20 for 111 yards. Duggan only attempted three passes, completing two for 27 yards, but he abused the Buffs on the ground for 41 yards on three carries.
Duggan is bigger, more athletic, and a more productive runner than Morris and also has a stronger arm. But Duggan has always struggled with turnovers and accuracy. He won’t be tested in that regard this weekend.
But it’ll be worth checking in on this game to see how Duggan is acclimating in the pocket to HC Sonny Dykes’ Air Raid system. That’s intel we can use later this month.
Texas Tech (-3) vs. Houston
ATL: UH -0.2
My system sees value in the underdog. And that’s before taking into consideration that the favorite, Texas Tech, is going to be without its starting quarterback.
QB1 Tyler Shough exited last Saturday’s 63-10 victory over Murray State in the first quarter with a left shoulder injury. It’s the same shoulder he underwent season-ending surgery on last September. Tech HC Joey McGuire said after the game that the team’s medical staff was still working on a diagnosis.
“[W]e can’t tell if it’s an AC joint or collarbone, like where (the injury is),†McGuire said. “We’re hoping it’s AC, but that’s really sore to play with. You’re not playing quarterback with an AC (injury) for a couple of weeks. If it’s collarbone, it’d probably be, depending on what it is, four to six weeks. And, man, I hate it for him.†So you can expect Shough to miss between 2-6 weeks.
If there’s one bit of good news for the Red Raiders, it’s that they are far more equipped to deal with Shough’s injury this season than they were last year. That’s because last season’s injury opened the door for QB Donovan Smith, who started the last four games of 2021 and won the Liberty Bowl MVP award. Smith was exceptional on Saturday, going 14-of-16 for 221 yards and four TD.
Tech even has depth behind Smith, in the form of former four-star recruit QB Behren Morton. Morton entered Saturday’s blowout midway through the third quarter and went 7-of-10 for 97 yards, a TD, and an INT.
The Red Raiders did get good injury news on CB Adrian Frye, who left last week’s game with a thigh contusion in the first half. McGuire told reporters he believes Frye will be ready for Saturday’s game against Houston.
Ohio St. (-44.5) vs. Arkansas St.
ATL: OSU -44.5
Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba exited Saturday’s win over Notre Dame after one half. Smith-Njigba took a big hit near the sidelines in the first quarter. His helmet popped off, and he landed awkwardly. According to the broadcast, Smith-Njigba tweaked his left knee/hamstring area.
Smith-Njigba briefly exited the game, returned for one series in the second quarter, and then was pulled, perhaps for precautionary reasons. He spent some of the second half riding an exercise bike and running some sprints on the sidelines.
HC Ryan Day expressed optimism to reporters that Smith-Njigba will be able to return this weekend for the game against Arkansas State.
SMU vs. Lamar
ATL: N/A
SMU starting slot WR Jake Bailey exited Saturday’s win over North Texas with an undisclosed injury. Bailey spent a few weeks of fall camp in a non-contact jersey after suffering a shoulder injury in early August. It’s unclear if he’ll need to miss time. Bailey snagged a Rice-leading 56 catches for 714 yards and two TD last year before transferring over.
SMU also spent Saturday without RB Velton Gardner, a Kansas transfer, after Gardner suffered an unspecified injury in pregame workouts. Similarly to Bailey, we don’t have any more details than that right now.
UAB (-4) at Liberty
ATL: UAB -1.6
Liberty QB Charlie Brewer will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken hand suffered in Saturday’s OT win over Southern Miss. Liberty signed Brewer, who threw for over 10,000 yards during his time at Baylor and Utah, over the offseason to replace Malik Willis in the starting lineup.
HC Hugh Freeze gave QB Johnathan Bennett a twirl once Brewer got hurt. Bennett went 7-for-18 for 38 yards. But frosh QB Kedon Salter looked awesome when his number was called, going 8-for-13 for 148 yards and two TD, along with 65 rushing yards. Salter is a former top-160 overall recruit, per the 247Consensus.
A track and field athlete in high school, Salter starred in the 300-meter hurdles, high jump, long jump, and triple jump. Analysts compared him to Jayden Daniels coming out of the prep ranks (at the time, this was a compliment). Normally schools like Liberty don’t have access to this caliber of recruit. Still, Salter was forced out of Tennessee following an arrest in connection with an assault and burglary shortly after signing.
You’d have to imagine Salter will take the field with the starters on Saturday against UAB. His game is far more similar to Willis’ than Brewer’s, so the staff shouldn’t have a tough time adapting to the unexpected change.
Texas St. (-10.5) vs. Florida International
ATL: TSU -12.3
FIU QB Gunnar Holmberg is doubtful to play after suffering a concussion in last week’s 38-37 OT win over FCS Bryant. Holmberg, a Duke transfer, was one of the program’s top portal signings over the offseason.
After he was pulled, QB2 Grayson James actually outplayed Holmberg. James went 16-of-31 for 207 yards and four TD, including three fourth-quarter touchdowns and the game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.
Holmberg’s status hasn’t been updated yet, but it would appear doubtful that he’ll be able to start on Saturday.
Miami (FL) (-25.5) vs. Southern Miss
ATL: Miami -26.5
Southern Miss’ starting quarterback also suffered a concussion last week. USM QB Ty Keyes was knocked out of the OT loss to Liberty.
From media quotes, it sounds like Keyes has a better shot of a quick bounce-back than Holmberg. HC Will Hall told reporters on Monday that Keyes has a shot to play against Miami but wouldn’t discuss Keyes’ prognosis with any more specificity than that.
Cincinnati vs. Kennesaw State
ATL: N/A
Pundits expected LSU transfer RB Corey Kiner to run away with the starting job in camp but didn’t. Instead, Ryan Montgomery was named RB1 of an expected committee approach.
But Montgomery was knocked out of Saturday’s loss to Arkansas with an unspecified injury after gaining only seven yards on four carries. Kiner was impressive in his action, converting 12 carries into 59 yards and a TD.
Regardless of Montgomery’s status for this coming weekend, I would expect Kiner to draw the start.
BYU (-2.5) vs. Baylor
ATL: BYU -3.0
Last week, BYU played without WR Gunner Romney due to an undisclosed injury. So the Cougs got WR Puka Nacua involved early, calling a pair of jet sweeps in the first quarter against USF that both ended in Nacua touchdowns.
The third time BYU dialed up a Nakua jet sweep, USF was ready, swarming Nakua. Nakua was slow to get up. He later emerged from the injury tent with a walking boot on his right foot, ending his night.
BYU HC Kalani Sitake called the decision to remove Nakua from the game “precautionary†and indicated that Nakua’s initial X-Rays looked good.
Nakua and Romney’s statuses both bear monitoring for bettors interested in investing in this fascinating early-season matchup.
Five early-week spreads of interest
Syracuse (-20.5) at UConn
ATL: Cuse -25.4
The Orange were one of the pleasant surprises of Week 1, blasting Louisville 31-7. It appears Syracuse’s passing game and defense have both taken a large step forward since the end of last season.
That performance should have gotten Syracuse upgraded in power rankings. But the sportsbooks appear to have overlooked that with this opening number, dropping a spread more indicative of preseason outlooks for both teams.
There’s a line value on Syracuse at this number – I expect it to be closer to my adjusted number of -25.4 by kickoff.
Tennessee (-4.5) at Pittsburgh
ATL: Tenn -0.2
The sportsbooks and betting market believe Tennessee is a decent amount better than Pittsburgh to favor the Vols by four and a hook on the road. My numbers believe this game should be a pick ‘em. Both teams looked fine in Week 1, with Tennessee racing by Ball State and Pitt outlasting West Virginia.
Pitt will spend the week trying to determine the status of a pair of key contributors. RB ​​Rodney Hammond Jr. suffered a right leg injury on a helmet-to-helmet targeting call in the win over the Mountaineers. Hammond was in a walking boot after the game but vowed he would play against Tennessee. Hammond was a breakout star against WVU, posting 129 scrimmage yards and two TD.
DL Deslin Alexandre also suffered a lower-body injury against West Virginia that ended his day early. Coaches and teammates both expressed optimism to reporters in the postgame that Alexander would be fine for Saturday’s game against Tennessee.
Illinois (-3.5) at Virginia
ATL: UVA -1.1
This is the second-straight week the books have opened Illinois with a weird number. Last week, it was opening the Illini as four-point underdogs to Indiana, what appeared to be a mistake line. Illini gagged away a win late and lost 23-20 but covered most spread tickets purchased through mid-week.
This week, the books have surprisingly swung the other way, despite Illinois’ late-game collapse. This time, it’s the Illini getting too much respect. My numbers say Virginia should be favored. Matchup-wise, Illinois is going to have issues with Virginia’s high-octane passing attack.
Mississippi St. (-7.5) at Arizona
ATL: MSU -14.1
Last week, I backed Arizona as a 6.5-point underdog to San Diego State. I loved what HC Jedd Fisch did over the offseason, adding a top-25 recruiting class and multiple marquee transfer portal acquisitions. Arizona went out and stunned San Diego State 38-20.
The books overreacted to that upset win, opening the Wildcats as only 7.5-point home underdogs to Mississippi State. MSU looked just as good as Arizona did last week, blasting Memphis.
It’s just that Mike Leach’s crew remains several steps above Arizona, qualitatively. Arizona, which has had secondary issues in recent years, is going to have its hands full with Leach’s Air Raid. Leach’s offensive strategy is the polar opposite of San Diego State’s downhill-running ethos.
Oregon St. (-1) at Fresno St.
ATL: FSU -2.3
Another instance where I think the books opened the wrong team as the favorite.
Oregon State looked incredible in the opener, racing out to a 24-0 lead over Boise State at halftime in an eventual 34-17 win. But BSU QB Hank Bachmeier’s nightmare performance greatly aided the Beavs.
Bachmeier had almost as many first-half turnovers (three) as he had completions (four). The game was already, for all practical purposes, over by the time Bachmeier was yanked.
Fresno didn’t have a similar opportunity to impress the betting public, playing an FCS opponent (35-7 win). But we can’t forget that the Bulldogs have one of the most devastating aerial attacks in the nation, led by QB Jake Haener and a deep group of receivers.
Oregon State’s pass defense was No. 82 EPA/pass in 2021. Bachmeier’s dud flattered the Beavs. Haener should provide a market correction in that regard.
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